Most models indicate Monday morning is when we would start to see impacts
Hurricane Beryl
I mean it looks way r of the forecast track.
Perhaps the HAFS models were right. Maybe not with a relocation but tugged n somewhat off the YP with the deep convection to the n. Doubt it's the ULL to the sw that's slinging it that way.
Perhaps the HAFS models were right. Maybe not with a relocation but tugged n somewhat off the YP with the deep convection to the n. Doubt it's the ULL to the sw that's slinging it that way.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6024
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
Dr. Levi Cowan
@TropicalTidbits
If #Beryl's mid-level and surface centers are collocated and actually about to exit the Yucatan, shelf waters there are relatively cool, so it will likely take a minute for Beryl to begin rebuilding an inner convective core. However, on the whole, seeing Beryl spend less time over land probably increases the odds of significant restrengthening over the Gulf of Mexico.
@TropicalTidbits
If #Beryl's mid-level and surface centers are collocated and actually about to exit the Yucatan, shelf waters there are relatively cool, so it will likely take a minute for Beryl to begin rebuilding an inner convective core. However, on the whole, seeing Beryl spend less time over land probably increases the odds of significant restrengthening over the Gulf of Mexico.
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19685
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- Contact:
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Beryl Advisory Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
400 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024
...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN GULF COAST...
...CENTER OF BERYL EXPECTED TO EMERGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.2N 89.2W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM ESE OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 610 MI...985 KM ESE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Hurricane Watch is now in effect for the Texas coast from the
mouth of the Rio Grande northward to Sargent.
A Storm Surge Watch is now in effect for the Texas coast from the
mouth of the Rio Grande northward to Sargent.
The Meteorological Service of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch
for the northeastern coast of Mexico from Barra el Mezquital to
the mouth of the Rio Grande.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The Texas coast from the mouth of the Rio Grande northward
to Sargent
* The northeastern coast from mainland Mexico from Barra el
Mezquital to the mouth of the Rio Grande
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* The Texas coast from the mouth of the Rio Grande northward
to Sargent
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico west of Cabo
Catoche to Campeche
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
Interests elsewhere in northeastern Mexico and the Texas coast
should closely monitor the progress of Beryl. Additional watches
and warnings will likely be issued for portions of this area
tonight and Saturday.
For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beryl was
located near latitude 21.2 North, longitude 89.2 West. Beryl is
moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A west-
northwestward motion is expected through tonight, with the center
forecast to emerge over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the
next few hours. A turn toward the northwest is expected on
Saturday, with the center of Beryl expected to approach the western
Gulf coast late Sunday and Sunday night.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued weakening is expected during the
next few hours as Beryl crosses the Yucatan Peninsula.
Re-intensification is expected once the center moves back over the
Gulf of Mexico, and Beryl is forecast to regain hurricane status
on Sunday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the NHC website at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of
the northern Yucatan Peninsula and should spread westward along the
Gulf coast of the peninsula for the next several hours.
Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area along
the western Gulf coast by late Sunday, and tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area on Sunday.
STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide
will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Baffin Bay, TX to Sargent, TX...3-5 ft
Corpus Christi Bay...3-5 ft
Matagorda Bay...3-5 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to Baffin Bay, TX...2-4 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge.
Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet
above ground level in areas of onshore winds along the west and
north coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula in the tropical storm
warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves.
RAINFALL: Through today Beryl is expected to produce rainfall
totals of 4 to 6 inches, with localized amounts of 10 inches, across
the Yucatan Peninsula, with scattered instances of flash flooding
anticipated.
Heavy rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with localized amounts of 15 inches
is expected across portions of the Texas Gulf Coast and eastern
Texas beginning late Sunday through the middle of next week. This
rainfall is expected to produce areas of flash and urban flooding.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Storm Beryl, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero
SURF: Large swells generated by Beryl are currently impacting
portions of the coast of Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and the
Yucatan Peninsula. The swells are expected to reach eastern Mexico
and much of the Gulf Coast of the U.S. by late today. These swells
are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Beven
Tropical Storm Beryl Advisory Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
400 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024
...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN GULF COAST...
