Tropical Discussion 2025

[Ptarmigan]

If named, it would be Dexter.

It’s early, but it looks like more of a problem for Louisiana as of right now.

The name Dexter is interesting. From a TV show, Dexter.

[Cpv17]

If named, it would be Dexter.

It’s early, but it looks like more of a problem for Louisiana as of right now.

The name Dexter is interesting. From a TV show, Dexter.

I agree, interesting name.

[DoctorMu]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Northeastern Gulf:
An area of low pressure located offshore of the east coast of
Florida is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This
disturbance is forecast to move westward across Florida during the
next day or so, and into the northeastern Gulf by late Tuesday.
Environmental conditions appear favorable and some gradual
development of this system is possible while it moves westward to
west-northwestward across the northeastern and north-central
portions of the Gulf during the middle to latter part of this week.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could produce localized
flash flooding over portions of Florida and the north-central Gulf
coast through the middle to latter portion of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.


Forecaster Bucci

[Rip76]

Invest 93L

[Scott747]

Early on the hurricane models are much further west with 93l and its energy. Still lacking organization.

[Pas_Bon]

I don’t mean to sound like an alarmist or overly knee-jerk reactionary, but has anyone seen the latest trend in the modeling? Google AI model ensemble members, especially.

Start getting plans at the ready

[AtascocitaWX]

I don’t mean to sound like an alarmist or overly knee-jerk reactionary, but has anyone seen the latest trend in the modeling? Google AI model ensemble members, especially.

Start getting plans at the ready

What are they showing?

[tireman4]

Orange.

[Cpv17]

Everything is pointing to LA at this time that I’ve seen.

[tireman4]

Early models

[tireman4]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

East of the Florida Peninsula into the Northeastern Gulf (AL93):
An area of low pressure located offshore of the east coast of
Florida continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms
primarily south of the center. This system is forecast to move
westward across the Florida Peninsula on Tuesday and Tuesday night,
eventually moving into the northeastern Gulf by the middle part of
this week. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for
additional development if the system remains offshore, and a
tropical depression could form as the system moves across the
northeastern and north-central Gulf by the middle to latter part of
this week.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could produce localized
flash flooding over portions of Florida and the north-central Gulf
coast through the middle to latter portion of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

[Pas_Bon]

These have trended quite a bit west from yesterday and today

https://deepmind.google.com/science/weatherlab

[Scott747]

0z ICON has shifted a good bit w towards Houma/Morgan City and is a bit more reasonable on the strength. Slings a good bit of moisture towards the upper texas coast and east texas.

Not seeing much to get a defined center all the way towards our neck of the wood but models have shifted further west this afternoon andso far this evening.

[Scott747]

Looking at the 0Z ICON a little closer the energy is elongated much more than previous runs and why it's weaker. It does bring the bulk of the energy as it tries to consolidate off the central la coast w all the way into the upper texas coast. The two main hurricane models with their 18z runs suggested a similar scenario without getting that far w.

[tireman4]

Update

[tireman4]

678
ABNT20 KNHC 151140
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

East of the Florida Peninsula into the Northeastern Gulf (AL93):
Satellite and radar data indicate that the shower and thunderstorm
activity associated with the low pressure located just offshore of
the east coast of Florida remains disorganized. This system is
forecast to move westward across the Florida Peninsula today and
then reach the northeastern Gulf by Wednesday. Environmental
conditions appear generally favorable for additional development,
and a tropical depression could form while the system moves across
the northeastern and north-central Gulf.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could produce localized
flash flooding over portions of Florida through mid-week. Heavy
rainfall could also cause flash flooding for portions of the
north-central Gulf Coast during the middle to latter portions of
this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

[tireman4]

The Eyewall
Matt Lanza
In brief: More flooding, this time in New Jersey in particular, as well as Florida. The next serious flooding event may unfold thanks to Invest 93L later this week in Louisiana.

Note: Most of the data in these posts originates from NOAA and NWS. Many of the taxpayer-funded forecasting tools described below come from NOAA-led research from research institutes that will have their funding eliminated in the current proposed 2026 budget. Access to these tools to inform and protect lives and property would not be possible without NOAA’s work and continuous research efforts.

Another round of flooding
First of all, if you think this year has been busy in terms of flooding, it has. Let's just look at the Southeast as an example, since we're going to focus a lot there today. So far, over 650 flash flood warnings have been issued in 2025 for the Southeastern U.S. If the year ended today, it would not be near last place for most flash flood warnings in a year.


Accumulated flash flood warnings by year (for the entire year) for the Southeast. (Iowa State Mesonet)
In the South-Central part of the country, it's not a whole lot different. We're well over 1,000 warnings on the year for flooding.


South-Central U.S. flash flood warnings by year. (Iowa State Mesonet)
2025 is off to a crazy start in terms of flooding around the country. (Editor's note: I wrote this last night, but Michael Lowry has a very good synopsis on the flooding warnings in context here)

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Upgrade to paid
We saw more of it yesterday, this time in the New York City metro area and down in Florida.

