Overall forecast reasoning and trends remain about the same as
previously advertised. GOES Total PW loop shows some drier air
beginning to move into the area from the Gulf. This, along with some
higher mid-upper level ridging in the area, should continue the
trend of lowering day-to-day shra/tstm chances/coverage into
midweek. Would still anticipate a few pop-up cells in association
with heating/seabreeze today, but by Wed we`ll see PW vales at or
slightly below 1.5" areawide and an even tougher environment for
storm initiation.
Give me GoM retrograde rain for the rest of the summer. It wouldn't bother the Hill Country much anyway.
Inverted mid-upper trof off the east coast of Florida will be making
eastward progress and into the Gulf late today and Wednesday.
This`ll be the region NHC will be looking to see whether a well
defined llvl circulation can emerge somewhere within the disturbed
wx. And if so...where it does so. If over the water, conditions are
somewhat favorable for some additional development for a possible
depression to form in the next several days over the ne/nctrl Gulf.
Current model consensus suggests areas more to our east may see the
more impactful risk/wx...*BUT* take all that with a grain of salt
until if/when/where things become better defined.
One thing we are fairly confident in seeing is a return of higher PW
air (2.0-2.4" values) moving in from the east late Thurs into
Saturday as the mid-upper trof moves toward the western Gulf Coast.
Pattern beyond that is not exactly clear cut. Some guidance
indicates a lingering weakness in the area into early next
week...others some mild ridging.
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
334 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, TROPICAL...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 242 PM Tue Jul 15 2025
- Lower rain chances through Thursday. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms may still occur, in particular during the
afternoon hours.
- Rain chances are expected to increase again late Thursday into
early Saturday.
- Still monitoring the tropics (northeast & north central Gulf).
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025
We might still have a chance for additional development of
isolated to possibly scattered showers and thunderstorms through
early this evening, although the GOES TPW imagery is already
showing some drier air creeping into the Matagorda Bay region
early this afternoon. For tonight, mostly tranquil conditions
expected with low temperatures in the lower 70s over the Brazos
Valley and Piney Woods region, the mid to upper 70s over areas
near and south of I-10, and the lower 80s along the coasts.
The drier air will make its way further inland on Wednesday and
stick around through Thursday, resulting in even lower chances of
rain. The high temperatures could creep up a bit on Wednesday and
may range in the mid 90s for several locations. Heat Indices are
expected to range between 101 and 106 deg F, and hopefully, the
drier air will help keep us out of a Heat Advisory for Wednesday.
Regardless, it is summertime and conditions are typically hot
enough to cause heat stress if not taking the appropriate
precautions.
Rain chances will be on the rise from late Thursday into Friday,
as a disturbance or area of low pressure with higher levels of
moisture moves in from the east or southeast (Refer to the
Tropical discussion for more details on this disturbance). Our
local PWs are expected to rise to 2.0-2.4 inches as this feature
moves across our area and could result in periods of moderate to
heavy rainfall at times. Rain chances will decrease Saturday into
Sunday as the disturbance either weakens or moves out of SE TX and
drier air moves in.
VFR expected for much of the TAF period. Iso to possibly SCT
showers and storms may be seen in and around HOU, IAH, SGR, and
CXO later this afternoon into early evening. VRB gusty winds,
brief periods of heavy rain, and frequent lightning can accompany
these storms. Showers and storms will dissipate during the late
afternoon to evening hours. For tonight, winds will gradually
relax to around 5 KTS. MVFR cigs and isolated areas of patchy fog
are possible over some portions of SE TX through Wed morning.
Tranquil conditions and mostly sunny to partly skies are expected
Wed.
Cotto
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025
Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds and seas of 2 to 3
feet will continue for the next few days. We are expecting lower
rain chances through Thursday as drier air filters across the
region. From late Thursday into Friday, rain chances are expected
to increase as a tropical disturbance moves into SE TX from the
northern Gulf region. There still remains uncertainty regarding
the development and track of this disturbance and more information
will be known once the system moves into the Gulf waters. The 2PM
EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, continued a 40% chance of formation
through the next 48 hours. Please continue to monitor the
upcoming forecasts.
Cotto
&&
.TROPICAL...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025
Based on the 2PM Tropical Weather Outlook, an area of low
pressure is currently moving east over north central portions of
FL and is expected to move into the northeastern Gulf waters on
Wednesday. Environmental conditions may be favorable for further
development as the system continues moves into the north central
portions of the Gulf and a tropical depression could form as it
approaches the coast of LA. There`s still uncertainty regarding
the strength and track of this system and more information will be
known once the system moves into the Gulf waters. Regardless of
formation, the system could bring periods of moderate to heavy
rainfall over portions of Southeast TX from late Thursday into
late Friday.
