January 2022

[DoctorMu]

I just looked at channel 13 forecast and they literally have highs in the 50’s Thursday through Sunday with a 0% chance of precipitation on Friday lol

Keep in mind the weekend crews on local TV broadcasts are not the A-team and usually regurgitate yesterday's NOAA or today's accuweather or TWC. Many are paid near poverty-level wages, even in some big market stations.

Tomorrow's going to be a massive day for Models and Mets.

[DoctorMu]

Hedge Funders Paradise on NOAA. One eye raised.


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
558 PM CST Sun Jan 16 2022

.SHORT TERM [Through Monday]...
Cool spectacular night on tap. Weak high pressure with light
winds/calm will prevail overnight beneath clear skies.
Temperatures falling into the 30s areawide inland. Extended the
low water advisory through Monday afternoon.

45
&&

.AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]...
VFR. CLR skies and L/V winds.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 400 PM CST Sun Jan 16 2022/...



.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Sunday]...

Did not make a lot of changes with the long term portion of this
forecast package as models remain in fairly decent agreement for
the strong cold front on Weds...but model consensus also remains
low with the timing/strength of subsequent happenings as we head
into the weekend.

A warming temperature trends for both Tues and Weds (highs rang-
ing in the 70s to near 80) will precede the strong cold front we
are expecting to sweep south through SE TX on Weds afternoon and
evening. Rain chances should be limited with frontal passage for
the northern half of the CWA...with the better chances going to-
wards the coast (where moisture is slightly deeper) but POPs are
going to remain on the low side (20-30%). Temperatures will drop
significantly once again by Weds night and stay below normal for
the rest of the week.

In the wake of this first front and associated mid/upper trough,
the flat almost zonal upper flow developing in its wake late Wed
into Thur is then progged to begin tapping into disturbances em-
bedded in the southern stream jet for the rest of the week (into
the start of next weekend). This is where global models start to
differ with respect to rain chances, potential for wintry precip.
But will keep with the status quo in the grids as the colder air
mass persists over the area as these passing disturbances may or
may not produce SHRA (and/or other stuff) for Fri/Sat. 41


.MARINE...

High pressure centered over northern Mexico/Deep South TX will
continue to bring dry conditions and light northwest winds over our
Gulf waters tonight. Winds will gradually shift to northeast-east
and then south by Monday evening as the high pressure moves to our
east. Moderate onshore flow resumes late Monday night into Tuesday
with building seas (4-6ft) by late Tuesday. This pattern will
continue until the next frontal passage that is expected to move
over the coastal waters Wednesday night into Thursday. Strong
offshore winds and elevated seas will be possible into the weekend.

05

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 33 64 39 73 57 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 36 64 42 73 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 45 61 56 70 64 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

[Kingwood36]

Hedge Funders Paradise on NOAA. One eye raised.


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
558 PM CST Sun Jan 16 2022

.SHORT TERM [Through Monday]...
Cool spectacular night on tap. Weak high pressure with light
winds/calm will prevail overnight beneath clear skies.
Temperatures falling into the 30s areawide inland. Extended the
low water advisory through Monday afternoon.

45
&&

.AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]...
VFR. CLR skies and L/V winds.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 400 PM CST Sun Jan 16 2022/...



.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Sunday]...

Did not make a lot of changes with the long term portion of this
forecast package as models remain in fairly decent agreement for
the strong cold front on Weds...but model consensus also remains
low with the timing/strength of subsequent happenings as we head
into the weekend.

A warming temperature trends for both Tues and Weds (highs rang-
ing in the 70s to near 80) will precede the strong cold front we
are expecting to sweep south through SE TX on Weds afternoon and
evening. Rain chances should be limited with frontal passage for
the northern half of the CWA...with the better chances going to-
wards the coast (where moisture is slightly deeper) but POPs are
going to remain on the low side (20-30%). Temperatures will drop
significantly once again by Weds night and stay below normal for
the rest of the week.

In the wake of this first front and associated mid/upper trough,
the flat almost zonal upper flow developing in its wake late Wed
into Thur is then progged to begin tapping into disturbances em-
bedded in the southern stream jet for the rest of the week (into
the start of next weekend). This is where global models start to
differ with respect to rain chances, potential for wintry precip.
But will keep with the status quo in the grids as the colder air
mass persists over the area as these passing disturbances may or
may not produce SHRA (and/or other stuff) for Fri/Sat. 41


.MARINE...

