Hurricane Beryl

[tireman4]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 28A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
100 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024

...BERYL WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.8N 88.8W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM ESE OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 650 MI...1045 KM ESE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...115 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Calhoun County Emergency Management has issued a voluntary evacuation for low lying areas as of today a 12 p.m.

Well Calhoun County is 55 miles south of me so this may be time to round the cattle up into metal pens.

[Texashawk]

A good thing at this point if you belong to a neighborhood FB/Instagram group, is to post about the current situation. I live in Sienna, and when I posted to our major FB group many people had no idea about the potential for trouble this weekend. Here’s what I posted, if you want to crib some of all of it for a template:

“Hey everyone. From someone who follows weather closely, especially hurricanes, I’m here to tell you that you better pay *very* close attention to Beryl over the next day or so. Trends are not looking good fo SE Texas; even though the current projection is Brownsville, things are changing fast and we may have a serious situation developing by Sunday. Have your plan ready, get your supplies NOW if you don’t already have them, and watch the weather at least twice a day. Not trying to scare anyone per se but Beryl is a unique storm and it’s acting very atypically of a storm this time of year. Be prepared and be knowledgeable!”

Actionable without being sensationalist was my goal. Good luck out there!

[tireman4]

Eric Webb
@webberweather

A strengthening hurricane #Beryl in an already favorable environment moving into the right entrance region of the jet stream leading into landfall.

What could possibly go wrong

[AtascocitaWX]

Eric Webb
@webberweather

A strengthening hurricane #Beryl in an already favorable environment moving into the right entrance region of the jet stream leading into landfall.

What could possibly go wrong

What does he mean by this?

[Pas_Bon]

Eric Webb
@webberweather

A strengthening hurricane #Beryl in an already favorable environment moving into the right entrance region of the jet stream leading into landfall.

What could possibly go wrong

What does he mean by this?

He means it’s an incredibly ripe environment for rapid intensification and very possible landfall in a very populated metro area (Houston)

[tireman4]

The next two Hurricane Hunter flights...at 3 pm and 4:30 pm CDT...



FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 42 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71
A. 06/0000Z A. 05/2330Z,06/0530Z
B. NOAA2 2202A BERYL B. AFXXX 2302A BERYL
C. 05/2000Z C. 05/2130Z
D. 21.2N 90.7W D. 21.1N 90.6W
E. 05/2200Z TO 06/0145Z E. 05/2300Z TO 06/0530Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
G. TAIL DOPPLER RADAR G. FIX
H. WRA ACTIVATION H. WRA ACTIVATION

[tireman4]

Collin Myers
@collinmyerswx
The trend in the ECMWF for #Beryl is definitely going in a direction we don’t want. Farther up the Texas coast, and intensifying.

Anxiously awaiting NHC’s 4pm now.

The longer in the #Gulf, the greater the chance for intensification.
However, Beryl may struggle initially after passing over the Yucatán.

#txwx #HurricaneBeryl

[jerryh421]

Anyone have the map for the 12z EPS? Curious to see if they also shifted further east.

[Scott747]

Anyone have the map for the 12z EPS? Curious to see if they also shifted further east.

Don't have the map in front of me but as it has been showing the stronger members are right of the mean (Matagorda) and weaker members to the s. So still a wide spread.

However Beryl already looks to be further e and n than the original initialization.

[Stratton20]

I have a gut feeling this is going to intensify quicker than expected, beryl has managed to keep at least somewhat of a core intact as its about to get over open water, i honestly would not be surprised unfortunately if beryl regains major hurricane status over the next 72-84 hours

[don]

Anyone have the map for the 12z EPS? Curious to see if they also shifted further east.

IMG_0039.png

[AtascocitaWX]

I have a gut feeling this is going to intensify quicker than expected, beryl has managed to keep at least somewhat of a core intact as its about to get over open water, i honestly would not be surprised unfortunately if beryl regains major hurricane status over the next 72-84 hours

I believe this as well.
Euro,ICON and HWRF all have it in the 960 mb range.

[jerryh421]

Anyone have the map for the 12z EPS? Curious to see if they also shifted further east.

IMG_0039.png

Well, this is definitely concerning. Thanks for sharing!

[captainbarbossa19]

Unfortunately, it appears that the ICON model was right about a deeper trough. Models have been trending with a deeper trough and weaker ridge allow the storm to shift more north and east. Also, the ICON 12z model run showed Beryl moving NNW preparing to emerge into the Gulf. Looking at satellite trends, this appears to be what is taking place. If I lived along the coast between Port Lavaca to Galveston, I would prepare for a potential major hurricane. Conditions do look favorable for intensification to me with limited wind shear and dry air. My guess is the system is likely to make landfall somewhere around Freeport.

[don]

EARLY 18Z Tropical Models

IMG_0040.png

[AtascocitaWX]

Icon has been spot on so far. Only model to have Beryl in the gulf at 18z. The Galveston hit may be in play.

[DoctorMu]

Whoa. Huge shift early on with the 12z Euro. And much stronger....

Wow. That's right up the Brazos River all the way to CLL and a right turn toward Madisonville.

[srainhoutx]

Tomer Burg
@burgwx
This afternoon's multi-model ensemble mean again adjusted to the right with a stronger Beryl - and again, Beryl's observed location is already north of the ensemble mean track:

[Rip76]

Say this goes in at Corpus or a little North, when would conditions start to go downhill in the Houston Metro area?

Monday evening?

Just wanted to post this again.