Overall forecast reasoning and trends remain about the same as
previously advertised. GOES Total PW loop shows some drier air
beginning to move into the area from the Gulf. This, along with some
higher mid-upper level ridging in the area, should continue the
trend of lowering day-to-day shra/tstm chances/coverage into
midweek. Would still anticipate a few pop-up cells in association
with heating/seabreeze today, but by Wed we`ll see PW vales at or
slightly below 1.5" areawide and an even tougher environment for
storm initiation.
Give me GoM retrograde rain for the rest of the summer. It wouldn't bother the Hill Country much anyway.
Inverted mid-upper trof off the east coast of Florida will be making
eastward progress and into the Gulf late today and Wednesday.
This`ll be the region NHC will be looking to see whether a well
defined llvl circulation can emerge somewhere within the disturbed
wx. And if so...where it does so. If over the water, conditions are
somewhat favorable for some additional development for a possible
depression to form in the next several days over the ne/nctrl Gulf.
Current model consensus suggests areas more to our east may see the
more impactful risk/wx...*BUT* take all that with a grain of salt
until if/when/where things become better defined.
One thing we are fairly confident in seeing is a return of higher PW
air (2.0-2.4" values) moving in from the east late Thurs into
Saturday as the mid-upper trof moves toward the western Gulf Coast.
Pattern beyond that is not exactly clear cut. Some guidance
indicates a lingering weakness in the area into early next
week...others some mild ridging.
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
334 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, TROPICAL...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 242 PM Tue Jul 15 2025
- Lower rain chances through Thursday. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms may still occur, in particular during the
afternoon hours.
- Rain chances are expected to increase again late Thursday into
early Saturday.
- Still monitoring the tropics (northeast & north central Gulf).
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025
We might still have a chance for additional development of
isolated to possibly scattered showers and thunderstorms through
early this evening, although the GOES TPW imagery is already
showing some drier air creeping into the Matagorda Bay region
early this afternoon. For tonight, mostly tranquil conditions
expected with low temperatures in the lower 70s over the Brazos
Valley and Piney Woods region, the mid to upper 70s over areas
near and south of I-10, and the lower 80s along the coasts.
The drier air will make its way further inland on Wednesday and
stick around through Thursday, resulting in even lower chances of
rain. The high temperatures could creep up a bit on Wednesday and
may range in the mid 90s for several locations. Heat Indices are
expected to range between 101 and 106 deg F, and hopefully, the
drier air will help keep us out of a Heat Advisory for Wednesday.
Regardless, it is summertime and conditions are typically hot
enough to cause heat stress if not taking the appropriate
precautions.
Rain chances will be on the rise from late Thursday into Friday,
as a disturbance or area of low pressure with higher levels of
moisture moves in from the east or southeast (Refer to the
Tropical discussion for more details on this disturbance). Our
local PWs are expected to rise to 2.0-2.4 inches as this feature
moves across our area and could result in periods of moderate to
heavy rainfall at times. Rain chances will decrease Saturday into
Sunday as the disturbance either weakens or moves out of SE TX and
drier air moves in.
VFR expected for much of the TAF period. Iso to possibly SCT
showers and storms may be seen in and around HOU, IAH, SGR, and
CXO later this afternoon into early evening. VRB gusty winds,
brief periods of heavy rain, and frequent lightning can accompany
these storms. Showers and storms will dissipate during the late
afternoon to evening hours. For tonight, winds will gradually
relax to around 5 KTS. MVFR cigs and isolated areas of patchy fog
are possible over some portions of SE TX through Wed morning.
Tranquil conditions and mostly sunny to partly skies are expected
Wed.
Cotto
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025
Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds and seas of 2 to 3
feet will continue for the next few days. We are expecting lower
rain chances through Thursday as drier air filters across the
region. From late Thursday into Friday, rain chances are expected
to increase as a tropical disturbance moves into SE TX from the
northern Gulf region. There still remains uncertainty regarding
the development and track of this disturbance and more information
will be known once the system moves into the Gulf waters. The 2PM
EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, continued a 40% chance of formation
through the next 48 hours. Please continue to monitor the
upcoming forecasts.
Cotto
&&
.TROPICAL...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025
Based on the 2PM Tropical Weather Outlook, an area of low
pressure is currently moving east over north central portions of
FL and is expected to move into the northeastern Gulf waters on
Wednesday. Environmental conditions may be favorable for further
development as the system continues moves into the north central
portions of the Gulf and a tropical depression could form as it
approaches the coast of LA. There`s still uncertainty regarding
the strength and track of this system and more information will be
known once the system moves into the Gulf waters. Regardless of
formation, the system could bring periods of moderate to heavy
rainfall over portions of Southeast TX from late Thursday into
late Friday.