...CENTER OF BERYL EXPECTED TO EMERGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.2N 89.2W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM ESE OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 610 MI...985 KM ESE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Hurricane Watch is now in effect for the Texas coast from the
mouth of the Rio Grande northward to Sargent.
A Storm Surge Watch is now in effect for the Texas coast from the
mouth of the Rio Grande northward to Sargent.
The Meteorological Service of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch
for the northeastern coast of Mexico from Barra el Mezquital to
the mouth of the Rio Grande.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The Texas coast from the mouth of the Rio Grande northward
to Sargent
* The northeastern coast from mainland Mexico from Barra el
Mezquital to the mouth of the Rio Grande
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* The Texas coast from the mouth of the Rio Grande northward
to Sargent
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico west of Cabo
Catoche to Campeche
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
Interests elsewhere in northeastern Mexico and the Texas coast
should closely monitor the progress of Beryl. Additional watches
and warnings will likely be issued for portions of this area
tonight and Saturday.
For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beryl was
located near latitude 21.2 North, longitude 89.2 West. Beryl is
moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A west-
northwestward motion is expected through tonight, with the center
forecast to emerge over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the
next few hours. A turn toward the northwest is expected on
Saturday, with the center of Beryl expected to approach the western
Gulf coast late Sunday and Sunday night.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued weakening is expected during the
next few hours as Beryl crosses the Yucatan Peninsula.
Re-intensification is expected once the center moves back over the
Gulf of Mexico, and Beryl is forecast to regain hurricane status
on Sunday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the NHC website at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of
the northern Yucatan Peninsula and should spread westward along the
Gulf coast of the peninsula for the next several hours.
Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area along
the western Gulf coast by late Sunday, and tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area on Sunday.
STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide
will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Baffin Bay, TX to Sargent, TX...3-5 ft
Corpus Christi Bay...3-5 ft
Matagorda Bay...3-5 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to Baffin Bay, TX...2-4 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge.
Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet
above ground level in areas of onshore winds along the west and
north coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula in the tropical storm
warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves.
RAINFALL: Through today Beryl is expected to produce rainfall
totals of 4 to 6 inches, with localized amounts of 10 inches, across
the Yucatan Peninsula, with scattered instances of flash flooding
anticipated.
Heavy rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with localized amounts of 15 inches
is expected across portions of the Texas Gulf Coast and eastern
Texas beginning late Sunday through the middle of next week. This
rainfall is expected to produce areas of flash and urban flooding.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Storm Beryl, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero
SURF: Large swells generated by Beryl are currently impacting
portions of the coast of Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and the
Yucatan Peninsula. The swells are expected to reach eastern Mexico
and much of the Gulf Coast of the U.S. by late today. These swells
are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Beven
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19685
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
400 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024
Beryl has weakened below hurricane strength while crossing the
northern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula. Satellite imagery shows
that the cloud tops in the central convection have warmed except
for one small area just northeast of the center, and radar data
from Cancun shows that the rainbands near the center have become
less organized. The initial intensity is reduced to a somewhat
uncertain 55 kt, as there is little in the way of wind data from the
inner core.
The initial motion is now 295/13 kt. There is little change in
the philosophy or the meteorology of the track forecast. For the
next 12 h or so, Beryl should be steered generally
west-northwestward by the western portion of the subtropical ridge
over the southeastern United States. After that, a turn toward the
northwest is likely as the storm moves towards a break in the ridge
caused by a combination of a trough in the mid-latitude westerlies
over the central United States and an upper-level trough moving
westward over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. This motion should
bring the center near the western Gulf coast in about 72 h.
Subsequently, a northward motion through the break appears likely.
The track guidance has shifted eastward since the previous advisory,
with the most notable change being the ECMWF model, which is now on
the eastern side of the guidance envelope. The new forecast track
is shifted east of the previous track, but it still lies to the
west of the various consensus models. Therefore, additional
adjustments of the forecast track could be necessary tonight.
