Well as it gets closer the models should get a better handle on temps. As of now they tend to under shoot so my gut tells me the trends continue as long as the models keep the cold air
Would not be suprised to see it go away for a few runs and then reappear off and on and then lock up if the the short range community starts showing wintery weather mischief...we will see...
Two things models are underestimating the cold and the mix is gonna tango around for the next 3 days until the high res meso’s can get in on the party.
CRASHWX wrote: ↑Fri Dec 28, 2018 1:53 am
Two things models are underestimating the cold and the mix is gonna tango around for the next 3 days until the high res meso’s can get in on the party.
I’m not liking how the precip next week appears to be mainly north and east of us...
CRASHWX wrote: ↑Fri Dec 28, 2018 1:53 am
Two things models are underestimating the cold and the mix is gonna tango around for the next 3 days until the high res meso’s can get in on the party.
I’m not liking how the precip next week appears to be mainly north and east of us...
Models are not finished locking in yet still a lot to process
CRASHWX wrote: ↑Fri Dec 28, 2018 1:53 am
Two things models are underestimating the cold and the mix is gonna tango around for the next 3 days until the high res meso’s can get in on the party.
I’m not liking how the precip next week appears to be mainly north and east of us...
No worries... I’ll be in Florida where it will be 80 so it will happen. Haha
CRASHWX wrote: ↑Fri Dec 28, 2018 1:53 am
Two things models are underestimating the cold and the mix is gonna tango around for the next 3 days until the high res meso’s can get in on the party.
I’m not liking how the precip next week appears to be mainly north and east of us...
No worries... I’ll be in Florida where it will be 80 so it will happen. Haha
That’s funny because we came to Branson Missouri to have Christmas and have to come home to possibly see frozen precip! LMBO
If we could combine the CMC's cold with the GFS's precip, we'd be in business next week. GFS does not want the cold to come spilling out of Canada. The CMC, however, loves it. Two completely opposite scenarios.
harp wrote: ↑Fri Dec 28, 2018 10:32 am
If we could combine the CMC's cold with the GFS's precip, we'd be in business next week. GFS does not want the cold to come spilling out of Canada. The CMC, however, loves it. Two completely opposite scenarios.
Look I can not stand wish casting but I think legitimately one can say the models especially the GFS tend to always underestimate the temps and drive of shallow cold air masses. Or maybe they over do the modification and under do the down slope drive of the mass....not sure if those are accurate terms or not...maybe one of the pro guys can better articulate what I am trying to say
Yes,if we can get temps 5-10 degrees colder we would be in business as the latest GFS and last nights EURO show plenty of mouisture to work with. The blizzard happening over the plains could also help with less air modification due to the snow pack. It will be interesting once we get in range of the mesoscale models as the global models (especially the GFS) often underestimate shallow cold air.
Big differences among the various Global models with the handling of that upper trough and shortwave at 500mb. We will need to wait until Sunday/Monday before we will likely see a solution that is more realistic...
12Z GFS
12282018 12Z GFS 96 gfs_z500_vort_us_17.png
12Z FV3 GFS
12282018 12Z FV GFS 96 fv3p_z500_vort_us_17.png
Canadian
12282018 12Z CMC 96 gem_z500_vort_us_17.png
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
With the way things are looking right now for SETX, it looks like moisture will be limited and temps will be 5-10 degrees too warm for any frozen precip. Greatest chance right now is the NE quadrant of the state. There’s still plenty of time though for things to change in our favor.
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 28, 2018 10:25 pm
0z GFS has a tad bit more moisture to work with for next Wednesday. We’ll see what the FV3 and Euro have to say soon.
Yeah, but it's a blast furnace pretty much through the run.
CRASHWX 