Please continue to monitor the progress of this system as well as
the latest forecasts.
I'm seeing some retrograde flow on the Euro until the 30th. Rain will be primarily east of I-45...but there is hope. The Euro has typical mid summer temps: 94-97°F here in CLL with lower 90s toward the end of the month.
NWS is being biased by GFS forecast temps in the insane region - 5-10°F higher than the Euro. And the GFS doesn't even have ridging over us - to the south and not consistently strong. CMC is a degree or two warmer than Euro and no DR over Texas.
There are significant doubts about GFS reliability, especially given the reduction in weather balloons being launched.
I'm rolling with retrograde motion and easterlies until the end of July in SETX. C'mon 7s!
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
556 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025
- Dry, but hot today as weak high pressure builds over the region.
- Increasing tropical moisture will lead to increased coverage of
showers and thunderstorms late Thursday through Friday with
locally heavy rainfall possible.
- NHC continues to monitor a disturbance that will be entering the
northern Gulf on Wednesday, giving it a 40% chance of
development into a tropical system in the next couple of days.
Regardless of development, increased rain chances are likely
late Thursday through Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025
A slight increase in mid-level ridging and drier air moving into the
region will result in the low rain chances on Wednesday through
early Thursday - practically the lowest rain chances we`ve had in
over a week. There still might be an isolated, short-lived shower
that develops thanks to daytime heating on Wednesday afternoon, but
overall we will be rain free through early Thursday. However, the
increasing heights aloft and reduced moisture will lead to afternoon
temperatures climbing into the upper 90s in spots along the I-10
corridor.
Rain chances do begin to increase from the east late Thursday with
chances increasing as we head into Friday. This increase in moisture
will be associated with the disturbance currently located in
northern Florida that the NHC is monitoring for development into a
tropical system as it tracks through the northern Gulf over the next
few days. NHC gives it a 40% chance of development into a tropical
depression or named storm within the next 2 days - more on that in
the tropical section below. Regardless of development, this
disturbance will be bringing a surge in PWATs (up to 2-2.4"), so we
can expect increased rain chances with locally heavy rainfall
possible Friday through early Saturday. WPC has placed the I-45
corridor in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall on
Friday with eastern Polk, eastern Liberty, and most of Chambers
county in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4). WPC continues the risk of
Excessive Rainfall into Saturday, but shifts the threats further
east with areas east of I-45 in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) and
the Slight Risk out of our region and more towards the TX/LA border.
Looking past this potential tropical system, expect warming
conditions Sunday into the start of the work week with temperatures
rising back into the mid 90s (and possibly into the upper 90s). With
some drier air in place, rain chances will remain on the lower-side
with PoPs maxing out near 15-20% during the afternoon hours thanks
to daytime heating.
Fowler
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 554 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025
Areas of MVFR cigs/vis in our northern zones should trend to VFR
by mid-morning. Mostly dry conditions are expected today. A
prevailing southerly wind is expected to develop this morning,
becoming more southeasterly during the afternoon. Winds generally
around 10 knots though occasional gusts over 15 knots cannot be
ruled. Winds should decrease by the evening.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025
Light onshore winds around 5-10kt (and gusts to 15kt) and seas of 2
to 3 feet will persist through the next few days. Drier air has
moved in, so expect much lower coverage of showers and thunderstorms
through early Thursday.
From late Thursday into Friday, rain chances are expected to
increase as a tropical disturbance approaches SE TX from the
northern Gulf region. There still remains uncertainty regarding the
development and track of this disturbance and more information will
be known once the system moves into the Gulf waters on Wednesday.
NHC maintains a 40% chance of formation through the next 48 hours as
the system moves through the northern Gulf. Regardless of
development, we can expect the increased rain chances late Thursday
through Friday or early Saturday. Current wave modeling does not
factor in any tropical development, so its possible that wave
height forecast may increase for Friday *IF* the system does
strengthen. Please continue to monitor the upcoming forecasts.
Fowler
&&
.TROPICAL...
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025
Not much change in this discussion that hasn`t been talked about in
the previous discussions. NHC is monitoring a disturbance, currently
located in northern Florida, for strengthening into a tropical
system giving it a 40% chance of development within the next 2 days.
Conditions are favorable for development, but there remains
uncertainty in the forecast track of this system. This system
will move westwards through the northern Gulf, but how far west it
gets before turning northwards is uncertain (for now, most
guidance has it turning northwards into Louisiana before reaching
our region, if it develops at all, but this guidance may change
once/if a center of circulation develops), and how far offshore
the center of circulation develops (a track closer to the coast
means less time over water and potentially drier air impacting
development).
