Tropical Discussion 2025

[Pas_Bon]

Google AI model shows an increasing number of its ensemble members bring a system ashore on Saturday along the SE Texas coast.

[sambucol]

Thank you, Strat.

[Stratton20]

00z ICON

[Cpv17]

00z ICON

Big rainmaker bro.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 yup, its worth watching given its done a pretty good job with seeing development the last couple of seasons

[sambucol]

Cpv17 yup, its worth watching given its done a pretty good job with seeing development the last couple of seasons

Was the ICON the model that was showing Beryl last year coming into our area while most or maybe all the rest of the models showed it going no where near our area?

[Pas_Bon]

Cpv17 yup, its worth watching given its done a pretty good job with seeing development the last couple of seasons

Was the ICON the model that was showing Beryl last year coming into our area while most or maybe all the rest of the models showed it going no where near our area?

Yes

[biggerbyte]

Gulf watch is definitely on. Impact appears to be Louisiana and points east. However, at the juncture that is absolutely subject to change.

[Brazoriatx979]

Gulf watch is definitely on. Impact appears to be Louisiana and points east. However, at the juncture that is absolutely subject to change.

Yup, kinda hard to even say that when literally nothing is even there

[Stratton20]

Don’t like seeing the subtropical ridge building into the eastern gulf on models and ensembles, that would push potential “ Dexter” further west into the central and even western gulf, we need to watch this, the disturbance itself looks pretty healthy on IR , environmental conditions in the gulf do look favorable

[Cpv17]

Don’t like seeing the subtropical ridge building into the eastern gulf on models and ensembles, that would push potential “ Dexter” further west into the central and even western gulf, we need to watch this, the disturbance itself looks pretty healthy on IR , environmental conditions in the gulf do look favorable

There’s a tremendous amount of energy in the Gulf too.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 yep, one thing im noticing is that the GFS keeps initializing the disturbance too weak ( underestimating convection) take that as you will, that could matter largely when this gets into the gulf

[biggerbyte]

An East to West system is still popping up in the outlook. Now instead of points east, Texas is the bullseye. Now we know how these things go. First, we need to actually get a system in the gulf before getting too carried away. We also know that being so close to home we don't have time to guess one way or the other and be prepared just in case. This isn't like watching something in the Atlantic with plenty of breathing room. Other than that, I will not entertain an argument over the obvious.

[Cpv17]

An East to West system is still popping up in the outlook. Now instead of points east, Texas is the bullseye. Now we know how these things go. First, we need to actually get a system in the gulf before getting too carried away. We also know that being so close to home we don't have time to guess one way or the other and be prepared just in case. This isn't like watching something in the Atlantic with plenty of breathing room. Other than that, I will not entertain an argument over the obvious.

It’ll depend how far south it gets into the Gulf.

[Stratton20]

18z UKMET only goes out 66 hours but already has a developing system moving west in the gulf in 3 days or so, the UKMET is generally a model the NHC puts weight into so this is definitely something to watch when this model shows development

[Cpv17]

18z UKMET only goes out 66 hours but already has a developing system moving west in the gulf in 3 days or so, the UKMET is generally a model the NHC puts weight into so this is definitely something to watch when this model shows development

That would probably move towards NOLA if it comes off FL that far N.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 probably, but it also depends on how strong ridging is to the north, heck the 18z ICON went into SW lousiana but still made a hook left towards texas, dont think this will have a clean escape route north as the jet stream stays pretty far north

[biggerbyte]

Cpv17 probably, but it also depends on how strong ridging is to the north, heck the 18z ICON went into SW lousiana but still made a hook left towards texas, dont think this will have a clean escape route north as the jet stream stays pretty far north

It seems that way to me as well.

[Ptarmigan]

If named, it would be Dexter.

[Cpv17]

If named, it would be Dexter.

It’s early, but it looks like more of a problem for Louisiana as of right now.