In northern New Jersey, rainfall totals probably came close to 7 inches in spots right near the Watchung Ridge up in western Union and northeast Somerset Counties.


Radar estimated rainfall bullseye of 6 to 7 inches right over Plainfield, NJ yesterday. (NOAA NSSL)
This type of rain has about a 2 to 3 percent chance of occurring in any given year in this location. Numerous reports of flooding were received in parts of New Jersey, as well as in New York City, as rainfall rates of around 2 inches or more per hour overwhelmed drainage systems. Heavy rain also fell west in Pennsylvania, west of Scranton-Wilkes Barre, with about 1 to 2 percent probabilities of those totals occurring in any given year. A secondary area occurred near Lancaster, PA as well.

South into Florida, much of the state saw rain yesterday, but the Plant City and Lakeland areas were especially hard hit. Rain totals of as much as 6 to 10 inches occurred just southwest of Lakeland, with flooding reported there as well.


Rain in Florida was widespread, but very isolated pockets saw extremely high totals, such as in Plant City. (NOAA NSSL)
Just another day in this seemingly frenetic summer.

Tropical Disturbance: Invest 93L
There's so much to talk about today in terms of all sorts of things, but we will focus first on the potential for a tropical system in the Gulf. Currently, Invest 93L is moving onto the Florida Peninsula. If we're really being honest, it ain't much to look at today.


Invest 93L is moving onto the Florida Peninsula this morning. (Weathernerds.org)
Once into the Gulf it will encounter both very warm sea-surface temperatures and slightly less wind shear. This will allow it to begin to get its bearings and make an effort to organize. Currently, the NHC is giving it about a 40 percent chance of development the next couple days as it moves west across the northern Gulf. Obviously, you see something in the northern Gulf, and it's instinctive to get a little worked up. This will probably have limited time over water, and the proximity to land is likely going to work against it some. There's also likely to be some drier air in play here. All this to say that it would seem that the ceiling on this system is fairly low in terms of intensity.


Tropical models are generally focused on Louisiana for the track of Invest 93L. (Tropical Tidbits)
In terms of the track, it is likely to work west across the Gulf generally toward Louisiana. A weaker, more disorganized system would probably work inland west of New Orleans. A stronger system, for whatever reason, may come ashore farther east. The next name on the storm list is Dexter.

But given the low ceiling, I think it's important to focus on the rainfall risk here.

Rainfall risk on Gulf Coast

Gulf systems this time of year typically have characteristics that make them very sloppy, very lopsided, and very wet. In other words, they're often a flooding threat. And this appears to be the case here as well.


The 7-day rainfall forecast for Louisiana and the Gulf Coast of Mississippi shows upwards of 4 to 8 inches of rain or more possible. (Pivotal Weather)
The current rain forecasts show upward of 4 to 8 inches of rain across much of Louisiana and coastal Mississippi. Heavy rain will also extend east into coastal Alabama and the Panhandle of Florida as well. In fact, there is already a moderate risk of flash flooding (3/4) for day 4 in Louisiana (Friday).


A moderate risk of flash flooding exists for Acadiana on Friday (NOAA WPC)
The focus of the flooding risk will be on Acadiana and the Atchafalaya Basin. This includes both Baton Rouge and Lafayette. It's still a bit early to focus on high-end risks of how much rain could fall, but I would keep a very close eye on the forecast between Beaumont and Baton Rouge from the flooding and heavy rain risk point of view.

On the east side of 93L, a very warm and humid air mass will lead to hot and uncomfortable weather later this week up the East Coast. Numerous record warm low temperatures are at risk of being broken.


Numerous record warm lows are at risk on Thursday morning. (NOAA WPC)
We'll have more tomorrow morning or later if anything significant changes.

[Cpv17]

The Eyewall
Matt Lanza
In brief: More flooding, this time in New Jersey in particular, as well as Florida. The next serious flooding event may unfold thanks to Invest 93L later this week in Louisiana.

Note: Most of the data in these posts originates from NOAA and NWS. Many of the taxpayer-funded forecasting tools described below come from NOAA-led research from research institutes that will have their funding eliminated in the current proposed 2026 budget. Access to these tools to inform and protect lives and property would not be possible without NOAA’s work and continuous research efforts.

Another round of flooding
First of all, if you think this year has been busy in terms of flooding, it has. Let's just look at the Southeast as an example, since we're going to focus a lot there today. So far, over 650 flash flood warnings have been issued in 2025 for the Southeastern U.S. If the year ended today, it would not be near last place for most flash flood warnings in a year.


Accumulated flash flood warnings by year (for the entire year) for the Southeast. (Iowa State Mesonet)
In the South-Central part of the country, it's not a whole lot different. We're well over 1,000 warnings on the year for flooding.


South-Central U.S. flash flood warnings by year. (Iowa State Mesonet)
2025 is off to a crazy start in terms of flooding around the country. (Editor's note: I wrote this last night, but Michael Lowry has a very good synopsis on the flooding warnings in context here)

This Substack is reader-supported. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Upgrade to paid
We saw more of it yesterday, this time in the New York City metro area and down in Florida.

