458
FXUS64 KHGX 191142
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
642 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 254 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025
A surface low will continue to track east during the day today,
and its associated cold front is currently draped across Central
Texas. Dew point values behind the front are registering in the
teens, and this trend is expected to continue as the front crosses
through Southeast Texas later this morning. Ahead of the frontal
boundary, isolated showers may develop generally south of the I-10
corridor. Any showers are expected to come to an end by mid-
morning (9-10A) as a drier airmass moves in. Dew points will
plummet in response to the incoming dry air and winds will become
breezy with gusts to around 30 mph through the afternoon. The
combination of winds and low relative humidity have prompted an
upgrade of the previously issued Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag
Warning. This will be in effect for the western section of the
Southeast Texas. While the rest of Southeast Texas will be
excluded from the Red Flag Warning, please continue to use caution
if you plan to do any outdoor burning.
Highs for today will be in the mid 70s to mid 80s. Breezy NW
winds will usher in cooler and drier air for tonight, and with
clearing skies, radiational cooling will be enhanced. This will
result in much cooler lows tonight as temperatures drop into the
40s area wide. A few locations in the northern Piney Woods may dip
into the upper 30s while a few locations along the coast may
touch the low 50s.
High pressure will take over on Thursday as Southeast Texas
becomes positioned on the back side of the mid-upper trough.
Continued northerly winds will cause temperatures to struggle to
get into the 70s. Most locations should remain in the 60s to
around 70 degrees. Lows for Thursday night will be similar to
tonight`s with much of the region in the 40s.
Adams
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 254 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025
Enjoy Thursday`s springtime weather feels while you can because a
gradual warming trend will setup on Friday and continue into the
upcoming yoked as high pressure departs and moves over Southeast
CONUS and southerly flow returns. The highs on Friday will be in
the lower to mid 70s east of I-45 and in the mid to upper 70s west
of I-45. A cold front is expected to stall over Central TX on
Friday, and with the high pressure located to our east, the local
pressure gradient will tighten. This will lead to an increase in
winds during the daytime and we may possibly have southerly winds
of 15 to 20 mph with gusts of 20 to 30 mph. The pressure gradient
will slightly loosen Saturday morning and winds will relax as the
front moves northward into northern TX and OK and high pressure
shifts into the Atlantic. Gusty winds, however, may still occur
Saturday afternoon. Warmer conditions are expected with highs in
the lower 80s for many locations.
On Sunday, rain chances could return as moisture and instability
increases ahead of a cold front (possibly a backdoor front)
progged to move across Southeast TX sometime late Sunday or early
Monday. There`s the potential for our highs to drop back into the
mid to upper 70s on Monday, but will ultimately depend on how far
south the dry cooler air mass moves. If the dry air makes it
further south into the Gulf waters, then highs in the 70s are a
safe bet...but if the cooler air stays to our northeast, then we
could see a bit of a temperature gradient between the Piney Woods
region (cooler) and the Matagorda Bay region (warmer). Tranquil
conditions are expected Tuesday into Wednesday with highs rising
back into the lower to mid 80s.
Cotto
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 631 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025
CIGs creating MVFR conditions at IAH all other sites at VFR.
Expect a bounce between MVFR and VFR at IAH over the next couple
of hours before becoming VFR prevailing. Light showers will occur
ahead of an incoming cold front. FROPA is expected to arrive at
the coast by early afternoon. Winds ahead of the front will be out
of the S to SW with gusts to 25-30 kts at times. Following the
FROPA, winds will become NW and will gust to around 20 kts.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 254 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025
Hazardous marine conditions will continue this morning with winds
of 20-25 KTS and gusts to around 30 KTS and seas of 6-10 feet.
Small Craft Advisories in effect for the bays through 7 AM, for
the nearshore Gulf waters through 10 AM, and for the offshore Gulf
waters through 1 PM. The Advisory for the offshore waters may be
extended, depending on how quick seas subside. In addition, rough
surf, elevated water levels along the bays and coasts, and strong
rip currents are expected early this morning.
A cold front is expected to move across Southeast TX later this
morning, possibly pushing off the coast near noon. Additional
advisories will be needed Wednesday night into Thursday morning as
strong offshore winds and elevated seas (5 to 10 feet) develops
in the wake of the front. Gusts up to Gale strength are possible.
Low water levels in and near the bays are also possible Thursday
morning. Winds will relax Thursday afternoon and seas will
gradually subside a few hours later. Light to moderate onshore
flow and seas of 3-5 feet returns Friday and continues through
early next week.