Beryl will likely weaken a little more before the center emerges
over the Gulf of Mexico this evening. After that, it could take
12-24 h for the cyclone's structure to recover over the Gulf of
Mexico before re-intensification begins in earnest, and during
this time the large-scale models suggest continued southwesterly
shear. Based on this and the overall trend of the intensity
guidance, the new forecast calls for gradual strengthening to start
around 24 h, and the first part of this forecast could be a bit
generous. However, the upper-level winds become more favorable as
the cyclone approaches the western Gulf coast after 36 h, with
decreasing shear and increasing upper-level divergence. This
combination should allow a faster rate of strengthening. The new
intensity forecast now calls for an 80-kt intensity at landfall in
best agreement with the HWRF, HAFS-B, and HMON models, and this
could be conservative if Beryl stays over water longer than
currently forecast.
Users are reminded that the average NHC track error at day 3 is
around 100 miles, and it remains too soon to pinpoint where the
greatest impacts will be.
Key Messages:
1. There is an increasing risk of damaging hurricane-force winds and
life-threatening storm surge in portions of northeastern Mexico and
the lower and middle Texas Coast late Sunday and Monday where
Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches have been issued. Additional
watches may be required tonight or early Saturday. Interests in
these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.
2. Flash and urban flooding are possible across portions of the
Texas Gulf Coast and eastern Texas from Sunday through the middle of
next week.
3. Rip currents will cause life-threatening beach conditions through
the weekend across much of the Gulf Coast. Beachgoers should heed
warning flags and the advice of lifeguards and local officials
before venturing into the water.
4. Strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall will continue over
northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula this evening.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/2100Z 21.2N 89.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
12H 06/0600Z 22.0N 91.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
24H 06/1800Z 23.2N 93.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 24.3N 94.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 25.3N 95.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 08/0600Z 26.5N 96.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 27.8N 97.3W 80 KT 90 MPH...AT COAST
96H 09/1800Z 30.5N 97.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 10/1800Z 32.5N 95.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
$$
Forecaster Beven
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
400 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024
Beryl has weakened below hurricane strength while crossing the
northern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula. Satellite imagery shows
that the cloud tops in the central convection have warmed except
for one small area just northeast of the center, and radar data
from Cancun shows that the rainbands near the center have become
less organized. The initial intensity is reduced to a somewhat
uncertain 55 kt, as there is little in the way of wind data from the
inner core.
The initial motion is now 295/13 kt. There is little change in
the philosophy or the meteorology of the track forecast. For the
next 12 h or so, Beryl should be steered generally
west-northwestward by the western portion of the subtropical ridge
over the southeastern United States. After that, a turn toward the
northwest is likely as the storm moves towards a break in the ridge
caused by a combination of a trough in the mid-latitude westerlies
over the central United States and an upper-level trough moving
westward over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. This motion should
bring the center near the western Gulf coast in about 72 h.
Subsequently, a northward motion through the break appears likely.
The track guidance has shifted eastward since the previous advisory,
with the most notable change being the ECMWF model, which is now on
the eastern side of the guidance envelope. The new forecast track
is shifted east of the previous track, but it still lies to the
west of the various consensus models. Therefore, additional
adjustments of the forecast track could be necessary tonight.
Beryl will likely weaken a little more before the center emerges
over the Gulf of Mexico this evening. After that, it could take
12-24 h for the cyclone's structure to recover over the Gulf of
Mexico before re-intensification begins in earnest, and during
this time the large-scale models suggest continued southwesterly
shear. Based on this and the overall trend of the intensity
guidance, the new forecast calls for gradual strengthening to start
around 24 h, and the first part of this forecast could be a bit
generous. However, the upper-level winds become more favorable as
the cyclone approaches the western Gulf coast after 36 h, with
decreasing shear and increasing upper-level divergence. This
combination should allow a faster rate of strengthening. The new
intensity forecast now calls for an 80-kt intensity at landfall in
best agreement with the HWRF, HAFS-B, and HMON models, and this
could be conservative if Beryl stays over water longer than
currently forecast.
Users are reminded that the average NHC track error at day 3 is
around 100 miles, and it remains too soon to pinpoint where the
greatest impacts will be.
Key Messages:
1. There is an increasing risk of damaging hurricane-force winds and
life-threatening storm surge in portions of northeastern Mexico and
the lower and middle Texas Coast late Sunday and Monday where
Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches have been issued. Additional
watches may be required tonight or early Saturday. Interests in
these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.