In northern New Jersey, rainfall totals probably came close to 7 inches in spots right near the Watchung Ridge up in western Union and northeast Somerset Counties.


Radar estimated rainfall bullseye of 6 to 7 inches right over Plainfield, NJ yesterday. (NOAA NSSL)
This type of rain has about a 2 to 3 percent chance of occurring in any given year in this location. Numerous reports of flooding were received in parts of New Jersey, as well as in New York City, as rainfall rates of around 2 inches or more per hour overwhelmed drainage systems. Heavy rain also fell west in Pennsylvania, west of Scranton-Wilkes Barre, with about 1 to 2 percent probabilities of those totals occurring in any given year. A secondary area occurred near Lancaster, PA as well.

South into Florida, much of the state saw rain yesterday, but the Plant City and Lakeland areas were especially hard hit. Rain totals of as much as 6 to 10 inches occurred just southwest of Lakeland, with flooding reported there as well.


Rain in Florida was widespread, but very isolated pockets saw extremely high totals, such as in Plant City. (NOAA NSSL)
Just another day in this seemingly frenetic summer.

Tropical Disturbance: Invest 93L
There's so much to talk about today in terms of all sorts of things, but we will focus first on the potential for a tropical system in the Gulf. Currently, Invest 93L is moving onto the Florida Peninsula. If we're really being honest, it ain't much to look at today.


Invest 93L is moving onto the Florida Peninsula this morning. (Weathernerds.org)
Once into the Gulf it will encounter both very warm sea-surface temperatures and slightly less wind shear. This will allow it to begin to get its bearings and make an effort to organize. Currently, the NHC is giving it about a 40 percent chance of development the next couple days as it moves west across the northern Gulf. Obviously, you see something in the northern Gulf, and it's instinctive to get a little worked up. This will probably have limited time over water, and the proximity to land is likely going to work against it some. There's also likely to be some drier air in play here. All this to say that it would seem that the ceiling on this system is fairly low in terms of intensity.


Tropical models are generally focused on Louisiana for the track of Invest 93L. (Tropical Tidbits)
In terms of the track, it is likely to work west across the Gulf generally toward Louisiana. A weaker, more disorganized system would probably work inland west of New Orleans. A stronger system, for whatever reason, may come ashore farther east. The next name on the storm list is Dexter.

But given the low ceiling, I think it's important to focus on the rainfall risk here.

Rainfall risk on Gulf Coast

Gulf systems this time of year typically have characteristics that make them very sloppy, very lopsided, and very wet. In other words, they're often a flooding threat. And this appears to be the case here as well.


The 7-day rainfall forecast for Louisiana and the Gulf Coast of Mississippi shows upwards of 4 to 8 inches of rain or more possible. (Pivotal Weather)
The current rain forecasts show upward of 4 to 8 inches of rain across much of Louisiana and coastal Mississippi. Heavy rain will also extend east into coastal Alabama and the Panhandle of Florida as well. In fact, there is already a moderate risk of flash flooding (3/4) for day 4 in Louisiana (Friday).


A moderate risk of flash flooding exists for Acadiana on Friday (NOAA WPC)
The focus of the flooding risk will be on Acadiana and the Atchafalaya Basin. This includes both Baton Rouge and Lafayette. It's still a bit early to focus on high-end risks of how much rain could fall, but I would keep a very close eye on the forecast between Beaumont and Baton Rouge from the flooding and heavy rain risk point of view.

On the east side of 93L, a very warm and humid air mass will lead to hot and uncomfortable weather later this week up the East Coast. Numerous record warm low temperatures are at risk of being broken.


Numerous record warm lows are at risk on Thursday morning. (NOAA WPC)
We'll have more tomorrow morning or later if anything significant changes.

Let’s see if the west shifts continue.

[srainhoutx]

NE shear should keep development slow the next 24 to 36 hours a it drifts across Florida into the Eastern Gulf sometime tomorrow afternoon or evening. I don't expect to much in the way of strengthening unless there is a slow down S of New Orleans.

[tireman4]

656
ABNT20 KNHC 151715
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Florida Peninsula into the Northeastern Gulf (AL93):
Satellite and radar data indicate that the low pressure area
previously over the Atlantic is moving onto the coast of
northeastern Florida. This system is currently producing
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity, and little
development is expected through tonight while the center is over
land. Once the system reaches the northeastern Gulf on Wednesday,
environmental conditions appear generally favorable for additional
development, and a tropical depression could form while the system
moves across the northeastern and north-central Gulf and approaches
the coast of Louisiana on Thursday.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could produce localized
flash flooding over portions of Florida through Wednesday. Heavy
rainfall could also cause flash flooding for portions of the
north-central Gulf Coast beginning Wednesday and continuing through
Friday. For additional information, please refer to products issued
by your local National Weather Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven