January 2022

[sambucol]

If this happens, what does the temperature range look
Like for SETX? And any idea the duration? Pipe busting?

[Iceresistance]

If this happens, what does the temperature range look
Like for SETX? And any idea the duration? Pipe busting?

I don't know, it's too far out to be 100% sure.

But there is one thing for sure: A major pattern shakeup is coming by February.

[Iceresistance]

You got to be kidding me:

[don]

If this happens, what does the temperature range look
Like for SETX? And any idea the duration? Pipe busting?

Its early so things will change,but for now if we do have a storm with this kind of setup for us temps should be borderline (mainly in the 30s and upper 20s).And only lasting for a couple of days at the most.As the setup looks to be progressive with only a glancing blow of cold. The setup is not their to get the kind of cold we saw last February not even close.

[Kingwood36]

[txsnowmaker]

You got to be kidding me:

Some thoughts might be helpful to those unfamiliar with that map.

[Cpv17]

Yeah we’re definitely going to need the models to trend a few degrees colder. Doesn’t look like anything but a cold rain for now. Central and north Texas cashes in. Long way to go.

[Cpv17]

You got to be kidding me:

Some thoughts might be helpful to those unfamiliar with that map.

I really don’t know how to read these either and I’ve been a member on here and s2k for several years now and I still don’t know how to read those. Just looks like a bunch of chicken scratch to me lol

[Stratton20]

That graphic looks like someone let their kid draw scribbles

[Iceresistance]

You got to be kidding me:

Some thoughts might be helpful to those unfamiliar with that map.

I really don’t know how to read these either and I’ve been a member on here and s2k for several years now and I still don’t know how to read those. Just looks like a bunch of chicken scratch to me lol

This is the map of what phase the MJO is in (The Track line is how strong it is & it's general location around the Globe)

[Cpv17]

I just looked at channel 13 forecast and they literally have highs in the 50’s Thursday through Sunday with a 0% chance of precipitation on Friday lol

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 what a joke lol, im disregarding that, almost like they just are completely ignoring the models

[Kingwood36]

That's the way tv Mets are. Really conservative untill the utter last minute. They dont want egg on their face. Wich I can see that

[Cpv17]

That's the way tv Mets are. Really conservative untill the utter last minute. They dont want egg on their face. Wich I can see that

Yep! It never fails.

[kyzsl51]

We live in the deep south you just can't forecast wintry precipitation a week in advance...

[Stratton20]

kyzs51 this is only 5 days away and their is a strong signal in the model guidance, they at least should mention it,

[kyzsl51]

kyzs51 this is only 5 days away and their is a strong signal in the model guidance, they at least should mention it,

I get it and I love winter and chances of wintry precipitation...hurricane seaosn and this are my absolute favorites! But I get how hard it its to forecast his type of weather where we live because in reality it just doesn't happen alot here in the deep south. Obviously ice storms are a bit more common than for example snowfall. But its just really tricky from what I've seen watching this board for 15 years lol

[Stratton20]

kyzsl51 oh yeah no doubt its very tricky forecasting a potential winter storm here, but its only 120 hours, i just feel like it ahould be at least mentioned just so the public is aware of “something that could happen”

[Cpv17]

We live in the deep south you just can't forecast wintry precipitation a week in advance...

I agree with this, however I think they’re a tad too conservative. If it’s more than 3 days out on the models and all the model guidance has highs around 35-40°F, they will forecast highs in the low 50’s. Then once it gets inside 3 days they will slowly drop those numbers. I mean I get the conservative approach, I just personally think they go a bit overboard with it.

[DoctorMu]

18z GEFS is basically locked in

Damn you gotta give the GEFS some credit . It has been locked in on this outcome for a while now

GEPS and GEFS were on top of it last Feb as well.