January 2019 - Active Progressive WX Pattern Ahead

[Cpv17]

18z GFS is now onboard also

I want to see some of this energy further west..bulk of it looks to be over Louisiana and Mississippi on the models right now.

[harp]

GFS still not showing any big arctic dump through January 12th. Somewhat discouraging.

[Cpv17]

GFS still not showing any big arctic dump through January 12th. Somewhat discouraging.

I don’t give much credence to the old GFS. The new GFS FV3 and the Euro are the way to go these days.

[harp]

GFS still not showing any big arctic dump through January 12th. Somewhat discouraging.

I don’t give much credence to the old GFS. The new GFS FV3 and the Euro are the way to go these days.

I hope you are right.

[CRASHWX]

Well as it gets closer the models should get a better handle on temps. As of now they tend to under shoot so my gut tells me the trends continue as long as the models keep the cold air

[CRASHWX]

Would not be suprised to see it go away for a few runs and then reappear off and on and then lock up if the the short range community starts showing wintery weather mischief...we will see...

[CRASHWX]

Two things models are underestimating the cold and the mix is gonna tango around for the next 3 days until the high res meso’s can get in on the party.

[Cpv17]

Two things models are underestimating the cold and the mix is gonna tango around for the next 3 days until the high res meso’s can get in on the party.

I’m not liking how the precip next week appears to be mainly north and east of us...

[CRASHWX]

Two things models are underestimating the cold and the mix is gonna tango around for the next 3 days until the high res meso’s can get in on the party.

I’m not liking how the precip next week appears to be mainly north and east of us...

Models are not finished locking in yet still a lot to process

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Two things models are underestimating the cold and the mix is gonna tango around for the next 3 days until the high res meso’s can get in on the party.

I’m not liking how the precip next week appears to be mainly north and east of us...

No worries... I’ll be in Florida where it will be 80 so it will happen. Haha

[CRASHWX]

Two things models are underestimating the cold and the mix is gonna tango around for the next 3 days until the high res meso’s can get in on the party.

I’m not liking how the precip next week appears to be mainly north and east of us...

No worries... I’ll be in Florida where it will be 80 so it will happen. Haha

That’s funny because we came to Branson Missouri to have Christmas and have to come home to possibly see frozen precip! LMBO

[harp]

If we could combine the CMC's cold with the GFS's precip, we'd be in business next week. GFS does not want the cold to come spilling out of Canada. The CMC, however, loves it. Two completely opposite scenarios.

[CRASHWX]

If we could combine the CMC's cold with the GFS's precip, we'd be in business next week. GFS does not want the cold to come spilling out of Canada. The CMC, however, loves it. Two completely opposite scenarios.

Look I can not stand wish casting but I think legitimately one can say the models especially the GFS tend to always underestimate the temps and drive of shallow cold air masses. Or maybe they over do the modification and under do the down slope drive of the mass....not sure if those are accurate terms or not...maybe one of the pro guys can better articulate what I am trying to say

[don]

Yes,if we can get temps 5-10 degrees colder we would be in business as the latest GFS and last nights EURO show plenty of mouisture to work with. The blizzard happening over the plains could also help with less air modification due to the snow pack. It will be interesting once we get in range of the mesoscale models as the global models (especially the GFS) often underestimate shallow cold air.

[srainhoutx]

Big differences among the various Global models with the handling of that upper trough and shortwave at 500mb. We will need to wait until Sunday/Monday before we will likely see a solution that is more realistic...

12Z GFS

12Z FV3 GFS

Canadian

[CRASHWX]

your as always our winter events seem present themselves 3-4 days out and then get more defined

[Cpv17]

With the way things are looking right now for SETX, it looks like moisture will be limited and temps will be 5-10 degrees too warm for any frozen precip. Greatest chance right now is the NE quadrant of the state. There’s still plenty of time though for things to change in our favor.

[CRASHWX]

Again I’m gonna go with over est. temps don’t know about moisture

[Cpv17]

0z GFS has a tad bit more moisture to work with for next Wednesday. We’ll see what the FV3 and Euro have to say soon.

[harp]

0z GFS has a tad bit more moisture to work with for next Wednesday. We’ll see what the FV3 and Euro have to say soon.

Yeah, but it's a blast furnace pretty much through the run.