Cotto
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 254 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025
Elevated to critical fire wx conditions are expected this
afternoon and evening for portions of the region. Humidities are
forecast to drop into the teens during that time period as drier
air pushes into the area. Winds will become breezy behind the
front with gusts to around 30 mph this afternoon. This is
particularly the case across the western portions of Southeast
Texas. Elevated winds combined with the low relative humidities
have prompted the issuance of a Red Flag Warning as an upgrade to
the previously issued Fire Weather Watch. This will be in effect
this afternoon through 7 PM this evening.
Adams
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 77 43 69 41 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 83 47 69 45 / 10 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 81 52 67 58 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this
evening for TXZ176-195>198-210>212-226-227-235-236-335.
High Rip Current Risk until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ436>439.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for GMZ330-335.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for GMZ350-355.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ370-
375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....Cotto (24)
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...Cotto (24)
March 2025
You're just livin' and dyin' in 3/4 time.jasons2k wrote: ↑Tue Mar 18, 2025 10:00 pm This March has been more like a March in Lubbock than in Houston with this crazy wind.
The Costco Pygmy Date is on life support in a pot with copper fungicide. It has been replaced by a Mediterranean Fan palm that’s already got a trunk as tall as me.
My days of wrapping palms are over for now, at least until I’m in Dunedin, Florida fulltime and have coconuts haha.
Another Lubbock kind of day, followed by a North Carolina spring day, followed by weekend heat and a modest 40% chance of rain Lucy day on Sunday evening.tireman4 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 19, 2025 9:05 am 458
FXUS64 KHGX 191142
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
642 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 254 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025
A surface low will continue to track east during the day today,
and its associated cold front is currently draped across Central
Texas. Dew point values behind the front are registering in the
teens, and this trend is expected to continue as the front crosses
through Southeast Texas later this morning. Ahead of the frontal
boundary, isolated showers may develop generally south of the I-10
corridor. Any showers are expected to come to an end by mid-
morning (9-10A) as a drier airmass moves in. Dew points will
plummet in response to the incoming dry air and winds will become
breezy with gusts to around 30 mph through the afternoon. The
combination of winds and low relative humidity have prompted an
upgrade of the previously issued Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag
Warning. This will be in effect for the western section of the
Southeast Texas. While the rest of Southeast Texas will be
excluded from the Red Flag Warning, please continue to use caution
if you plan to do any outdoor burning.
Highs for today will be in the mid 70s to mid 80s. Breezy NW
winds will usher in cooler and drier air for tonight, and with
clearing skies, radiational cooling will be enhanced. This will
result in much cooler lows tonight as temperatures drop into the
40s area wide. A few locations in the northern Piney Woods may dip
into the upper 30s while a few locations along the coast may
touch the low 50s.
High pressure will take over on Thursday as Southeast Texas
becomes positioned on the back side of the mid-upper trough.
Continued northerly winds will cause temperatures to struggle to
get into the 70s. Most locations should remain in the 60s to
around 70 degrees. Lows for Thursday night will be similar to
tonight`s with much of the region in the 40s.
Adams
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 254 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025
Enjoy Thursday`s springtime weather feels while you can because a
gradual warming trend will setup on Friday and continue into the
upcoming yoked as high pressure departs and moves over Southeast
CONUS and southerly flow returns. The highs on Friday will be in
the lower to mid 70s east of I-45 and in the mid to upper 70s west
of I-45. A cold front is expected to stall over Central TX on
Friday, and with the high pressure located to our east, the local
pressure gradient will tighten. This will lead to an increase in
winds during the daytime and we may possibly have southerly winds
of 15 to 20 mph with gusts of 20 to 30 mph. The pressure gradient
will slightly loosen Saturday morning and winds will relax as the
front moves northward into northern TX and OK and high pressure
shifts into the Atlantic. Gusty winds, however, may still occur
Saturday afternoon. Warmer conditions are expected with highs in
the lower 80s for many locations.
On Sunday, rain chances could return as moisture and instability
increases ahead of a cold front (possibly a backdoor front)
progged to move across Southeast TX sometime late Sunday or early
Monday. There`s the potential for our highs to drop back into the
mid to upper 70s on Monday, but will ultimately depend on how far
south the dry cooler air mass moves. If the dry air makes it
further south into the Gulf waters, then highs in the 70s are a
safe bet...but if the cooler air stays to our northeast, then we
could see a bit of a temperature gradient between the Piney Woods
region (cooler) and the Matagorda Bay region (warmer). Tranquil
conditions are expected Tuesday into Wednesday with highs rising
back into the lower to mid 80s.