Please continue to monitor the progress of this system as well as
the latest forecasts.
I'm seeing some retrograde flow on the Euro until the 30th. Rain will be primarily east of I-45...but there is hope. The Euro has typical mid summer temps: 94-97°F here in CLL with lower 90s toward the end of the month.
NWS is being biased by GFS forecast temps in the insane region - 5-10°F higher than the Euro. And the GFS doesn't even have ridging over us - to the south and not consistently strong. CMC is a degree or two warmer than Euro and no DR over Texas.
There are significant doubts about GFS reliability, especially given the reduction in weather balloons being launched.
I'm rolling with retrograde motion and easterlies until the end of July in SETX. C'mon 7s!
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
556 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025
- Dry, but hot today as weak high pressure builds over the region.
- Increasing tropical moisture will lead to increased coverage of
showers and thunderstorms late Thursday through Friday with
locally heavy rainfall possible.
- NHC continues to monitor a disturbance that will be entering the
northern Gulf on Wednesday, giving it a 40% chance of
development into a tropical system in the next couple of days.
Regardless of development, increased rain chances are likely
late Thursday through Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025
A slight increase in mid-level ridging and drier air moving into the
region will result in the low rain chances on Wednesday through
early Thursday - practically the lowest rain chances we`ve had in
over a week. There still might be an isolated, short-lived shower
that develops thanks to daytime heating on Wednesday afternoon, but
overall we will be rain free through early Thursday. However, the
increasing heights aloft and reduced moisture will lead to afternoon
temperatures climbing into the upper 90s in spots along the I-10
corridor.
Rain chances do begin to increase from the east late Thursday with
chances increasing as we head into Friday. This increase in moisture
will be associated with the disturbance currently located in
northern Florida that the NHC is monitoring for development into a
tropical system as it tracks through the northern Gulf over the next
few days. NHC gives it a 40% chance of development into a tropical
depression or named storm within the next 2 days - more on that in
the tropical section below. Regardless of development, this
disturbance will be bringing a surge in PWATs (up to 2-2.4"), so we
can expect increased rain chances with locally heavy rainfall
possible Friday through early Saturday. WPC has placed the I-45
corridor in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall on
Friday with eastern Polk, eastern Liberty, and most of Chambers
county in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4). WPC continues the risk of
Excessive Rainfall into Saturday, but shifts the threats further
east with areas east of I-45 in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) and
the Slight Risk out of our region and more towards the TX/LA border.
Looking past this potential tropical system, expect warming
conditions Sunday into the start of the work week with temperatures
rising back into the mid 90s (and possibly into the upper 90s). With
some drier air in place, rain chances will remain on the lower-side
with PoPs maxing out near 15-20% during the afternoon hours thanks
to daytime heating.
Fowler
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 554 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025
Areas of MVFR cigs/vis in our northern zones should trend to VFR
by mid-morning. Mostly dry conditions are expected today. A
prevailing southerly wind is expected to develop this morning,
becoming more southeasterly during the afternoon. Winds generally
around 10 knots though occasional gusts over 15 knots cannot be
ruled. Winds should decrease by the evening.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025
Light onshore winds around 5-10kt (and gusts to 15kt) and seas of 2
to 3 feet will persist through the next few days. Drier air has
moved in, so expect much lower coverage of showers and thunderstorms
through early Thursday.
From late Thursday into Friday, rain chances are expected to
increase as a tropical disturbance approaches SE TX from the
northern Gulf region. There still remains uncertainty regarding the
development and track of this disturbance and more information will
be known once the system moves into the Gulf waters on Wednesday.
NHC maintains a 40% chance of formation through the next 48 hours as
the system moves through the northern Gulf. Regardless of
development, we can expect the increased rain chances late Thursday
through Friday or early Saturday. Current wave modeling does not
factor in any tropical development, so its possible that wave
height forecast may increase for Friday *IF* the system does
strengthen. Please continue to monitor the upcoming forecasts.
Fowler
&&
.TROPICAL...
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025
Not much change in this discussion that hasn`t been talked about in
the previous discussions. NHC is monitoring a disturbance, currently
located in northern Florida, for strengthening into a tropical
system giving it a 40% chance of development within the next 2 days.
Conditions are favorable for development, but there remains
uncertainty in the forecast track of this system. This system
will move westwards through the northern Gulf, but how far west it
gets before turning northwards is uncertain (for now, most
guidance has it turning northwards into Louisiana before reaching
our region, if it develops at all, but this guidance may change
once/if a center of circulation develops), and how far offshore
the center of circulation develops (a track closer to the coast
means less time over water and potentially drier air impacting
development).
Again, regardless of development into a tropical system, an increase
of moisture will lead to increased chances of showers and
thunderstorms in SE Texas late Thursday through Friday.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
219 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025
...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, TROPICAL...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1147 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025
- Low rain chances will persist through Thursday morning.
- Increasing tropical moisture will lead to increased coverage of
showers and thunderstorms late Thursday through Friday with
locally heavy rainfall possible.
- NHC continues to monitor a disturbance that will be entering the
northern Gulf later today or tonight, giving it a 40% chance of
development into a tropical system within the next 48 hours.
Regardless of development, increased rain chances are likely
late Thursday through early Saturday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1147 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025
Drier air has definitely filtered across Southeast TX and the GOES
Total Precipitation Water imagery is currently showing PWs of 1.5"
to 1.6" across much of the area and will help limit rain chances
for today through Thursday morning. There is still some wiggle
room for a quick shower to develop this afternoon, but coverage
overall will be fairly isolated. The high temperatures are
expected to be mostly in the lower 90s, but some locations could
see highs reaching the mid 90s. The heat indices will stay in the
lower 100s for much of the region.
We will see moisture starting to recover sometime mid morning or
early afternoon on Thursday as a warm moist airmass associated to
the tropical disturbance currently located over the Florida
Peninsula, begins to filter in from the east southeast. I did
notice that although the NBM shows us fairly dry during the
morning to early afternoon hours, a few vort maxes ejected
westward from the disturbance could move over us during the late
morning to late afternoon hours and may trigger some isolated
showers/storms during that period. We will have to see if moisture
and instability will be enough for rain development, however.
By the evening to early night hours, the disturbance is progged to
move westward, roughly over the LA coastal locations, and will
continue to lead to a rise in low and mid level moisture over
Southeast TX. We may start to see showers and thunderstorms
developing/moving over the areas south of I-10 and east of I-45 by
this time. We will see the shower and thunderstorm activity
expand further west and northwest during the overnight to morning
hours and is expected to further increase as we progress into
Friday afternoon. This is when models show local PWs reaching the
2.0" to 2.5" range for much of the area, which could lead to
period of moderate to heavy rainfall, in particular for areas near
and east of I-45 and near and south of I-10. Ponding of water
along roadways and poor drainage areas is possible. The rains
could also affect your commute, thus, make sure to check the radar
and local traffic before departing. PWs will decrease from late
Friday into Saturday morning, and many areas could see PWs of
1.8" to 2.0" by Saturday afternoon. Therefore, we may have lower
chances of rain on Saturday. The forecast currently is carrying
PoPs of around 15-35% PoPs for Saturday.
More details regarding the disturbance can be found in the
Tropical Discussion below.
Low rain chances are expected starting on Sunday as drier air
moves into Southeast TX and persists through the mid week
timeframe. High temperatures may increase also into the mid to
upper 90s during the second half of the week.
Cotto
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 554 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025
Areas of MVFR cigs/vis in our northern zones should trend to VFR
by mid-morning. Mostly dry conditions are expected today. A
prevailing southerly wind is expected to develop this morning,
becoming more southeasterly during the afternoon. Winds generally
around 10 knots though occasional gusts over 15 knots cannot be
ruled. Winds should decrease by the evening.
Self
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1147 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025
Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds and seas of 2 to 3
feet will continue for the next several days. Lower rain chances
will persist through Thursday morning as drier air prevails over
the region.
From late Thursday into Friday, rain chances are expected
to increase as a tropical disturbance moves westward from the
north-central Gulf waters and into the LA coastal region. There
still remains uncertainty regarding the development and track of
this disturbance. The 2PM EDT Tropical Weather Outlook continued a
40% chance of formation through the next 48 hours. More
information regarding the track and intensity will be known once
the system moves into the Gulf waters and an Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft investigates it. For this forecast package, I have
continued to bring in slightly higher seas of around 4 feet for
the offshore waters, but these heights can change within the next
upcoming forecasts.
Please continue to monitor the upcoming forecasts.
Cotto
&&
.TROPICAL...
Issued at 1147 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025
Not too many changes made to the previous tropical discussion.
Satellite continues to depict an area of low pressure currently
moving westward over the Florida Panhandle and is expected to
move into the northeastern or north-central Gulf waters later
today or tonight. Environmental conditions may be favorable for
further development as the system continues to move over the
waters and a tropical depression could form as it approaches the
coast of LA on Thursday or Friday. There`s still uncertainty
regarding the strength and track of this system, given that its
unknown how far into the waters the system will be. More
information will be known once the system moves into the Gulf
waters and an Air Force Hurricane Hunter can investigate it.
