March 2025

[tireman4]

621
FXUS64 KHGX 281131
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
631 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 231 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025

There has been quite the cutoff in rainfall so far for this event
with areas along and west of the Brazos River have gotten around 1-
3" with some isolated pockets of around 4" in Jackson and Wharton
counties while areas to the east have been around 0.2-0.5". This has
actually been some very welcome rainfall so far as we`ve gotten the
highest rain totals where we have the worst drought in the region
(D1 to D3), and while this won`t be enough to eliminate the drought
totally - it will help alleviate some of the dryness. There will
continue to light stratiform rain across this southwestern portion
of the region through this morning as the upper-level disturbance
continues to approach from the west. There will also be some
scattered light to moderate showers (with the occasion rumble of
thunder) across the rest of the region. There will likely be a lull
in the activity between sunrise and the mid-morning hours, but then
a combination of the upper level low finally swinging through plus
daytime heating will lead to a redevelopment of scattered showers
and thunderstorms. Unlike yesterday, the storms today will not be as
stratiform but more of our typical hit-or-miss activity (but where
it hits, rain intensity could be 1-2" per hour). The showers and
storms will progress from west to east (across most of the region,
not just within the Flood Watch area) in the afternoon and evening
with rainfall finally ending between sunset and midnight with the
activity to the east. WPC maintains the Slight Risk (level 2 of 4)
for most of the southeastern portion of the region for Excessive
Rainfall due to the moderate to heavy rainfall potential this
afternoon/evening. SPC also maintains the Marginal Risk (level 1 of
5) for strong to severe storms to develop this afternoon.

Regarding the Flood Watch, I have kept the current configuration of
Jackson, Wharton, Colorado, Fort Bend, Matagorda, and Brazoria
counties through 7pm tonight as is - however, this is a very
borderline Watch at this time. While we have seen some Flood
Advisory-type activity last evening, the rainfall so far has been
very manageable. And the additional rainfall expected this afternoon
and evening will more than likely fall outside of the Watch area to
the north and east. So, while the flash flood threat is non-zero, it
is certainly not high. I am keeping the Watch as is for the slight
chance that a training storm is able to develop later this morning
into the early afternoon ahead of the trough axis swinging through -
but if guidance continues to trend downward for additional heavy
rainfall within the Watch area then I`d expect the Watch to be
cancelled in future updates.

Mostly cloudy skies and scattered precipitation today will keep high
temperatures near seasonal - in the low to mid 70s across the area.
Overnight lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 60s. Saturday is
looking to warm up as slight upper-level ridging builds in following
the exiting trough combined with continued southerly flow at the
surface. High temperatures on Saturday will be in the low to mid 80s
with overnight lows expected in the upper 60s.

Fowler

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 414 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025

Southeast Texas will still find itself under the influence of strong
ML troughing with diffulence in the upper levels. Increasing PWs
will pool northward ahead of an approaching cold front. Maximum
large scale ascent should remain north of our area. However, we
think conditions will still be favorable enough for at least
isolated to widely scattered shower and thunderstorm activity
across our northern counties on Sunday. A few thunderstorms could
become strong to severe, producing damaging wind gusts and hail.
Given model guidance`s recent struggle of over estimating capping
and stability, we should not rule out showers and thunderstorms
occurring farther south. But for now, our highest PoPs are north
of the Houston Metro. Expect very humid and warm conditions on
Sunday, with highs averaging in the low/mid 80s. The
aforementioned front pushes through Monday morning, perhaps
sparking off a stray shower across our southern counties. Humidity
will drop behind the front, especially across our northern zones.
Monday`s afternoon highs are expected to range from mid/upper 70s
in our northern counties to low/mid 80s farther south. Monday
night will be a little on the cool side, with temps ranging from
mid/upper 50s in our northern counties to low 60s farther south.

The mid/upper synoptic pattern will gradually trend towards SE CONUS
ridging while a trough digs over W CONUS. Meanwhile in the lower
levels, increasing onshore flow will push Gulf moisture northward.
The veering vertical wind profile signals a WAA regime, which is why
the forecast features rising temperatures, coupled with rising
humidity during the Tuesday-Thursday time frame. By Wednesday and
Thursday, afternoon inland highs could be pushing 90 degrees with
dew points in the low 70s. At least in my book, that`s a little more
summery than spring-like.

There exists large guidance variance towards the end of the forecast
period. It is possible we could find ourselves in an active /
stormier pattern during the later half of next week. We do have some
modest PoPs Wednesday-Thursday in our northern and zones. But this
forecast could easily change given model variance and the fact that
we are talking about a forecast nearly a week in advance. But
confidence is relatively high that it will at least get warmer and
more humid.

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 606 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025

Some low/mid-level dry air is filtering into the region leading
to VFR conditions with OVC skies at around 10000ft. Moisture is
expected to return by the mid-morning with MVFR conditions
returning with CIGs around 2500-3000ft that will continue through
the remainder of the day (with some periods of VFR conditions due
to clouds scattering out at times). Scattered light showers are
occuring right now and expected to continue through this
afternoon/evening. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible
this afternoon producing locally higher winds and reduced
visibility, but exact location of where these TS pop up is
uncertain. So, have opted in the TAFs to do mainly VCSH through
the day with a PROB30 of TSRA during the afternoon. Rain chances
will end from west to east with most areas seeing the end of the
activity between 22z through 1z, but chances could linger at GLS
through around 6z tonight. Following the exit of the rain chances,
MVFR to IFR conditions are expected to develop tonight with CIGs
down to 700-1500ft.