Cotto
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 631 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025
CIGs creating MVFR conditions at IAH all other sites at VFR.
Expect a bounce between MVFR and VFR at IAH over the next couple
of hours before becoming VFR prevailing. Light showers will occur
ahead of an incoming cold front. FROPA is expected to arrive at
the coast by early afternoon. Winds ahead of the front will be out
of the S to SW with gusts to 25-30 kts at times. Following the
FROPA, winds will become NW and will gust to around 20 kts.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 254 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025
Hazardous marine conditions will continue this morning with winds
of 20-25 KTS and gusts to around 30 KTS and seas of 6-10 feet.
Small Craft Advisories in effect for the bays through 7 AM, for
the nearshore Gulf waters through 10 AM, and for the offshore Gulf
waters through 1 PM. The Advisory for the offshore waters may be
extended, depending on how quick seas subside. In addition, rough
surf, elevated water levels along the bays and coasts, and strong
rip currents are expected early this morning.
A cold front is expected to move across Southeast TX later this
morning, possibly pushing off the coast near noon. Additional
advisories will be needed Wednesday night into Thursday morning as
strong offshore winds and elevated seas (5 to 10 feet) develops
in the wake of the front. Gusts up to Gale strength are possible.
Low water levels in and near the bays are also possible Thursday
morning. Winds will relax Thursday afternoon and seas will
gradually subside a few hours later. Light to moderate onshore
flow and seas of 3-5 feet returns Friday and continues through
early next week.
Cotto
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 254 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025
Elevated to critical fire wx conditions are expected this
afternoon and evening for portions of the region. Humidities are
forecast to drop into the teens during that time period as drier
air pushes into the area. Winds will become breezy behind the
front with gusts to around 30 mph this afternoon. This is
particularly the case across the western portions of Southeast
Texas. Elevated winds combined with the low relative humidities
have prompted the issuance of a Red Flag Warning as an upgrade to
the previously issued Fire Weather Watch. This will be in effect
this afternoon through 7 PM this evening.
Adams
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 77 43 69 41 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 83 47 69 45 / 10 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 81 52 67 58 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this
evening for TXZ176-195>198-210>212-226-227-235-236-335.
High Rip Current Risk until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ436>439.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for GMZ330-335.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for GMZ350-355.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ370-
375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....Cotto (24)
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...Cotto (24)
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6016
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
272
FXUS64 KHGX 192004
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
304 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025
You could easily track today`s FROPA by just looking at dew point
observations as there was a substantial drop in its wake. For
example, the Texas A&M mesonet site (Howdy Ags!) this morning went
from dew points in the low 60s to the upper 20s in just about 2
hours. With that in mind, the cold front has just made it to the
coast as of 2:30 PM CDT as Galveston has just went from a 70F dew
point down into the low 60s. In spite of the FROPA, we still have
managed to reach the upper 70s/low 80s this afternoon and that`s
just a product of warmer air aloft combined with the incoming drier
air. We`ll see the benefits of that drier air the next couple of
nights though, but before that let`s talk dust! Visible satellite
imagery shows some lingering dust still around Southeast Texas,
especially near the coast. Hazy skies will likely linger throughout
the afternoon.
Now for the good stuff! Thanks to the drier air in place, we`ll be
able to cool down into the 40s overnight. Also of note for tonight
is that a 35-40 kt LLJ moves in overhead and will help keep winds
elevated overnight. Wind speeds will increase around midnight along
the coast with sustained winds approaching 20-25 mph and gusts up to
35 mph at times. As a result, a Wind Advisory has been issued for
the barrier islands from 10pm this evening through 10am Thursday
morning. Another round of breezy north-northwesterly winds is in
store for Thursday, but with 850mb temperatures around the 10th
percentile...we`ll only see temperatures reach the upper 60s to low
70s in the afternoon. Not bad for the first day of Spring
(Vernal/Spring Equinox is at 4:01 AM CDT Thursday)! Surface high
pressure will be overhead on Thursday, so expect winds to become
light and variable going into Thursday night. This will lead to
overnight temperatures falling into 40s areawide once again...and
some upper 30s are likely across the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods.
Onshore flow returns late Thursday night as surface high pressure
slides off to the east. That sets us up for a warming trend that
carries over into the long term period...
Batiste
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025
Moisture return gets underway on Friday as surface high pressure
over the South Central CONUS drifts eastward into the Central Gulf.