Again, regardless of development into a tropical system, an increase
of moisture will lead to increased chances of showers and
thunderstorms in SE Texas late Thursday through Friday.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
219 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025
...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, TROPICAL...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1147 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025
- Low rain chances will persist through Thursday morning.
- Increasing tropical moisture will lead to increased coverage of
showers and thunderstorms late Thursday through Friday with
locally heavy rainfall possible.
- NHC continues to monitor a disturbance that will be entering the
northern Gulf later today or tonight, giving it a 40% chance of
development into a tropical system within the next 48 hours.
Regardless of development, increased rain chances are likely
late Thursday through early Saturday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1147 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025
Drier air has definitely filtered across Southeast TX and the GOES
Total Precipitation Water imagery is currently showing PWs of 1.5"
to 1.6" across much of the area and will help limit rain chances
for today through Thursday morning. There is still some wiggle
room for a quick shower to develop this afternoon, but coverage
overall will be fairly isolated. The high temperatures are
expected to be mostly in the lower 90s, but some locations could
see highs reaching the mid 90s. The heat indices will stay in the
lower 100s for much of the region.
We will see moisture starting to recover sometime mid morning or
early afternoon on Thursday as a warm moist airmass associated to
the tropical disturbance currently located over the Florida
Peninsula, begins to filter in from the east southeast. I did
notice that although the NBM shows us fairly dry during the
morning to early afternoon hours, a few vort maxes ejected
westward from the disturbance could move over us during the late
morning to late afternoon hours and may trigger some isolated
showers/storms during that period. We will have to see if moisture
and instability will be enough for rain development, however.
By the evening to early night hours, the disturbance is progged to
move westward, roughly over the LA coastal locations, and will
continue to lead to a rise in low and mid level moisture over
Southeast TX. We may start to see showers and thunderstorms
developing/moving over the areas south of I-10 and east of I-45 by
this time. We will see the shower and thunderstorm activity
expand further west and northwest during the overnight to morning
hours and is expected to further increase as we progress into
Friday afternoon. This is when models show local PWs reaching the
2.0" to 2.5" range for much of the area, which could lead to
period of moderate to heavy rainfall, in particular for areas near
and east of I-45 and near and south of I-10. Ponding of water
along roadways and poor drainage areas is possible. The rains
could also affect your commute, thus, make sure to check the radar
and local traffic before departing. PWs will decrease from late
Friday into Saturday morning, and many areas could see PWs of
1.8" to 2.0" by Saturday afternoon. Therefore, we may have lower
chances of rain on Saturday. The forecast currently is carrying
PoPs of around 15-35% PoPs for Saturday.
More details regarding the disturbance can be found in the
Tropical Discussion below.
Low rain chances are expected starting on Sunday as drier air
moves into Southeast TX and persists through the mid week
timeframe. High temperatures may increase also into the mid to
upper 90s during the second half of the week.
Cotto
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 554 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025
Areas of MVFR cigs/vis in our northern zones should trend to VFR
by mid-morning. Mostly dry conditions are expected today. A
prevailing southerly wind is expected to develop this morning,
becoming more southeasterly during the afternoon. Winds generally
around 10 knots though occasional gusts over 15 knots cannot be
ruled. Winds should decrease by the evening.
Self
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1147 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025
Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds and seas of 2 to 3
feet will continue for the next several days. Lower rain chances
will persist through Thursday morning as drier air prevails over
the region.
From late Thursday into Friday, rain chances are expected
to increase as a tropical disturbance moves westward from the
north-central Gulf waters and into the LA coastal region. There
still remains uncertainty regarding the development and track of
this disturbance. The 2PM EDT Tropical Weather Outlook continued a
40% chance of formation through the next 48 hours. More
information regarding the track and intensity will be known once
the system moves into the Gulf waters and an Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft investigates it. For this forecast package, I have
continued to bring in slightly higher seas of around 4 feet for
the offshore waters, but these heights can change within the next
upcoming forecasts.
Please continue to monitor the upcoming forecasts.
Cotto
&&
.TROPICAL...
Issued at 1147 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025
Not too many changes made to the previous tropical discussion.
Satellite continues to depict an area of low pressure currently
moving westward over the Florida Panhandle and is expected to
move into the northeastern or north-central Gulf waters later
today or tonight. Environmental conditions may be favorable for
further development as the system continues to move over the
waters and a tropical depression could form as it approaches the
coast of LA on Thursday or Friday. There`s still uncertainty
regarding the strength and track of this system, given that its
unknown how far into the waters the system will be. More
information will be known once the system moves into the Gulf
waters and an Air Force Hurricane Hunter can investigate it.
Regardless of formation, the system could bring periods of
moderate to heavy rainfall over portions of Southeast TX from late
Thursday into early Saturday. Please continue to monitor the
progress of this system as well as the latest forecasts.
