The name Dexter is interesting. From a TV show, Dexter.
Tropical Discussion 2025
I agree, interesting name.
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
1. Northeastern Gulf:
An area of low pressure located offshore of the east coast of
Florida is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This
disturbance is forecast to move westward across Florida during the
next day or so, and into the northeastern Gulf by late Tuesday.
Environmental conditions appear favorable and some gradual
development of this system is possible while it moves westward to
west-northwestward across the northeastern and north-central
portions of the Gulf during the middle to latter part of this week.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could produce localized
flash flooding over portions of Florida and the north-central Gulf
coast through the middle to latter portion of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
Forecaster Bucci
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
1. Northeastern Gulf:
An area of low pressure located offshore of the east coast of
Florida is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This
disturbance is forecast to move westward across Florida during the
next day or so, and into the northeastern Gulf by late Tuesday.
Environmental conditions appear favorable and some gradual
development of this system is possible while it moves westward to
west-northwestward across the northeastern and north-central
portions of the Gulf during the middle to latter part of this week.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could produce localized
flash flooding over portions of Florida and the north-central Gulf
coast through the middle to latter portion of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
Forecaster Bucci
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Invest 93L
Early on the hurricane models are much further west with 93l and its energy. Still lacking organization.
I don’t mean to sound like an alarmist or overly knee-jerk reactionary, but has anyone seen the latest trend in the modeling? Google AI model ensemble members, especially.
Start getting plans at the ready
Start getting plans at the ready
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AtascocitaWX
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- Location: Atascocita,Tx
- Contact:
Everything is pointing to LA at this time that I’ve seen.
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tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6296
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- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
East of the Florida Peninsula into the Northeastern Gulf (AL93):
An area of low pressure located offshore of the east coast of
Florida continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms
primarily south of the center. This system is forecast to move
westward across the Florida Peninsula on Tuesday and Tuesday night,
eventually moving into the northeastern Gulf by the middle part of
this week. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for
additional development if the system remains offshore, and a
tropical depression could form as the system moves across the
northeastern and north-central Gulf by the middle to latter part of
this week.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could produce localized
flash flooding over portions of Florida and the north-central Gulf
coast through the middle to latter portion of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
$$
Forecaster Papin
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
East of the Florida Peninsula into the Northeastern Gulf (AL93):
An area of low pressure located offshore of the east coast of
Florida continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms
primarily south of the center. This system is forecast to move
westward across the Florida Peninsula on Tuesday and Tuesday night,
eventually moving into the northeastern Gulf by the middle part of
this week. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for
additional development if the system remains offshore, and a
tropical depression could form as the system moves across the
northeastern and north-central Gulf by the middle to latter part of
this week.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could produce localized
flash flooding over portions of Florida and the north-central Gulf
coast through the middle to latter portion of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
$$
Forecaster Papin
These have trended quite a bit west from yesterday and today
https://deepmind.google.com/science/weatherlab
https://deepmind.google.com/science/weatherlab
0z ICON has shifted a good bit w towards Houma/Morgan City and is a bit more reasonable on the strength. Slings a good bit of moisture towards the upper texas coast and east texas.
Not seeing much to get a defined center all the way towards our neck of the wood but models have shifted further west this afternoon andso far this evening.
Not seeing much to get a defined center all the way towards our neck of the wood but models have shifted further west this afternoon andso far this evening.
Looking at the 0Z ICON a little closer the energy is elongated much more than previous runs and why it's weaker. It does bring the bulk of the energy as it tries to consolidate off the central la coast w all the way into the upper texas coast. The two main hurricane models with their 18z runs suggested a similar scenario without getting that far w.