Gradual increases in both temperatures and low-level moisture can be
expected into Sunday afternoon ahead of the approach of our next
system later on Sunday. Look for high temperatures to climb into the
mid 70s for most locations on Friday and the lower/mid 80s on
Saturday and Sunday. Low temperatures will concurrently reach the
50s on Friday night and lower 60s on Saturday night given the
modest but persistent warm advection regime in place.
Our main area of focus in the long term surrounds the approach of a
cold front on Sunday night and the associated chance for some strong
to severe thunderstorms to develop in the evening hours. Lee
cyclogenesis along the Rockies will enhance the surface pressure
gradient on Sunday, supplying deeper low-level moisture to the area.
A surface cold front associated with this deepening system will push
through the Southern Plains over the course of the day and approach
the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods during the evening. Environmental
parameters currently favor the development of strong to severe
storms for areas north of the I-10 corridor, with forecast soundings
showing surface based instability in excess of 2000 J/kg, DCAPE of
around 1000 J/kg, effective shear of around 35 knots, and a
breakable capping inversion at approximately 800-750mb. It`s still a
bit early to pinpoint the exact location most favorable for severe
storm development, but as things stand there is a possibility for
all modes of severe weather north of the I-10 corridor. The SPC
maintains a 15% Risk area for the northern zones on Sunday.
As the front moves through the area, expect a brief shift to
offshore winds before an easterly flow redevelops on Monday. Mild,
seasonable conditions can be expected through the middle of next
week with highs in the upper 70s/lower 80s and lows in the upper
50s/lower 60s.
Cady
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025
Drier air is moving in following the passage of a cold front and
has brought along some dust as well. Dust seems to be mainly aloft
but has caused some isolated spots of reduced visibility.
Otherwise, the main story will be the gusty northwesterly winds
through the afternoon and into tonight. Sustained winds will
mainly be around 15 kt with gusts up to 20-25 kt. Going into
tonight, a low-level jet will move in overhead allowing for winds
to remain around 10 kt through the overnight hours. This is also
expected to cause a brief surge in winds along the coast with GLS
seeing sustained winds around 20-25 kt and gusts over 30 kt after
06Z. Gusty north-northwesterly winds are expected for Thursday as
well with VFR conditions prevailing.
Batiste
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 304 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025
Strong north winds and elevated seas are expected after sunset as a
cold front pushes through the area and offshore. Sustained winds
near 30 knots, as well as gusts to Gale force, can be expected into
tomorrow morning. As such, a Small Craft Advisory is in effect
beginning at 9 PM. However, conditions will be monitored closely in
case an upgrade to a Gale Warning is necessary. Additionally, during
low tide overnight, low water levels are expected in Galveston Bay,
prompting a Low Water Advisory. Winds and seas will diminish heading
into Thursday afternoon/evening, and onshore flow returns on Friday.
Light onshore flow will remain in place through Sunday afternoon.
Cady
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 304 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025
Elevated to critical fire wx conditions are expected this afternoon
and evening for portions of the region. Humidities are forecast to
drop into the teens during that time period as drier air pushes into
the area. Winds will become breezy behind the front with gusts to
around 30 mph this afternoon. This is particularly the case across
the western portions of Southeast Texas. Elevated winds combined
with the low relative humidities have prompted the issuance of a Red
Flag Warning as an upgrade to the previously issued Fire Weather
Watch. This will be in effect this afternoon through 7 PM this
evening.
Although northerly to north-northwesterly winds on Thursday will be
slightly lower than what is experienced today, minimum relative
humidity values are still anticipated to fall into the 15 to 25
percent range. This means that wind speeds are the only thing
keeping us from another round of elevated fire weather conditions,
but we will still be borderline so continue to practice fire weather
safety.
Adams/Batiste
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 42 68 40 78 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 48 69 44 76 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 52 68 58 70 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ176-195>198-
210>212-226-227-235-236-335.
Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Thursday for
TXZ436>439.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon CDT Thursday
for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.
Low Water Advisory from 1 AM to 7 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ335.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Batiste
LONG TERM....Cady
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...Cady
FXUS64 KHGX 192004
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
304 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025
You could easily track today`s FROPA by just looking at dew point
observations as there was a substantial drop in its wake. For
example, the Texas A&M mesonet site (Howdy Ags!) this morning went
from dew points in the low 60s to the upper 20s in just about 2
hours. With that in mind, the cold front has just made it to the
coast as of 2:30 PM CDT as Galveston has just went from a 70F dew
point down into the low 60s. In spite of the FROPA, we still have
managed to reach the upper 70s/low 80s this afternoon and that`s
just a product of warmer air aloft combined with the incoming drier
air. We`ll see the benefits of that drier air the next couple of
nights though, but before that let`s talk dust! Visible satellite
imagery shows some lingering dust still around Southeast Texas,
especially near the coast. Hazy skies will likely linger throughout
the afternoon.