Regardless of formation, the system could bring periods of
moderate to heavy rainfall over portions of Southeast TX from late
Thursday into early Saturday. Please continue to monitor the
progress of this system as well as the latest forecasts.
- Increasing tropical moisture will lead to increased coverage of showers
and thunderstorms late Thursday through Friday with locally
heavy rainfall possible.
- NHC continues to monitor a disturbance moving through the
northern Gulf, giving it a 30% chance of development into a
tropical system within the next 2 days. Regardless of
development, increased rain chances are likely late Thursday
through Friday with some lingering activity into early Saturday.
- Hot and dry weather is expected Sunday through at least mid-week
next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1133 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025
Our brief period of drier conditions will persist through at least
the first half of Thursday, but moisture associated with a
disturbance currently moving through the northern Gulf will bring
rain chances back to the region starting Thursday night. To learn
more about the potential tropical aspect of the aforementioned
system, check out the tropical section below. Regardless of
development, we can expect an increase in shower and thunderstorm
activity. There is a chance for some isolated showers or storms as
early as Thursday afternoon thanks to daytime heating and the
gradual increase in PWATs, but coverage will not really begin in
earnest until late Thursday night into Friday as that system moves
further west. Friday will have the greatest chance of showers and
thunderstorms, potentially bringing locally heavy rainfall.
Lingering activity will be possible through early Saturday
afternoon as the disturbance turns to the north. WPC has placed
the Galveston Bay region up through eastern Polk County in a
Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) of excessive rainfall leading to
flooding on Friday, with areas generally along and of the Brazos
River in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4). Due to the lingering
activity on Saturday, WPC continues a Marginal Risk for areas
generally east of I-45.
There will likely be a sharp cutoff of rainfall totals where areas
west of the Brazos River may see zero to little rainfall, while
areas to the east of I-45 may end getting up to 1-2" with locally
higher amounts. However, this cutoff may end up happening further
east if the disturbance turns northwards earlier, or further west
if the disturbance can push a little closer to SE Texas before
turning northwards (and thus increasing rainfall totals overall).
And unfortunately there is still uncertainty on the track of this
system, but hoping there is more clarity in the forecast on
Thursday. Another thing to note that may end up limiting rainfall
potential is that we will be on the drier side of this
disturbance, experiencing mostly a north or northeasterly fetch
through the event. Continue to monitor forecast for any changes,
but at this point it looks like our main impact will be the
possibility of some locally heavy rainfall on Friday.
Looking beyond this disturbance, high pressure looks to build in
across the Southern Plains into the Midwest Sunday through at
least midweek next week bringing us hot, humid, but mostly rain-
free conditions (can`t out rule some afternoon thunderstorms).
Fowler
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 606 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025
Patchy fog has made an appearance once again with decreased
visibilities currently ongoing at CXO and SGR. There is potential
for a brief period of decreased visibilities at additional
terminals as well through 14Z before conditions return back to VFR
areawide. Winds will start out light and southwesterly this
morning then becoming southeasterly this afternoon behind the
sea breeze. Going into the evening hours, winds trend back towards
light and variable with another round of patchy fog into Friday
morning. Scattered showers will begin move in from the east on
Friday morning due to increasing tropical moisture.
Batiste
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1133 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025
Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds and low seas will
persist through early Thursday. There is a disorganized disturbance
currently located in the northern Gulf near the Florida Panhandle
that the NHC is monitoring for developing into a tropical depression
(40% chance). Regardless of development, we can expect the increased
rain chances late Thursday through Friday or early Saturday with
locally heavy rainfall possible - though Lousiana and the coastal
waters off east of High Island will have a greater chance of locally
heavy rainfall. There will also likely be a slight increase in wave
heights Friday into Saturday, to around 2-4ft, but could become
higher if that disturbance does indeed strengthen.
Low seas and light onshore winds return Sunday and persist through
at least midweek next week.
Fowler
&&
.TROPICAL...