Fowler

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 231 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025

Strong clusters and lines of thunderstorms are pushing off the
South Texas Coast this morning, while light to moderate showers
and widely scattered thunderstorms are occurring farther north in
our region. Despite passing well to the south, the aforementioned
stronger thunderstorms will produce strong gusty winds far from
the thunderstorms. General winds this morning are expected to from
the southeast between 15 and 25 knots. But occasionally much
stronger winds with gusts over 40 knots (potentially over 45
knots) are a concern as these thunderstorms push into the Gulf
well to the south of our waters. Therefore, we opted to extend the
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM. But be advised, that brief
periods of gales will occur in some locations. Building swell will
likely continue to today, with locally much higher seas in
locations experiencing thunderstorm winds. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to impact the Upper Texas Coast and NW
Gulf through Saturday morning.

Mostly onshore flow is expected through the end of next week. One
exception may be Monday, when a weak front may result in a brief
period of offshore flow. Onshore flow and swell is expected to
gradually increase during the second half of the week. There is
some uncertainty regarding how much winds and swell increase.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 73 64 83 67 / 90 40 10 0
Houston (IAH) 75 66 84 69 / 90 60 20 0
Galveston (GLS) 75 67 77 69 / 90 70 40 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ210-226-227-235>237-
335>337-436-437.

High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ330-
335-350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fowler
LONG TERM....Self
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Self

[tireman4]

So this was it for the big rain event? I got like a light mist for maybe 10 15 seconds lol

There will likely be a lull in the activity between sunrise and the mid-morning hours, but then
a combination of the upper level low finally swinging through plus
daytime heating will lead to a redevelopment of scattered showers
and thunderstorms. Unlike yesterday, the storms today will not be as
stratiform but more of our typical hit-or-miss activity (but where
it hits, rain intensity could be 1-2" per hour). The showers and
storms will progress from west to east (across most of the region,
not just within the Flood Watch area) in the afternoon and evening
with rainfall finally ending between sunset and midnight with the
activity to the east. WPC maintains the Slight Risk (level 2 of 4)
for most of the southeastern portion of the region for Excessive
Rainfall due to the moderate to heavy rainfall potential this
afternoon/evening. SPC also maintains the Marginal Risk (level 1 of
5) for strong to severe storms to develop this afternoon.

[Pas_Bon]

So this was it for the big rain event? I got like a light mist for maybe 10 15 seconds lol

Sun is shining and warm in League City and much of south metro areas. That should add a lot of fuel to the system to pop off thunderstorms as the day crawls along.

[Stratton20]

Per the models, the pattern looks to stay pretty active well into april, very good news as we head closer to summer, which also i dont think is going to be that bad with the PDO weakening some

[Pas_Bon]

Per the models, the pattern looks to stay pretty active well into april, very good news as we head closer to summer, which also i dont think is going to be that bad with the PDO weakening some

You just jinxed it.

[Pas_Bon]

I have a very strong feeling that this (albeit sporadic) sunshine we are seeing will lead to the radar going a little cray cray here in the HOU metro area within the next 2 hours. Stay tuned.

Some areas could see thunderstorms and localized downpours, especially those areas south of I-10.

[jasons2k]

That escalated quickly…

Mesoscale Discussion 0273
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1046 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025

Areas affected...Parts of east TX and western LA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Mesoscale Discussion 0274
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1207 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025

Areas affected...Parts of east TX/western LA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 66
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025

TORNADO WATCH 66 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

[jasons2k]

IMO the Houston Metro counties should be included in this watch.

[tireman4]

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025

Generally VFR conditions across SE Texas currently GLS at MVFR
with CIGs. MVFR expected to develop across the area this evening,
becoming MVFR/IFR overnight with incoming stratus deck. Scattered
light to moderate showers will continue this afternoon. While not
in the TAFs, TS will be possible; however, confidence is low on
which terminals could experience TS. Rain chances end from west to
east this evening. Winds will generally be light with a southerly
component, varying from Southeast to Southwest through the period.

[Cpv17]

Folks, there’s a big rain signal around the 5th or 6th of April. It could be the real deal.

[jasons2k]

Added another 0.26" today. Storm total was less than half the WPC forecast, again.

[Pas_Bon]

Folks, there’s a big rain signal around the 5th or 6th of April. It could be the real deal.

It’s looking pretty solid. Fingers crossed.
If we end up in another drought, I’m suing.

[tireman4]

Rain slowly moves out of the region setting us up for a partly cloudy day

[Dls2010r]

Jack pot in Santa Fe. Pretty sure at least 4 inches.

[Pas_Bon]

We got a surprise dumping this morning in League City.

I’d say 1.5” in about 45 mins. I don’t have to water the plants or fruit trees for at least a few days. Plants are happy, dad is happy. Dogs were not happy. Lol.

[Cpv17]

We ended up with 2.25” altogether. Very nice!

[tireman4]

Update from HGX...temperatures might flirt with 90 next with chances of rain. Severe weather has been moved slightly north.

[jasons2k]

This is the type of setup that gives us a “surprise” convective complex that sweeps through….
Don’t be surprised later…

[tireman4]

Today...

[Stratton20]

Models backing off on rain chances around the 5th, cut off low gets too sheared out, been the trend towards that the last several days