June 2026

[Stratton20]

Noaa 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks call for a return to an active pattern down here

[Pas_Bon]

We need to ban high pressure from May - October, with exceptions for hurricanes in the Gulf.

[DoctorMu]

We need to ban high pressure from May - October, with exceptions for hurricanes in the Gulf.

Keep the ridges out at sea.

Interesting - the Euro and GFA AI 12Z iterations are picking up on the Easterlies disturbances and QPF under the high better than the canonical model and Ensembles. I approve the AI geek message for now.

I buy nothing the WPC is selling either way. They've been atrocious.

[DoctorMu]

Probably will not reach us, but the NW flow aloft has some perks - lower DP and ironically better chance of a high side runaway cell.

[Ptarmigan]

We need to ban high pressure from May - October, with exceptions for hurricanes in the Gulf.

I am with you on that.

[tireman4]

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=1

[DoctorMu]

The models have adjusted the high pressure next week a little east over TN so that the seabreeze Jul 1-3 comes ashore east of I-45. This easterlies setup could change again, so stay tuned.

Post July 4th, we could be back to a NW flow aloft.

[jasons2k]

Well, I’ll be getting reports from the relatives staying back at the house while we’re at the beach for awhile. The sprinklers will be on overdrive this week, then hopefully after the holiday, Texas gets into a wetter pattern while Florida maintains a typical summertime regime.

[DoctorMu]

Today's probably our last day of NW flow.

Beginning Monday, we're changing the script. It's an battle between an Eastern ridge (aka heat dome, aka temp. Death Ridge) and trough in the west. Texas is in the middle. Look for seasonable temps. However, there's just enough high pressure overhead to limit rainfall.

I'm still seeing some easterlie moisture and return flow under the eastern ridge where especially east of I-45 showers are possible.

If Jason is on the East Coast, he should expect no rain and temps in the mid to upper 90s (except on the beach). DC, Philly, NY should crack 100°F. It's rare when College Station is cooler than the East Coast so I'll sort of enjoy the schadenfreude.

July 4th weekend into the following week, the eastern ridge breaks down and potential disturbances and relatively unsettled weather (for summer) in SETX is possible..and slighly "cooler" temps (low 90s). Don't get too optimistic...but it could be worse. Next Sunday and Monday even have a chance of scattered showers.

[DoctorMu]

Well, I’ll be getting reports from the relatives staying back at the house while we’re at the beach for awhile. The sprinklers will be on overdrive this week, then hopefully after the holiday, Texas gets into a wetter pattern while Florida maintains a typical summertime regime.

Yeah, I had to run the damn sprinklers last night for the second time. And I'll have to fertilize with high nitrogen and 6% iron (Sta-Green, not the horrible Scotts) front and back. Our water is alkaline.

[tireman4]

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=1

[DoctorMu]

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=1

This morning was really humid without the NW flow...slightly less humid and a slight chance of sea breeze showers biased to the East beginning tomorrow. But for today, the worst of both worlds: Saharan dust + super humid.


Mid-lvl ridging over the Mississippi Valley will continue to
shift northeastward into the Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic by mid-week
before the Western US trough/eastern US ridge configuration begins
to break down Friday into the weekend.

As the SAL plume exits
to the north on Tuesday, sea-breeze induced convective coverage will
increase as PWATs increase into the 1.7 to 1.8 inch range, so
bumped up PoPs into the 20-35% range focused just inland of the
coast. Storm coverage in the mid to late week period will
generally be isolated-scattered and largely sea-breeze induced as
the weak disturbances progressing along the southern flank of the
ridge will focus higher rain chances over Louisiana and far east
Texas. Rain chances for the July 4th weekend look to be about
15-30% but confidence is not high in details at this time horizon.

Have they been cripping the board? lol

Hmmmm...it does say NC

The chance of rain is low...but the fat lady hasn't sung yet...or sat on us!

Stay cool!

[Stratton20]

Euro/ Euro AIFS/ CMC all see a return to a more daily/ active seabreeze shower with some weak embedded disturbances passing through the state the next 2 weeks. Decent rainfall totals and some cooler air look to be possible. Love to see it

[DoctorMu]

Nothing really new. Going as expected. The return flow may help later in the week. Seeing 20-40% chance of rain Sunday and Monday from the iPhone app, TWC. Grudging on board hedging from NOAA.

The discussion may have more leeway.

Most of the action (if there is any) will be likely east of I-45. CLL just hopes to catch a stray shower!


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
700 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Moderate to major heat risk today, with generally moderate heat
risk each day through Thursday. Peak heat index values between
103-108F (39-42C).

- High rip current risk along area beaches through Tuesday
morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

The SAL has been arriving through the morning hours across southeast
TX. Several sites have started reporting HZ over the last few hours.
In addition, several area webcams reveal hazy conditions. As a
result, opted to add in a mention of haze into the wx grids through
early Tuesday morning. This timing falls in line with the latest
GMAO GEOS dust concentration forecasts. We could see some lingering
hazy conditions on Tuesday but the concentration amounts do not look
to be as high.

The arrival of the SAL and continued subsidence will keep rain
chances limited once again today. With that said, there may be
enough low level moisture along with weak coastal convergence to
warrant a low chance for a shower or two. Coverage will be rather
spotty if anything does develop.

As we head through the remainder the week, the upper level ridge
axis will gradually shift north and east, opening the door for a few
upper level impulses to rotate around the southern periphery of the
ridge. A plume of slightly deeper moisture will move off the Gulf by
mid week. Guidance continues to keep the axis of deeper moisture
just off to our east. With that said, we will see a slight uptick in
rain chances, generally 20-40% during the afternoon hours. Overall,
coverage will be more isolated and largely sea-breeze induced.

The main weather concern continues to be the warm and humid
conditions across the region. High temps will warm into the mid 90s
each day outside of the immediate coast. There won`t be much relief
at night as lows only fall into the mid 70s to low 80s. Peak heat
indices should remain just below advisory criteria, generally 105-
107 degrees. A few sites may briefly hit 108-109 during the
afternoon hours. We will keep an eye on our Heat Advisory potential
for this afternoon. However, the SAL plume may work in our favor, as
enough drier air may mix down to keep peak heat indices in check.
Regardless of headlines, heat-related precautions should still
definitely be taken with a moderate to major heat risk for much
of the area. Peak heat indices in the 103-107 range will continue
to be the norm through most of the upcoming week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 603 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout tonight and
tomorrow, except for a brief period of possible MVFR visibilities
at IAH around sunrise. The skies are currently mostly clear with
scattered cumulus which will dissipate into the night. Low level
clouds are possible over Huntsville and College Station starting
around 9Z and lifting by 15Z. The evening will bring wind gusts up
to 20kt north of I-10. Winds are expected to die out by midnight
and remain light until morning throughout all regions. Tomorrow
afternoon winds will be around 5-15kt from the southeast.

Wingo/Bailey

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Light to moderate southerly winds will continue through the
remainder of the week. 3 to 5 foot seas today will decrease to 2
to 3 feet by mid- week. Very low rain chances today will increase
into the low and medium range Tuesday through Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 76 94 76 95 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 78 93 78 95 / 0 10 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 83 89 83 89 / 0 10 0 0

[DoctorMu]

Euro-AI, GFS way out have a FROPA and some unsettled weather mid-July. Sure. Why not? Maybe a GoM CAT 3 hurricane next GFS run? lol

[Rip76]

There are actually a few clouds out there today.

Oh well, on to July.

[Rip76]

Rain too…