March 2025

[Ptarmigan]

Really good chances coming later this week! I was surprised about this mornings rain. Didn’t see that one coming at all.

Someone in SC and SE Texas may get a lot of rain this week. Looks kind of like a warm core low setup, and there could be a core rain event. Areas west of I-45 look’s to be where the heaviest rains may setup.Stay tuned!

If core rain happens, rainfall totals could approach a foot or more.

[Cpv17]

The 18z Euro and 18z GFS both look juicy!

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Lost power twice last night and had hail. Veggie garden is happy! I think the cows are too!

[Cpv17]

Lost power twice last night and had hail. Veggie garden is happy! I think the cows are too!

We only had about .15” here. Still surprised I got anything though.

[tireman4]

Outlook

[tireman4]

Update

[tireman4]

650
FXUS64 KHGX 251136
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
636 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025

Weak surface high pressure to our east and building upper level
heights to our west will lead to a warm and dry couple of days ahead
(though things turn wetter in the Long Term, so read below for
that). Afternoon high temperatures today will be in the upper 80s to
low 90s for most of the area today, while the coast will be a few
degrees cooler and staying in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Overnight
lows tonight will be in the low to mid 60s for the region with
patchy fog possible developing by late tonight before dissipating
after sunrise on Wednesday. An upper-level low will be moving across
Baja California with some shortwave troughs moving across Mexico and
West Texas during the day on Wednesday. This will be too far to the
west to bring us any precipitation during the day on Wednesday, it
combined with moist onshore flow will lead to increased cloud cover.
This cloud cover will help keep high temperatures a bit lower on
Wednesday with most of the region staying in the low to mid 80s (and
again cooler at the coast by about 5-10 degrees). Overnight lows
Wednesday night will be similar to tonight, but could start to see
some isolated showers west of the Brazos by late Wednesday
night/near daybreak Thursday as that upper-level disturbance begins
to move closer to the Texas coast.

Fowler

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025

he broader picture of the long term forecast hasn`t changed much.
Substantial rainfall is still expected late in the workweek,
courtesy of a mid/upper level shortwave. This system should dig
through Desert Southwest/Northern Mexico on Thursday, bringing
widespread rainfall into the early weekend as it fills northeast
through the Southern Plains. PWs are still anticipated to range from
around 1.4-1.6 inches with a 25 to 40 knot LLJ jet moving into the
area Thursday evening. Forecast soundings still show profiles
suggesting high precipitation efficiency, with tight IQR spreads and
deep saturation still depicted in LREF soundings.

Rainfall totals over this two day period have trended upward, now
ranging from 1.5-3.5 inches. With CREST soil moisture under 20%
area-wide, these amounts can be manageable when spread out over
the two day period. However, higher amounts from locally heavy
rains remain possible with confidence in the heavy rainfall threat
growing. WPC now has a Slight (level 2/4) Risk of Excessive
Rainfall on Thursday and Friday. Any stronger storms with higher
rainfall rates could result in ponding on roadways and street
flooding, especially in urban and low-lying areas.

Relatively quiet weather sets in on Saturday as the aforementioned
disturbance pushes off to the northeast. Expect a short warm up over
the better half of the weekend as highs climb back into the 80s.
Another midlevel shortwave trough should move across the Plains on
Sunday, draping another cold front through SE Texas late Sunday
night into next week. Currently this next front is looking weaker in
nature, with scattered to isolated rain chances along the line as it
moves through the area. Given the weaker nature of this front,
temperatures only take a slight dip on Monday with highs falling
into the 70s/lower 80s. Lows are progged in the upper 50s/lower 60s.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 631 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025

IFR to LIFR conditions are being experienced along and south of
I-10 this morning with CIGs between 200-600ft and patchy, dense
fog. Low CIGs may make it to IAH over the next few hours, but if
they do it will be very short lived as sunrise scatters out the
CIGs. VFR conditions are expected to return area-wide by 14z with
possibly some patchy fog lingering at GLS into this afternoon.
Light/variable winds will becoming light southeasterly winds this
afternoon before becoming light/variable again tonight. Increasing
moisture tonight will mean the return of low CIGs and patchy fog
by 6-8z that will continue through daybreak Wednesday. Overcast
skies around 3500ft will persist through Wednesday afternoon with
increasing southeasterly winds in the afternoon.