Now for the good stuff! Thanks to the drier air in place, we`ll be
able to cool down into the 40s overnight. Also of note for tonight
is that a 35-40 kt LLJ moves in overhead and will help keep winds
elevated overnight. Wind speeds will increase around midnight along
the coast with sustained winds approaching 20-25 mph and gusts up to
35 mph at times. As a result, a Wind Advisory has been issued for
the barrier islands from 10pm this evening through 10am Thursday
morning. Another round of breezy north-northwesterly winds is in
store for Thursday, but with 850mb temperatures around the 10th
percentile...we`ll only see temperatures reach the upper 60s to low
70s in the afternoon. Not bad for the first day of Spring
(Vernal/Spring Equinox is at 4:01 AM CDT Thursday)! Surface high
pressure will be overhead on Thursday, so expect winds to become
light and variable going into Thursday night. This will lead to
overnight temperatures falling into 40s areawide once again...and
some upper 30s are likely across the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods.
Onshore flow returns late Thursday night as surface high pressure
slides off to the east. That sets us up for a warming trend that
carries over into the long term period...
Batiste
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025
Moisture return gets underway on Friday as surface high pressure
over the South Central CONUS drifts eastward into the Central Gulf.
Gradual increases in both temperatures and low-level moisture can be
expected into Sunday afternoon ahead of the approach of our next
system later on Sunday. Look for high temperatures to climb into the
mid 70s for most locations on Friday and the lower/mid 80s on
Saturday and Sunday. Low temperatures will concurrently reach the
50s on Friday night and lower 60s on Saturday night given the
modest but persistent warm advection regime in place.
Our main area of focus in the long term surrounds the approach of a
cold front on Sunday night and the associated chance for some strong
to severe thunderstorms to develop in the evening hours. Lee
cyclogenesis along the Rockies will enhance the surface pressure
gradient on Sunday, supplying deeper low-level moisture to the area.
A surface cold front associated with this deepening system will push
through the Southern Plains over the course of the day and approach
the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods during the evening. Environmental
parameters currently favor the development of strong to severe
storms for areas north of the I-10 corridor, with forecast soundings
showing surface based instability in excess of 2000 J/kg, DCAPE of
around 1000 J/kg, effective shear of around 35 knots, and a
breakable capping inversion at approximately 800-750mb. It`s still a
bit early to pinpoint the exact location most favorable for severe
storm development, but as things stand there is a possibility for
all modes of severe weather north of the I-10 corridor. The SPC
maintains a 15% Risk area for the northern zones on Sunday.
As the front moves through the area, expect a brief shift to
offshore winds before an easterly flow redevelops on Monday. Mild,
seasonable conditions can be expected through the middle of next
week with highs in the upper 70s/lower 80s and lows in the upper
50s/lower 60s.
Cady
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025
Drier air is moving in following the passage of a cold front and
has brought along some dust as well. Dust seems to be mainly aloft
but has caused some isolated spots of reduced visibility.
Otherwise, the main story will be the gusty northwesterly winds
through the afternoon and into tonight. Sustained winds will
mainly be around 15 kt with gusts up to 20-25 kt. Going into
tonight, a low-level jet will move in overhead allowing for winds
to remain around 10 kt through the overnight hours. This is also
expected to cause a brief surge in winds along the coast with GLS
seeing sustained winds around 20-25 kt and gusts over 30 kt after
06Z. Gusty north-northwesterly winds are expected for Thursday as
well with VFR conditions prevailing.
Batiste
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 304 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025
Strong north winds and elevated seas are expected after sunset as a
cold front pushes through the area and offshore. Sustained winds
near 30 knots, as well as gusts to Gale force, can be expected into
tomorrow morning. As such, a Small Craft Advisory is in effect
beginning at 9 PM. However, conditions will be monitored closely in
case an upgrade to a Gale Warning is necessary. Additionally, during
low tide overnight, low water levels are expected in Galveston Bay,
prompting a Low Water Advisory. Winds and seas will diminish heading
into Thursday afternoon/evening, and onshore flow returns on Friday.
Light onshore flow will remain in place through Sunday afternoon.