2. Flash and urban flooding are possible across portions of the
Texas Gulf Coast and eastern Texas from Sunday through the middle of
next week.
3. Rip currents will cause life-threatening beach conditions through
the weekend across much of the Gulf Coast. Beachgoers should heed
warning flags and the advice of lifeguards and local officials
before venturing into the water.
4. Strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall will continue over
northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula this evening.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/2100Z 21.2N 89.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
12H 06/0600Z 22.0N 91.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
24H 06/1800Z 23.2N 93.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 24.3N 94.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 25.3N 95.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 08/0600Z 26.5N 96.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 27.8N 97.3W 80 KT 90 MPH...AT COAST
96H 09/1800Z 30.5N 97.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 10/1800Z 32.5N 95.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
$$
Forecaster Beven
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Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
New track goes right up through Corpus Christi Bay. Then turns n and just to the w of Victoria. Crosses I 10 w of Schulenburg.
This gets me a tad nervous, especially if Beryl continues tracking on the right side of guidance. If it stays far enough away from the southwesterly shear.... We're gonna have some issues.
However, the upper-level winds become more favorable as
the cyclone approaches the western Gulf coast after 36 h, with
decreasing shear and increasing upper-level divergence. This
combination should allow a faster rate of strengthening
However, the upper-level winds become more favorable as
the cyclone approaches the western Gulf coast after 36 h, with
decreasing shear and increasing upper-level divergence. This
combination should allow a faster rate of strengthening
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 5359
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
18z ICON is a direct hit to galveston
-
AtascocitaWX
- Posts: 162
- Joined: Mon Jun 19, 2017 3:29 pm
- Location: Atascocita,Tx
- Contact:
Key:
NHC:
The new forecast track is shifted east of thr previous tack,but it still lies to the west of the various consensus models. Therefore, additional adjustments of the forecast track could be nessary tonight.
They are being cautious right now
NHC:
The new forecast track is shifted east of thr previous tack,but it still lies to the west of the various consensus models. Therefore, additional adjustments of the forecast track could be nessary tonight.
They are being cautious right now
Just texted friends in Galveston to get ready and plan for the first floor to be flooded-out. This is a scenario I feared, and on a holiday weekend. Just wow.
-
AtascocitaWX
- Posts: 162
- Joined: Mon Jun 19, 2017 3:29 pm
- Location: Atascocita,Tx
- Contact:
Isn't that like 3 runs in a row on Galveston?
Rockport
to
College Station
to
Jacksonville
to
Shreveport
Last edited by DoctorMu on Fri Jul 05, 2024 4:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Overnight Sunday into Monday
You’d start to see tropical storm force conditions most likely late Sunday night into the overnight hours depending on location.
Once Beryl emerges, it's pretty much now casting. Matagorda Bay/Port Lavaca per Reed Timmer is a in the middle of where landfall could occur.
This got my attention.
Heavy rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with localized amounts of 15 inches
is expected across portions of the Texas Gulf Coast and eastern
Texas beginning late Sunday through the middle of next week. This
rainfall is expected to produce areas of flash and urban flooding.
Beryl is going to withdraw megatons of GoM moisture and dump it on SETX once she nears and hits land.
This got my attention.
Heavy rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with localized amounts of 15 inches
is expected across portions of the Texas Gulf Coast and eastern
Texas beginning late Sunday through the middle of next week. This
rainfall is expected to produce areas of flash and urban flooding.
Beryl is going to withdraw megatons of GoM moisture and dump it on SETX once she nears and hits land.
Outside of being somewhat further w with the initialization the 18z GFS looks reasonable. Landfall across Corpus/Rockport. Take in account the initialization a Matagorda landfall is as likely.
Seems like a lot of initialization location fail. Time lag? Too restrictive rules that don't allow to adjust enough for the persistent pattern of Beryl moving on the northern edge of predictions?
The trough is entering the picture sooner, rather than later.
We have a classic set-up for Beryl.
We have a classic set-up for Beryl.
Yeah - I've noted it's like the branding bias in football that affects the polls and CFP candidates.
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