Overall forecast reasoning and trends remain about the same as
previously advertised. GOES Total PW loop shows some drier air
beginning to move into the area from the Gulf. This, along with some
higher mid-upper level ridging in the area, should continue the
trend of lowering day-to-day shra/tstm chances/coverage into
midweek. Would still anticipate a few pop-up cells in association
with heating/seabreeze today, but by Wed we`ll see PW vales at or
slightly below 1.5" areawide and an even tougher environment for
storm initiation.
Give me GoM retrograde rain for the rest of the summer. It wouldn't bother the Hill Country much anyway.
Inverted mid-upper trof off the east coast of Florida will be making
eastward progress and into the Gulf late today and Wednesday.
This`ll be the region NHC will be looking to see whether a well
defined llvl circulation can emerge somewhere within the disturbed
wx. And if so...where it does so. If over the water, conditions are
somewhat favorable for some additional development for a possible
depression to form in the next several days over the ne/nctrl Gulf.
Current model consensus suggests areas more to our east may see the
more impactful risk/wx...*BUT* take all that with a grain of salt
until if/when/where things become better defined.
One thing we are fairly confident in seeing is a return of higher PW
air (2.0-2.4" values) moving in from the east late Thurs into
Saturday as the mid-upper trof moves toward the western Gulf Coast.
Pattern beyond that is not exactly clear cut. Some guidance
indicates a lingering weakness in the area into early next
week...others some mild ridging.
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
334 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, TROPICAL...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 242 PM Tue Jul 15 2025
- Lower rain chances through Thursday. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms may still occur, in particular during the
afternoon hours.
- Rain chances are expected to increase again late Thursday into
early Saturday.
- Still monitoring the tropics (northeast & north central Gulf).
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025
We might still have a chance for additional development of
isolated to possibly scattered showers and thunderstorms through
early this evening, although the GOES TPW imagery is already
showing some drier air creeping into the Matagorda Bay region
early this afternoon. For tonight, mostly tranquil conditions
expected with low temperatures in the lower 70s over the Brazos
Valley and Piney Woods region, the mid to upper 70s over areas
near and south of I-10, and the lower 80s along the coasts.
The drier air will make its way further inland on Wednesday and
stick around through Thursday, resulting in even lower chances of
rain. The high temperatures could creep up a bit on Wednesday and
may range in the mid 90s for several locations. Heat Indices are
expected to range between 101 and 106 deg F, and hopefully, the
drier air will help keep us out of a Heat Advisory for Wednesday.
Regardless, it is summertime and conditions are typically hot
enough to cause heat stress if not taking the appropriate
precautions.
Rain chances will be on the rise from late Thursday into Friday,
as a disturbance or area of low pressure with higher levels of
moisture moves in from the east or southeast (Refer to the
Tropical discussion for more details on this disturbance). Our
local PWs are expected to rise to 2.0-2.4 inches as this feature
moves across our area and could result in periods of moderate to
heavy rainfall at times. Rain chances will decrease Saturday into
Sunday as the disturbance either weakens or moves out of SE TX and
drier air moves in.
VFR expected for much of the TAF period. Iso to possibly SCT
showers and storms may be seen in and around HOU, IAH, SGR, and
CXO later this afternoon into early evening. VRB gusty winds,
brief periods of heavy rain, and frequent lightning can accompany
these storms. Showers and storms will dissipate during the late
afternoon to evening hours. For tonight, winds will gradually
relax to around 5 KTS. MVFR cigs and isolated areas of patchy fog
are possible over some portions of SE TX through Wed morning.
Tranquil conditions and mostly sunny to partly skies are expected
Wed.
Cotto
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025
Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds and seas of 2 to 3
feet will continue for the next few days. We are expecting lower
rain chances through Thursday as drier air filters across the
region. From late Thursday into Friday, rain chances are expected
to increase as a tropical disturbance moves into SE TX from the
northern Gulf region. There still remains uncertainty regarding
the development and track of this disturbance and more information
will be known once the system moves into the Gulf waters. The 2PM
EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, continued a 40% chance of formation
through the next 48 hours. Please continue to monitor the
upcoming forecasts.
Cotto
&&
.TROPICAL...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025
Based on the 2PM Tropical Weather Outlook, an area of low
pressure is currently moving east over north central portions of
FL and is expected to move into the northeastern Gulf waters on
Wednesday. Environmental conditions may be favorable for further
development as the system continues moves into the north central
portions of the Gulf and a tropical depression could form as it
approaches the coast of LA. There`s still uncertainty regarding
the strength and track of this system and more information will be
known once the system moves into the Gulf waters. Regardless of
formation, the system could bring periods of moderate to heavy
rainfall over portions of Southeast TX from late Thursday into
late Friday.
Please continue to monitor the progress of this system as well as
the latest forecasts.
I'm seeing some retrograde flow on the Euro until the 30th. Rain will be primarily east of I-45...but there is hope. The Euro has typical mid summer temps: 94-97°F here in CLL with lower 90s toward the end of the month.
NWS is being biased by GFS forecast temps in the insane region - 5-10°F higher than the Euro. And the GFS doesn't even have ridging over us - to the south and not consistently strong. CMC is a degree or two warmer than Euro and no DR over Texas.
There are significant doubts about GFS reliability, especially given the reduction in weather balloons being launched.
I'm rolling with retrograde motion and easterlies until the end of July in SETX. C'mon 7s!