High pressure centered over northern Mexico/Deep South TX will
continue to bring dry conditions and light northwest winds over our
Gulf waters tonight. Winds will gradually shift to northeast-east
and then south by Monday evening as the high pressure moves to our
east. Moderate onshore flow resumes late Monday night into Tuesday
with building seas (4-6ft) by late Tuesday. This pattern will
continue until the next frontal passage that is expected to move
over the coastal waters Wednesday night into Thursday. Strong
offshore winds and elevated seas will be possible into the weekend.

05

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 33 64 39 73 57 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 36 64 42 73 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 45 61 56 70 64 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

It's a start..atleast they are taking notice of what may or may not happen

[Kingwood36]

GFS starting to go toward its ensemble. 0z op is colder then the previous

[txsnowmaker]

GFS starting to go toward its ensemble. 0z op is colder then the previous

No snow so far, through 12 am Saturday.

[Kingwood36]

Probably more of a sleet freezing rain threat more then snow here if it would happen

[Stratton20]

And the GFS dropped the wintry weather again, i thibk we should just throw the GFS operational model in the trash bin, here is the 00z GEFS, im inclined to more focus on this because it remains consistent, the GFS is really struggling right now

[don]

The 0Z Canadian is showing a winter storm with the first piece of energy similar to the GEFS(the rain that it shows over the metro is actually sleet looking at the soundings).FWIW the 0z GFS now produces some light moisture from the first system.So maybe its a start of a trend towards the ensemble.We'll start to be in range of the mesoscale models starting tomorrow so that will help.

[txsnowmaker]

The 0Z Canadian is showing a winter storm with the first piece of energy similar to the GEFS(the rain that it shows over the metro is actually sleet looking at the soundings).FWIW the 0z GFS now produces some light moisture from the first system.So maybe its a start of a trend towards the ensemble.

Would love to get that 540 line digging further south.

[don]

Almost all of the 0Z GFS ensembles show a winter storm on Thursday/Friday.Similar to the Canadian model.

[Stratton20]

Thats crazy! Man the weekend is going to be very interesting to say the least

[Cpv17]

Almost all of the 0Z GFS ensembles show a winter storm on Thursday/Friday.Similar to the Canadian model.

Well if that’s not quite the signal then idk what is.

[Kingwood36]

Despite what the ensembles say...57 aka the messiah has spoken

"GFS and European overnight model runs have something to say about this week and next week. I'm just the messenger, and this is not necessarily my forecast (yet)"

[Kingwood36]

Despite what the ensembles say...57 aka the messiah has spoken

"GFS and European overnight model runs have something to say about this week and next week. I'm just the messenger, and this is not necessarily my forecast (yet)"

I mean we weren't looking at snow here anyway. Probably more frzing rain and sleet but he just disregards the ensembles and sticks with the ops..

[Stratton20]

The 06z GEFS remains consistent, ive never seen an ensemble so consistent while the operational GFS cant make up its mind, i dont know what to believe

[Kingwood36]

I agree it's been showing this same set up for a while now. Hasn't moved off it..I honestly don't know what's up with the ops. The next 48 hrs should straighten it out one way or the other hopefully

[Stratton20]

Kingwood36 I hope ao because this is a real head scratcher right now

[don]

Were in range of the mesoscale models now, and they look similar to the Canadian.The NAM and RGEM look to be onboard with a winter storm this Thursday.

[Kingwood36]

Were in range of the mesoscale models now, and they look similar to the Canadian.The NAM and RGEM look to be onboard with a winter storm this Thursday.

Then why is wxman57 saying not a snow balls chance in hell

[cperk]

Despite what the ensembles say...57 aka the messiah has spoken

"GFS and European overnight model runs have something to say about this week and next week. I'm just the messenger, and this is not necessarily my forecast (yet)"

I mean we weren't looking at snow here anyway. Probably more frzing rain and sleet but he just disregards the ensembles and sticks with the ops..

You really don't care for him do you.