I know, and I think that’s lame af lolStratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 20, 2025 7:11 pm Cpv17 im only interested in tropical systems/ winter weather, severe weather doesnt do it for me lol
March 2025
I'm excited for the severe weather season as this will be my first season in the heart of Tornado Alley. Though i did live a few years in the heart of Dixie Alley (Southern Mississippi) and experienced a tornado event.
As a weather nerd I'm loving the dynamic windstorms we've been getting up here. It's been like getting a strong tropical storm or cat 1 hurricane every few days for the last couple of weeks.
As a weather nerd I'm loving the dynamic windstorms we've been getting up here. It's been like getting a strong tropical storm or cat 1 hurricane every few days for the last couple of weeks.
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biggerbyte
- Posts: 1396
- Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:15 am
- Location: Porter, Texas. (Montgomery County)
- Contact:
My onlies..
A snowy winter and a beautiful spring.. Summer around here is just HOT and sometimes tropical. We don't really get fall colors like I'd like, so...
A snowy winter and a beautiful spring.. Summer around here is just HOT and sometimes tropical. We don't really get fall colors like I'd like, so...
It got down to 43° in League City overnight. Wow.
Woke-up to 37 degrees with frost on the rooftops.
Yet another temp bust >5 degrees.
Yet another temp bust >5 degrees.
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tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6016
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
592
FXUS64 KHGX 211110
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
610 AM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025
High pressure will move off to the east today, resulting in
onshore winds that will trigger the start of a much needed
increase in moisture throughout Southeast Texas. These winds will
be light to moderate along the coast, so when it comes to fuels
for fire weather, it will take some time for fuel moisture to
respond to the uptick in moisture from the Gulf.
I have opted to forgo a Red Flag Warning for this time, but do
want to encourage you to exercise caution when working with open
flame or if you plan to do any outdoor burning. Winds are expected
to be light out of the S/SE and RH values will bottom out in the
mid to upper 20s; however, fuels are dry to critically dry and we
will be located near a 925mb LLJ to our west, which may result in
gusts to around 20 kts at the surface during the afternoon hours
with daytime heating. So, while conditions are generally better
than what we have experienced in the last couple of days, there is
certainly still room for improvement before burning poses less of
a threat.
Today will begin a warming trend with the return of onshore flow
and WAA. Highs will be in the 70s for inland areas and in the
upper 60s to around 70 along the coast. Tonight, lows will drop
into the 50s inland and in the low 60s along the coast.
The warming trend will continue Saturday with a noticeable uptick
in temperatures as most of the area tops out into the low to mid
80s. The coast will hang around the 70s. Clouds will increase
during evening into overnight hours Saturday into Sunday ahead of
the next disturbance (more on that in the long term). Lows will be
in the 60s area wide.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025
Sunday is still progged to see a day of active weather as a
mid/upper level trough digs into the Plains/Mississippi River
Valley. A 25-35 knot 850mb jet develops early in the day with these
southwesterly winds likely to aid WAA during the daytime. The
tightened pressure gradient with this system should also enhance
moisture advection, especially at the surface as dewpoints rise into
the 60s with PWs climbing above 1 inch. As the broader trough/low
aloft tracks eastward towards the Great Lakes, it will push a cold
front into SE Texas Sunday evening. Showers and storms are expected
to develop along and ahead of the front, some of which could become
strong to possibly severe.
LREF mean SFC CAPE peaks in the afternoon at around 1300-2000 J/KG.
MU CAPE progged at 1500-2600 J/KG with midlevel lapse rates at 7.5-
8.5 degC/km. LREF SFC CIN ranges from -100 to -25 or less in spots
through the afternoon/evening, though a rather robust cap at 850-
800mb can be seen at this time frame in the latest NAM run
(corresponding to that drier 850mb southwesterly flow previously
mentioned), eroding later in the evening/overnight with the front.
With these forecast soundings, we still can see dry mid-levels and
high LCL heights in advance of the front. 25-40 knots of Bulk shear
will be in place across the area. SRH remains generally 150m2/2s in
the lowest 3km, though cloud layer shear will still be upwards of 50-
65 knots. Still, simulated reflectivity from the NAM seem to be
rather pessimistic on the development of storms with this FROPA
compared to the global models.
With this in mind, SPC now has pulled the slight risk out of our
area, with portions of the Piney Woods area now under a Marginal
(level 1/5 risk) for severe weather on Sunday. With respect to
timing, severe storms will be most likely occur during the afternoon
through the evening on Sunday, with the severe threat becoming more
isolated overnight into Monday as the front moves towards the coast.
With respect to the specific hazards, damaging wind gusts and large
hail remain the main severe weather hazards, with low chances of an
isolated tornado. It`s entirely possible that capping and dry air
aloft could prove too much for these storms to organize (as
currently hinted at by the NAM), though we`ll have a better picture
of how things may unfold as High-res CAMs get in range.
The cold front will stall and fizzle out over around the Gulf/coast
(still some uncertainty with regards to positioning) on Monday.
Surface high pressure quickly slides east across the Southern
Plains, veering winds to the east/southeast by that evening.