Fowler

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 319 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025

Light to moderate onshore winds, east to southeasterly, are
expected through midweek. Non-zero risk of some patchy sea fog
forming during the overnight and early morning hours during this
time frame (especially near Matagorda bay), though water
temperatures in the upper 60s and lower 70s will make it difficult
for large patches/dense banks to form. Short range models seem to be
too aggressive with sea fog formation, with only sporadic low clouds
and visibility reductions being observed. The next large storm system
will move into Texas on Thursday, bringing higher winds, seas and
widespread rainfall through the end of the work week. Caution flags
are likely to be needed by Thursday afternoon with Small Craft
Advisories possible overnight through Friday due to 20 knot winds
and swells of 6-8 feet offshore. Conditions improve through the
better half of the weekend ahead of another weak cold front early
next week.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 89 61 84 62 / 0 0 0 10
Houston (IAH) 89 64 85 64 / 0 0 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 76 65 75 66 / 0 0 0 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for GMZ335-355.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fowler
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...03

[Cpv17]

Update

We’ll get another update in 3 more hours from the WPC. They do it at 12am and 12pm, I believe.

[DoctorMu]

On target at 12z

[Cpv17]

On target at 12z

Someone is really gonna get dumped on lol

[TexasBreeze]

Already a flood watch issued for the Corpus Christi area for this event!

[sambucol]

Already a flood watch issued for the Corpus Christi area for this event!

Is the Houston area and or SE Texas under a flood watch as of today?

[Pas_Bon]

Already a flood watch issued for the Corpus Christi area for this event!

Is the Houston area and or SE Texas under a flood watch as of today?

Not as of yet. I’m in Galveston County/League City

[don]

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 327 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025

As mentioned above, we should see rain and embedded tstms moving
into SE Tx from the west Thursday morning...expanding across the
remainder of the area as the day progresses. Considering the dry
ground...this will initially be welcome rainfall. However (there
always seems to be a "however"), this will just prime the ground
for a potential heavy rain event setting up across parts of the
region.

As we head into the evening hours Thursday, and continuing into
the overnight hours Thursday night and on Friday, we expect
either a surface low or some sort of low level convergence zone
(sfc-850mb) to develop across, or near, the region as the main
upper level trof approaches. Combined with plentiful Gulf moisture
and an increasingly diffluent upper level pattern, this will set
the stage for some heavy rainfall with some convective, training
cells appearing likely.

What is somewhat uncertain at the moment is exactly where this
convergent axis sets up (which should be the focus as to where
the more significant rains occur). Currently, deterministic
guidance is pointing to areas south of I-10...and more
specifically the coastal counties especially toward Matagorda
Bay. UKMET, ICON, CMC, GFS & ECMWF generally showing some 4-8+
totals there and an inch or less north of the Conroe area. That
said, and this is important...don`t focus on those specific areas
just yet. It is springtime, and the usual model uncertainties and
mesoscale factors could easily come into play - shifting that axis
further north and impacting more of the metro area - or
conversely, setting up just offshore and limiting rain totals
further inland.

Regardless of the current soil moisture/ground dryness, totals
like those could cause some flash flood/flood issues...especially
where it falls in a short time period. At this point, the
messaging is to keep aware of the forecast - especially Thursday
evening and Friday. We`ll see how these favored spots trend with
future model runs and fine tune things with time and as we get
into some the higher resolution model timeframes.

[tireman4]

Outlook this week

[Ptarmigan]

Outlook this week

Some areas could see over a foot of rain.

[Pas_Bon]

My grass, oak trees, plants, and fruit trees will be ecstatic, that’s for sure

Also, literally the only time my Texas Mountain Sage blooms is after it rains. Looking forward to seeing them shine for a few days.

I’m in League City.

[Ptarmigan]

March has seen heavy rain and flooding. March 20, 1972 had 7.47 inches of rain, while March 25, 1922 had 7.36 inches of rain.
https://threadex.rcc-acis.org/

There have been flooding in March in the Houston area. 1922, 1972, 1992, 1997, 1999, and 2012 come to mind.
https://www.weather.gov/hgx/severe_events_march

[jasons2k]

90 here today. Already…

[Pas_Bon]

My grass, oak trees, plants, and fruit trees will be ecstatic, that’s for sure

Also, literally the only time my Texas Mountain Sage blooms is after it rains. Looking forward to seeing them shine for a few days.

I’m in League City.

Just as quickly as I posted this, my weather apps have lopped off a good 1” of total rain for my Thurs/Fri forecasts.