Hurricane Beryl

[AtascocitaWX]

ICON looks like it right as the other models are all shifting north up the TX coast. Now King Euro has a cat 3 . Wow

[Stratton20]

It appeas to me that beryl may be coming off land sooner than even what the ensembles suggested, maybe within the next 4-5 hours or so, it also appears despite weakening, that beryl is maintaining somewhat of a core, its really fighting

[Texashawk]

Things got real in a hurry around here. Hopefully the local Mets get on board soon

[srainhoutx]

Updated Quantitative Precipitation Forecast for the next 5 days.

[Stratton20]

Expect a track shift closer to rockport - matagorda coming at 4

[Cromagnum]

Things got real in a hurry around here. Hopefully the local Mets get on board soon

Likely too busy with holiday weekend Instagram pictures. They'll get back to us on Monday while hungover.

[don]

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[don]

Watches should be going up this afternoon per NHC. Beryl is a tropical storm now also.

[tireman4]

Things got real in a hurry around here. Hopefully the local Mets get on board soon

Likely too busy with holiday weekend Instagram pictures. They'll get back to us on Monday while hungover.

Well Andrew is super busy, but he is here and answers the bat phone in emergencies. Srain is in North Carolina, but he has been coming in and out. Mcheer I am assuming is busy too.

[Rip76]

Say this goes in at Corpus or a little North, when would conditions start to go downhill in the Houston Metro area?

Monday evening?

[tireman4]

Blake Matthews

12z Euro is in. This model shows a potential major hurricane on the central Texas coast. What makes this significant is the Euro was insistent on a Mexico hit when many other models—lesser trusted like the ICON—were showing central and upper Texas coast. Texas, be ready! #beryl

[Scott747]

Watches should be going up this afternoon per NHC. Beryl is a tropical storm now also.

Correct. The NHC said a few hours ago to expect watches and warnings for NE Mexico and the lower and mid Texas coast. I'd guess with the change in guidance with the 12z runs they will adjust to include parts of the upper Texas coast. Probably as far as San Luis Pass and then further n at 10 if there is continued shifts on the 18z runs.

[tireman4]

Kaylan Patel
@WxPatel
With a recent NNW jog from #Beryl in recent frames, it is now tracking well east of the mean track for both the GEFS and EPS ensembles. This would suggest an earlier emergence into the GOM coming as soon as this afternoon.

[Cromagnum]

Down to a 70mph TS for now but will be right back over water soon and still looking pretty good.

[Cromagnum]

Things got real in a hurry around here. Hopefully the local Mets get on board soon

Likely too busy with holiday weekend Instagram pictures. They'll get back to us on Monday while hungover.

Well Andrew is super busy, but he is here and answers the bat phone in emergencies. Srain is in North Carolina, but he has been coming in and out. Mcheer I am assuming is busy too.

Yeah, that probably came out wrong. We do have some good local Mets. That was a dig at the "pretty" ones who are there for clicks on social media.

[srainhoutx]

Kaylan Patel
@WxPatel
With a recent NNW jog from #Beryl in recent frames, it is now tracking well east of the mean track for both the GEFS and EPS ensembles. This would suggest an earlier emergence into the GOM coming as soon as this afternoon.

Beryl should be back offshore in the Gulf around 6 PM judging by satellite imagery.

[tireman4]

With #Beryl looking set to emerge in the Gulf of Mexico farther north than models expected, we are seeing continued northward shifts in the forecast track as well. Today's 24-hour change in the ECMWF is emblematic of that, and illustrates increasing risk farther up the #Texas… pic.twitter.com/HHsdH2X8Ve
-- Dr. Levi Cowan (@TropicalTidbits) July 5, 2024

[Pas_Bon]

We need to find out what the ICON was sniffing out this whole time. Looks like ICON and JMA models will rule with the final solution for Beryl. Big wins for them. Huge L for us in Galveston County and the HOU metro area if verifies

[ajurcat]

Calhoun County Emergency Management has issued a voluntary evacuation for low lying areas as of today a 12 p.m.

[tireman4]

Dr. Levi Cowan
@TropicalTidbits
With #Beryl looking set to emerge in the Gulf of Mexico farther north than models expected, we are seeing continued northward shifts in the forecast track as well. Today's 24-hour change in the ECMWF is emblematic of that, and illustrates increasing risk farther up the #Texas coastline. It would be wise to prepare for a possible hurricane hit anywhere along the Texas gulf coast in case the track shifts and Beryl comes your way.