Low PWs and weak ridging over the state should keep benign
conditions in place through mid week with slim rain chances. Highs
dip down a few degrees on Monday, but should bounce back into the
mid 70s/mid 80s by Tuesday. More substantial rain chances return on
Thursday as a mid/upper level trough digs into Texas.
03
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 606 AM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025
VFR conditions across the board. Generally light and variable
winds this morning, becoming southeasterly by mid-morning. Winds
will increase to 10-15 kts this afternoon with gusts of 20-25 kts
at times. Winds will relax around sunset. Expect high clouds to
move in after sunset into the overnight hours at southern
terminals and IAH.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 318 AM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025
Negative tide levels have been observed in the bays early today and
should continue over the next several low tide cycles. Light
northeast winds this morning should veer southeasterly and
strengthen later this morning. Light to moderate onshore flow then
continues into Sunday with seas rising to 3-5 feet. Isolated showers
and storms will be possible around Galveston Bay Sunday afternoon
with rain chances increasing and spreading to all waters by early
Monday morning as a cold front pushes towards the coast.
East/northeast winds brought by the front shift back to the
southeast by Tuesday.
03
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 318 AM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025
Elevated fire weather concerns will continue today tomorrow,
though these conditions are more isolated/scattered spots as
opposed to the last couple of days. Winds have become more
onshore this morning, and while this is a good sign for moisture
return, only the coast will see the immediate benefit. Due to
lighter winds today it will take a little more time for the humid
air to funnel inland. Widespread RH values in the mid to upper 20s
and low 30s are expected this afternoon. Due to the increase in
humidity, conditions across Southeast Texas are not anticipated to
be as critically dry as seen the last couple of days. In addition
to this, winds will be less strong with less frequent gusts.
Therefore, a Red Flag Warning will not be issued at this time. I
do want to echo the previous forecaster and say these conditions exist
on a spectrum, and we can still have active fire behavior and
fire growth on a non-Red Flag day! It is not a switch between
"extreme" and "all good, hunky dory!" It is more of a step from
"extreme" to "not quite extreme, but still kinda close".
Onshore flow will gradually improve the humidity situation
Saturday, and particularly Sunday. The downside is that is as good
as the situation will get, as we`ll get another surge of dry air
behind a Sunday night front. How much rain we manage to generate
along this front will likely be an important consideration for how
serious fire weather concerns will be next week. Stay tuned, and
continue to be cautious with flame and any equipment that cause
fires or throw sparks!
Adams/Luchs
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 76 52 84 63 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 74 54 82 65 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 71 63 74 66 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...03
FXUS64 KHGX 211110
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
610 AM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025
High pressure will move off to the east today, resulting in
onshore winds that will trigger the start of a much needed
increase in moisture throughout Southeast Texas. These winds will
be light to moderate along the coast, so when it comes to fuels
for fire weather, it will take some time for fuel moisture to
respond to the uptick in moisture from the Gulf.
I have opted to forgo a Red Flag Warning for this time, but do
want to encourage you to exercise caution when working with open
flame or if you plan to do any outdoor burning. Winds are expected
to be light out of the S/SE and RH values will bottom out in the
mid to upper 20s; however, fuels are dry to critically dry and we
will be located near a 925mb LLJ to our west, which may result in
gusts to around 20 kts at the surface during the afternoon hours
with daytime heating. So, while conditions are generally better
than what we have experienced in the last couple of days, there is
certainly still room for improvement before burning poses less of
a threat.
Today will begin a warming trend with the return of onshore flow
and WAA. Highs will be in the 70s for inland areas and in the
upper 60s to around 70 along the coast. Tonight, lows will drop
into the 50s inland and in the low 60s along the coast.
The warming trend will continue Saturday with a noticeable uptick
in temperatures as most of the area tops out into the low to mid
80s. The coast will hang around the 70s. Clouds will increase
during evening into overnight hours Saturday into Sunday ahead of
the next disturbance (more on that in the long term). Lows will be
in the 60s area wide.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025
Sunday is still progged to see a day of active weather as a
mid/upper level trough digs into the Plains/Mississippi River
Valley. A 25-35 knot 850mb jet develops early in the day with these
southwesterly winds likely to aid WAA during the daytime. The
tightened pressure gradient with this system should also enhance
moisture advection, especially at the surface as dewpoints rise into
the 60s with PWs climbing above 1 inch. As the broader trough/low
aloft tracks eastward towards the Great Lakes, it will push a cold
front into SE Texas Sunday evening. Showers and storms are expected
to develop along and ahead of the front, some of which could become
strong to possibly severe.
LREF mean SFC CAPE peaks in the afternoon at around 1300-2000 J/KG.
MU CAPE progged at 1500-2600 J/KG with midlevel lapse rates at 7.5-
8.5 degC/km. LREF SFC CIN ranges from -100 to -25 or less in spots
through the afternoon/evening, though a rather robust cap at 850-
800mb can be seen at this time frame in the latest NAM run
(corresponding to that drier 850mb southwesterly flow previously
mentioned), eroding later in the evening/overnight with the front.