Cady
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 304 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025
Elevated to critical fire wx conditions are expected this afternoon
and evening for portions of the region. Humidities are forecast to
drop into the teens during that time period as drier air pushes into
the area. Winds will become breezy behind the front with gusts to
around 30 mph this afternoon. This is particularly the case across
the western portions of Southeast Texas. Elevated winds combined
with the low relative humidities have prompted the issuance of a Red
Flag Warning as an upgrade to the previously issued Fire Weather
Watch. This will be in effect this afternoon through 7 PM this
evening.
Although northerly to north-northwesterly winds on Thursday will be
slightly lower than what is experienced today, minimum relative
humidity values are still anticipated to fall into the 15 to 25
percent range. This means that wind speeds are the only thing
keeping us from another round of elevated fire weather conditions,
but we will still be borderline so continue to practice fire weather
safety.
Adams/Batiste
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 42 68 40 78 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 48 69 44 76 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 52 68 58 70 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ176-195>198-
210>212-226-227-235-236-335.
Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Thursday for
TXZ436>439.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon CDT Thursday
for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.
Low Water Advisory from 1 AM to 7 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ335.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Batiste
LONG TERM....Cady
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...Cady
NW25 G35 Dusty. DP = 31°F. Welcome to the rodeo.
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biggerbyte
- Posts: 1396
- Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:15 am
- Location: Porter, Texas. (Montgomery County)
- Contact:
Hey gang, did it rain this morning? I slept in and woke up to water on my cars. The sprinklers ran, but they don't usually sling water anywhere but the grass.
It was misting on my way to work this morning.biggerbyte wrote: ↑Wed Mar 19, 2025 5:28 pm Hey gang, did it rain this morning? I slept in and woke up to water on my cars. The sprinklers ran, but they don't usually sling water anywhere but the grass.
Nothing appreciable at all other than to create water droplets on cars.biggerbyte wrote: ↑Wed Mar 19, 2025 5:28 pm Hey gang, did it rain this morning? I slept in and woke up to water on my cars. The sprinklers ran, but they don't usually sling water anywhere but the grass.
I already loathe Spring 2025
Wildfire evac near Cleveland, per Jeff Lindner. 
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tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6016
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
139
FXUS64 KHGX 201128
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
628 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025
High pressure will settle into Southeast Texas today. Winds will be
out of the north today at around 10-15 mph with gusts to around 25
mph during the afternoon hours. These northerly winds will continue
to supply much drier air to the area, resulting in RH percentages
dropping into the teens to low 20s again this afternoon. As a
result, have opted to issue another Red Flag Warning for today for
Inland Southeast Texas (Barrier Islands are excluded). This will be
in effect from 1 PM this afternoon through 7 PM this evening.
The positive part about the northerly winds is that they are also
drawing in cooler air, which will keep high temperatures on the
cooler side today. Expect highs in the 60s to around 70 degrees
today with mostly sunny to sunny skies.
Onshore flow will return later tonight as the surface high pressure
continues off to the east. In a bit of a rinse and repeat fashion,
this will once again set the stage for a warming trend heading into
the weekend. Highs for Friday will be in the 70s area wide. Lows
Friday night will be in the 50s inland and low 60s on the coast.
Adams
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025
By Saturday, surface high pressure will be off to the east over the
Northwestern Gulf/Florida with zonal flow in place aloft. Steady
onshore flow in this regime will facilitate WAA/moisture advection
over the weekend with highs progged to reach the 70s to mid 80s and
overnight lows in the 60s. Warm and largely quiet weather to start
the weekend.
Sunday will see a more active weather pattern emerge as a mid/upper
level trough digs into the Northern Plains/Mississippi River Valley.
Moisture advection strengthens as the surface lows associated with
this system deepen, raising PWs to 1.0-1.4 inches. As this system
tracks eastward towards the Great Lakes, it will push a cold front
into the region during the late afternoon/evening on Sunday. With
respect to convective parameters, LREF means show 1250-2000 J/kg
of SFC CAPE and 30-40 knots of Bulk shear in place across the
region ahead of the approaching front. Both of these components
are maximized across the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods area, which
looks to be more at risk of seeing stronger, possibly severe
storms. SRH is on the low side, only around 100-150 m2/s2 in the
lowest 3km preceding the boundary. Narrowing in on forecast
soundings near Crockett/Livingston, we can see dry mid levels,
semi-dry low levels with high LCL heights, which looks less
favorable in terms of tornadic storms. Otherwise, weak capping is
progged to be in place, with LREF mean CIN ranging from -25 to -50
J/KG around/north of the I-10 corridor. With this, Thermal
Expansion Index values near 25, cloud layer shear of 60 knots,
mean MU CAPE upwards 2600 J/KG and mid-level lapse rates over 8
degC/KM still indicate a potent environment for severe weather.
