January 2019 - Active Progressive WX Pattern Ahead

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Since the first 3 days of January are showing up in the long range, let’s kick off what could be a very exciting weather month in the HGX area.

[Andrew]

GEFS still showing some wind reversal at the end of the month.

[vci_guy2003]

Andrew - what does this mean ?

[Andrew]

Andrew - what does this mean ?

Those winds are associated with a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event that could lead to colder temperatures for part of Europe and the Eastern United States depending on where it sets up and how strong it is. The GEFS is coming in a little more aggressive that the west to east flow we normally see could reverse direction some by the beginning of the New Year. If that happens it could open the door for colder air.

[srainhoutx]

The afternoon Updated Climate Prediction Center Outlook through mid January.

[GBinGrimes]

This will be a very long stretch of the imagination and wish-casting!!

This morning while in the deer stand I saw 2 separate, massive flocks of small black birds flying south. Both made the sound of approaching rain and wind. The numbers of birds was far into the 10's of thousands in each flock. It was amazing to hear and see.

I will now interpret that into we will have blizzard conditions within the next 2 weeks. Ha!!

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to everyone! It is so nice to know that this site has a permanent future.

[CRASHWX]

Cold is coming and it could be severe...JMO...been looking at several sites and watched several forecast and all point to big changes brewing

[harp]

The GFS has been trending back to warm again. Unbelievable. No consistency at all and very puzzling.

[CRASHWX]

So many moving parts globally the models are have a tough time locking in on a solution. I think maybe mathematical models have issues when complex changes occur...I think maybe one has to look at the past and see the future...models may not lock and load till a week out. Time will tell

[harp]

The FV-3 GFS dumps the cold southward. Almost opposite of the regular GFS. Go figure.....

[CRASHWX]

Go look at Joe Bastardi on weatherbell.com scroll down click on his mug and let his videos load and watch Sat update it’s veru detailed

[Belmer]

I know we all get impatient with the lack of model support/consistency in the medium and long range but wanted to share these images and sounding. The Stratospheric warming is pretty much at the peak for 10hPa level. We are looking at temperatures of around +10C and up to about 30km in the atmosphere. The sounding below is from Vitim Airport in Russia showing the the sharp rise in temperatures once in the Stratosphere.

Models will continue to be volatile as this pattern continues to evolve and shift around. Any forecast 7+ days out is rather pointless as models will continue to sway back and forth to extremes (just like at the old GFS vs new GFSFV3).

So for those that live and die by every model run... use them cautiously at this time as confidence in the forecast beyond the New Year is uncertain. Regardless of what our weather may be heading into 2019, I don't see any significant cold heading down this way... certainly not as cold as last year when we were getting down into the teens (January 17, 2018). But the possibilities are there for mid January into early February for a cooler and wetter period. Just whether that 'wetter' scenario brings any liquid fun is the $64,000 question...

*Edit to add - in case anyone was wondering where I got the charts from, I like to use this site from time to time when looking at events such as the SSW (wxcharts.eu).
The University of Wyoming also has a neat site to pull soundings from - (http://weather.uwyo.edu/)

[CRASHWX]

812D408B-B007-4806-B840-4E4B8C28B669.jpeg

Analog years in the Same Years / GFS snow cove

[harp]

Can you explain this? Thanks.

[CRASHWX]

In the first pic you see the analog years at the top...it’s just showing when you have all the same atmospheric indicators lining up like the MJO moving through phase 6-7-8 and neg AO and pos PNA that is the way the Temps line up. In other words you are looking at all of those years lining up behind what is currently happening and then where it went. The other is just an ensemble mean of the GFS I believe which starts showing support for the future changes. Like I said before go to weatherbell.com and look at the daily update under JB...scroll down and click on his pic and let videos load the public videos are at the top.

[harp]

Thanks. He hasn't done an update today the last time I looked.

[Cpv17]

Thanks. He hasn't done an update today the last time I looked.

He did his daily update a few hours ago. It’s there because I just watched it.

[harp]

Ok, I will go look. Thanks again.

[harp]

JB seems pretty confident.

[CRASHWX]

JB seems pretty confident.

He has been on it for couple of weeks...every since he saw the storms go off in the Indian Ocean