With these forecast soundings, we still can see dry mid-levels and
high LCL heights in advance of the front. 25-40 knots of Bulk shear
will be in place across the area. SRH remains generally 150m2/2s in
the lowest 3km, though cloud layer shear will still be upwards of 50-
65 knots. Still, simulated reflectivity from the NAM seem to be
rather pessimistic on the development of storms with this FROPA
compared to the global models.
With this in mind, SPC now has pulled the slight risk out of our
area, with portions of the Piney Woods area now under a Marginal
(level 1/5 risk) for severe weather on Sunday. With respect to
timing, severe storms will be most likely occur during the afternoon
through the evening on Sunday, with the severe threat becoming more
isolated overnight into Monday as the front moves towards the coast.
With respect to the specific hazards, damaging wind gusts and large
hail remain the main severe weather hazards, with low chances of an
isolated tornado. It`s entirely possible that capping and dry air
aloft could prove too much for these storms to organize (as
currently hinted at by the NAM), though we`ll have a better picture
of how things may unfold as High-res CAMs get in range.
The cold front will stall and fizzle out over around the Gulf/coast
(still some uncertainty with regards to positioning) on Monday.
Surface high pressure quickly slides east across the Southern
Plains, veering winds to the east/southeast by that evening.
Low PWs and weak ridging over the state should keep benign
conditions in place through mid week with slim rain chances. Highs
dip down a few degrees on Monday, but should bounce back into the
mid 70s/mid 80s by Tuesday. More substantial rain chances return on
Thursday as a mid/upper level trough digs into Texas.
03
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 606 AM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025
VFR conditions across the board. Generally light and variable
winds this morning, becoming southeasterly by mid-morning. Winds
will increase to 10-15 kts this afternoon with gusts of 20-25 kts
at times. Winds will relax around sunset. Expect high clouds to
move in after sunset into the overnight hours at southern
terminals and IAH.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 318 AM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025
Negative tide levels have been observed in the bays early today and
should continue over the next several low tide cycles. Light
northeast winds this morning should veer southeasterly and
strengthen later this morning. Light to moderate onshore flow then
continues into Sunday with seas rising to 3-5 feet. Isolated showers
and storms will be possible around Galveston Bay Sunday afternoon
with rain chances increasing and spreading to all waters by early
Monday morning as a cold front pushes towards the coast.
East/northeast winds brought by the front shift back to the
southeast by Tuesday.
03
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 318 AM CDT Fri Mar 21 2025
Elevated fire weather concerns will continue today tomorrow,
though these conditions are more isolated/scattered spots as
opposed to the last couple of days. Winds have become more
onshore this morning, and while this is a good sign for moisture
return, only the coast will see the immediate benefit. Due to
lighter winds today it will take a little more time for the humid
air to funnel inland. Widespread RH values in the mid to upper 20s
and low 30s are expected this afternoon. Due to the increase in
humidity, conditions across Southeast Texas are not anticipated to
be as critically dry as seen the last couple of days. In addition
to this, winds will be less strong with less frequent gusts.
Therefore, a Red Flag Warning will not be issued at this time. I
do want to echo the previous forecaster and say these conditions exist
on a spectrum, and we can still have active fire behavior and
fire growth on a non-Red Flag day! It is not a switch between
"extreme" and "all good, hunky dory!" It is more of a step from
"extreme" to "not quite extreme, but still kinda close".
Onshore flow will gradually improve the humidity situation
Saturday, and particularly Sunday. The downside is that is as good
as the situation will get, as we`ll get another surge of dry air
behind a Sunday night front. How much rain we manage to generate
along this front will likely be an important consideration for how
serious fire weather concerns will be next week. Stay tuned, and
continue to be cautious with flame and any equipment that cause
fires or throw sparks!
Adams/Luchs
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 76 52 84 63 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 74 54 82 65 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 71 63 74 66 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...03
I’m getting to where my favorite season is spring. The summers here are just too hot now.
Anddddd our rain chances for tomorrow have apparently started vanishing into thin air.
It depends on the year. In College Station, we can see more wind (southerly) and severe weather. The wind brings some "wind chill" so I am all for it.
The rain chances tomorrow night have sunk from 70% to 40%, but there could be severe cells Friday.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Yeah. Greensboro, NC has 10- 15 mph winds 65-75°F all week. Lows in the 40s. My kind of Spring.
We try up here. The grass is green during the first week of April and first week of October. There are no guarantees except for that. Most bushes, foliage, trees die either due to drought, our alkaline soil, the gray clay, or our alkaline water. We planted gardenias and azaleas our first year here. Noobs! Once we started to water they were dead in just two weeks. lol We laughed with a Lowes worker when we saw the Houston warehouse had shipped gardenias to our local store.
We have barely won the battle of the weeds in the front lawn and landscaping beds. For now. The backyard continues to mockingly dance with weeds galore, despite pulling out the professional-level heavy lumber: 0.48% Barricade...in addition to weed and feed, Preen pre-emergence.
Horticulture in the Brazos Valley is not for the faint of heart.