Issued at 606 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025
THURSDAY MORNING UPDATE: NHC has lowered the chances of
development to 30% due to the disturbance remaining disorganized
and limited time before it moves inland later today. -Batiste
Not much change in the tropical outlook for Invest 93L in the
northern Gulf with NHC maintaining a 40% chance of development
over the next 2 days. Conditions are favorable for development,
but that is only if the low-level center (LLC) of the disturbance
can make it over the waters. So far, the LLC (which has been hard
to find on Satellite) has remained either over land or just
offshore. If this system cannot either get over more open ocean,
or redevelop its LLC further offshore then the likelihood it
becomes a tropical system is low. 93L will continue on its western
trek through the next few days, reaching southern Louisiana by
late Thursday, before turning north on Friday. And if it does
develop into a tropical system, its limited time over the Gulf
will likely limit strengthening.
Again, regardless of development into a tropical system, an
increase of moisture will lead to increased chances of showers
and thunderstorms in SE Texas late Thursday through early
Saturday.
- NHC continues to monitor a disturbance moving over Southeast LA,
giving it a 10% chance of development into a tropical system
within the next 2 days.
- Increasing tropical moisture associated to the disturbance will
lead to increased coverage of showers and thunderstorms late
tonight through Friday with locally heavy rainfall possible.
- Hot and dry weather is expected Sunday through at least mid-week
next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025
Based on the Total Precipitation Water imagery, we are starting
to see the western periphery of a warm moist airmass associated
to the disturbance (currently located over southeastern LA) move
closer to Southeast TX. This airmass is expected to continue to
move into our local area during the nighttime and early morning
hours with the bulk of its moisture expanding over much of
Southeast TX sometime during the mid morning hours. We will first
see showers and isolated thunderstorms move into our coastal
waters and Galveston Bay region this evening and will expand east
northeastward during the overnight to mid morning hours. By early
afternoon, the local PWs are expected to rise to 2.1" and 2.4"
for much of the area and this is when we should be seeing an
increase in shower and thunderstorm coverage. Given how much
moisture will be in place from surface to mid level, we may see
some pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall, which could lead to
ponding of water along roadways and areas of poor drainage. This
could affect your commute, thus, make sure to check the latest
weather update, the radar feed, as well as the local traffic
conditions before departing to your destination. Due to the
increase in cloud coverage and rain, our high temperatures on
Friday look to be in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
PWs will decrease Friday night into Saturday morning as drier air
pushes in from the Gulf waters and the bulk of the moisture moves
to the north northeast of the Piney Woods region. Some short
bursts of slightly higher moisture may be seen during the day on
Saturday, and could allow for isolated to scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms to develop during the day. Drier air will
move back in on Sunday, leading to lower rain chances, and this
dry trend is expected to continue into the mid-week period.
Conditions will also gradually warm up Sunday into Wednesday, with
high temperatures possibly in the mid to upper 90s for many
locations by Tuesday.
For more information regarding the tropical disturbance, please
refer to the Tropical Discussion below.
Cotto
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 606 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025
Patchy fog has made an appearance once again with decreased
visibilities currently ongoing at CXO and SGR. There is potential
for a brief period of decreased visibilities at additional
terminals as well through 14Z before conditions return back to VFR
areawide. Winds will start out light and southwesterly this
morning then becoming southeasterly this afternoon behind the
sea breeze. Going into the evening hours, winds trend back towards
light and variable with another round of patchy fog into Friday
morning. Scattered showers will begin move in from the east on
Friday morning due to increasing tropical moisture.
Batiste
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025
Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds and seas of 2 to 3
feet will persist through the next several days. Seas may increase
to around 4 feet late Friday night into Saturday.
Rain chances will be on the rise this evening into Friday as a
warm moist airmass associated to a tropical disturbance over SE
LA, moves into SE TX. There is higher confidence in that the
disturbance may not be able to develop into a Tropical Depression,
given that it is already moving inland. Thus, NHC has lowered the
chance of formation to 10% on the 2PM EDT Tropical Weather
Outlook. Although the potential is much lower than yesterday,
please continue to monitor the upcoming forecasts, in case of any
changes on this systems track and intensity forecast.
Drier and warmer conditions are expected to begin Sunday and
continue into the mid-week period.
Cotto
&&
.TROPICAL...
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025
The disturbance is currently moving inland over Southeast LA while
the bulk of the shower and thunderstorm activity remains displaced
to the west-southwest of its center. There is more certainty that
the disturbance will not be able to develop into a tropical
depression, thus, NHC has decreased the chance of formation to
10% on the 2PM EDT Tropical Weather Outlook. Although chances are
low, it is still non-zero. Please continue to monitor the latest
forecasts in case of any changes to the track and intensity of
this system.
Regardless of formation, the system could bring periods of
moderate to heavy rainfall over portions of Southeast TX from late
tonight into late Friday.
As expected, showers are reaching Huntsville. A stray one moved through here earlier this morning. Will the moisture continue to drive westward until tonight?