As it currently stands, SPC has areas generally north of a line from
College Station to Livingston under a Slight Risk of Severe Weather
for Sunday. This translates to a 15% chance of severe weather
occuring within 25 miles of any given point. While 15% doesn`t sound
all that high, it is in the context that this outlook is for day 5
of the forecast, which is not often seen unless confidence is high.
With respect to timing, severe storms will be most likely occur
during the afternoon through the evening on Sunday, with storms
tapering off overnight into Monday as the front moves towards the
coast. With respect to the specific hazards, large hail and damaging
wind gusts will be the main severe weather hazards. It`ll be worth
monitoring the forecast these next few days to see how this threat
evolves.
The cold front will push offshore by Monday morning as surface high
pressure fills in across the Southern Plains. North/northeast winds
veer as this surface high slides east, with onshore winds returning
Tuesday afternoon/evening. Low PWs and weak mid-level ridging should
keep benign conditions in place through mid next week with sparse
rain chances. Highs dip down into the 70s on Monday, but should
bounce back into the 80s at most places by Tuesday.
03
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025
VFR conditions at all terminals this morning. VFR conditions will
prevail through the rest of the TAF period. Winds will be out of
the north at 10-15kts, gusting to 20-25 kts through the afternoon.
Light and variable winds expected tonight, becoming onshore
Friday morning.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 344 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025
Strong offshore winds of 20 to 30 knots with gusts up to 35 knots
continue early today, but should slowly ease throughout the morning.
These strong winds have brought low water Levels in the bays under
-1.0 ft MLLW and wave heights of 6 to 11 feet over the Gulf waters.
A Low Water Advisory remains in effect across the bays through 10 AM
this morning. A Small Craft Advisory will be in effect for all
waters through 1 PM to allow these winds and seas to diminish. Winds
become light this evening, veering overnight and becoming
southeasterly on Friday. Light to moderate onshore flow continues
into Sunday with showers and storms developing during the afternoon
and overnight as a cold front pushes offshore. East/Northeast flow
develops on Monday behind the front.
03
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 344 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025
While winds will not be as strong as the previous few days (10-
15g25mph), fuels are very dry and relative humidity values are very
low (teens into the low 20s. As a result, a Red Flag Warning has
been issued for Southeast Texas today from 1 PM through 7 PM. The
islands are excluded from the warning. Please avoid outdoor
burning, open flames or sparks, and parking in grassy areas.
Adams
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 68 40 78 53 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 69 44 76 57 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 68 58 70 63 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this
evening for TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-
235>238-300-313-335>338.
Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ214-313-335>338.
Wind Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for TXZ436>439.
GM...Low Water Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for GMZ330-335.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ330-
335-350-355-370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...03
FXUS64 KHGX 201128
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
628 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025
High pressure will settle into Southeast Texas today. Winds will be
out of the north today at around 10-15 mph with gusts to around 25
mph during the afternoon hours. These northerly winds will continue
to supply much drier air to the area, resulting in RH percentages
dropping into the teens to low 20s again this afternoon. As a
result, have opted to issue another Red Flag Warning for today for
Inland Southeast Texas (Barrier Islands are excluded). This will be
in effect from 1 PM this afternoon through 7 PM this evening.
The positive part about the northerly winds is that they are also
drawing in cooler air, which will keep high temperatures on the
cooler side today. Expect highs in the 60s to around 70 degrees
today with mostly sunny to sunny skies.
Onshore flow will return later tonight as the surface high pressure
continues off to the east. In a bit of a rinse and repeat fashion,
this will once again set the stage for a warming trend heading into
the weekend. Highs for Friday will be in the 70s area wide. Lows
Friday night will be in the 50s inland and low 60s on the coast.
Adams
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025
By Saturday, surface high pressure will be off to the east over the
Northwestern Gulf/Florida with zonal flow in place aloft. Steady
onshore flow in this regime will facilitate WAA/moisture advection
over the weekend with highs progged to reach the 70s to mid 80s and
overnight lows in the 60s. Warm and largely quiet weather to start
the weekend.
Sunday will see a more active weather pattern emerge as a mid/upper
level trough digs into the Northern Plains/Mississippi River Valley.
Moisture advection strengthens as the surface lows associated with
this system deepen, raising PWs to 1.0-1.4 inches. As this system
tracks eastward towards the Great Lakes, it will push a cold front
into the region during the late afternoon/evening on Sunday. With
respect to convective parameters, LREF means show 1250-2000 J/kg
of SFC CAPE and 30-40 knots of Bulk shear in place across the
region ahead of the approaching front. Both of these components
are maximized across the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods area, which
looks to be more at risk of seeing stronger, possibly severe
storms. SRH is on the low side, only around 100-150 m2/s2 in the
lowest 3km preceding the boundary. Narrowing in on forecast
soundings near Crockett/Livingston, we can see dry mid levels,
semi-dry low levels with high LCL heights, which looks less
favorable in terms of tornadic storms. Otherwise, weak capping is
progged to be in place, with LREF mean CIN ranging from -25 to -50
J/KG around/north of the I-10 corridor. With this, Thermal
Expansion Index values near 25, cloud layer shear of 60 knots,
mean MU CAPE upwards 2600 J/KG and mid-level lapse rates over 8
degC/KM still indicate a potent environment for severe weather.
As it currently stands, SPC has areas generally north of a line from
College Station to Livingston under a Slight Risk of Severe Weather
for Sunday. This translates to a 15% chance of severe weather
occuring within 25 miles of any given point. While 15% doesn`t sound
all that high, it is in the context that this outlook is for day 5
of the forecast, which is not often seen unless confidence is high.
With respect to timing, severe storms will be most likely occur
during the afternoon through the evening on Sunday, with storms
tapering off overnight into Monday as the front moves towards the
coast. With respect to the specific hazards, large hail and damaging
wind gusts will be the main severe weather hazards. It`ll be worth
monitoring the forecast these next few days to see how this threat
evolves.
The cold front will push offshore by Monday morning as surface high
pressure fills in across the Southern Plains. North/northeast winds
veer as this surface high slides east, with onshore winds returning
Tuesday afternoon/evening. Low PWs and weak mid-level ridging should
keep benign conditions in place through mid next week with sparse
rain chances. Highs dip down into the 70s on Monday, but should
bounce back into the 80s at most places by Tuesday.
03
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025
VFR conditions at all terminals this morning. VFR conditions will
prevail through the rest of the TAF period. Winds will be out of
the north at 10-15kts, gusting to 20-25 kts through the afternoon.
Light and variable winds expected tonight, becoming onshore
Friday morning.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 344 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025
Strong offshore winds of 20 to 30 knots with gusts up to 35 knots
continue early today, but should slowly ease throughout the morning.
These strong winds have brought low water Levels in the bays under
-1.0 ft MLLW and wave heights of 6 to 11 feet over the Gulf waters.
A Low Water Advisory remains in effect across the bays through 10 AM
this morning. A Small Craft Advisory will be in effect for all
waters through 1 PM to allow these winds and seas to diminish. Winds
become light this evening, veering overnight and becoming
southeasterly on Friday. Light to moderate onshore flow continues
into Sunday with showers and storms developing during the afternoon
and overnight as a cold front pushes offshore. East/Northeast flow
develops on Monday behind the front.
03
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 344 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025
While winds will not be as strong as the previous few days (10-
15g25mph), fuels are very dry and relative humidity values are very
low (teens into the low 20s. As a result, a Red Flag Warning has
been issued for Southeast Texas today from 1 PM through 7 PM. The
islands are excluded from the warning. Please avoid outdoor
burning, open flames or sparks, and parking in grassy areas.
Adams
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 68 40 78 53 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 69 44 76 57 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 68 58 70 63 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this
evening for TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-
235>238-300-313-335>338.
Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ214-313-335>338.
Wind Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for TXZ436>439.
GM...Low Water Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for GMZ330-335.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ330-
335-350-355-370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...03
Well the models have been on & off about rain chances towards the end of the month and the CPC seems to think rain will be coming back, we’ll see. I’m not sold yet though.
Might be stormy end of month…
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Stratton20
- Posts: 5354
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Im checking out until next sinter, summer weather is just flat out boring to me , i’ll probably come back if their is a tropical threat to discuss, hopefully we can hit the fast forward button on these next few months of utter miserable weather thats coming
There’s plenty of other weather to be excited about besides winter weather and tropical threats, but that’s just my opinion.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 20, 2025 5:45 pm Im checking out until next sinter, summer weather is just flat out boring to me , i’ll probably come back if their is a tropical threat to discuss, hopefully we can hit the fast forward button on these next few months of utter miserable weather thats coming
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Stratton20
- Posts: 5354
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Cpv17 im only interested in tropical systems/ winter weather, severe weather doesnt do it for me lol