July 2021

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
User avatar
Rip76
Posts: 1949
Joined: Mon Feb 15, 2010 12:38 am
Location: The Woodlands
Contact:

Like Eddie Murphy said, “It’s just sprinkles,” so far today in Fwood.
TexasBreeze
Posts: 972
Joined: Sun Sep 26, 2010 4:46 pm
Location: NW Houston, TX
Contact:

Looks like western Harris may get in on the action looking at radar trends. There are more cells overall too than yesterday.
davidiowx
Posts: 1109
Joined: Thu Jan 23, 2014 2:39 pm
Location: Richmond, TX
Contact:

Latest update from Jeff:

Significant flash flood threat tonight for area near and just northeast of Matagorda Bay (Jackson, Calhoun, Matagorda, and Wharton Counties).

Mid level trough axis has moved little and will move little tonight with favored eastern flank of the axis, strong moisture transport, and low level convergence aimed at the Matagorda Bay region tonight into early Friday. Expect a band of very heavy to excessive rainfall to develop later this evening and train across this area with hourly rainfall rates of 2-4 inches. HREF guidance is very aggressive and shows mean values upwards of 7-10 inches and maximum totals of 10-15 inches in this area tonight.

Given already 5-8 inches of rainfall over this area the last few days…rainfall of this magnitude will generate significant flash flooding and rises above flood stage on creeks and rivers.

Heavy rainfall may expand into portions of Fort Bend, Brazoria and maybe Galveston Counties early Friday, but it remains in question how far inland and east any significant heavy rains may develop or move.

This is a potentially dangerous flash flood threat for this area tonight into early Friday
Cpv17
Posts: 6019
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

davidiowx wrote: Thu Jul 08, 2021 4:18 pm Latest update from Jeff:

Significant flash flood threat tonight for area near and just northeast of Matagorda Bay (Jackson, Calhoun, Matagorda, and Wharton Counties).

Mid level trough axis has moved little and will move little tonight with favored eastern flank of the axis, strong moisture transport, and low level convergence aimed at the Matagorda Bay region tonight into early Friday. Expect a band of very heavy to excessive rainfall to develop later this evening and train across this area with hourly rainfall rates of 2-4 inches. HREF guidance is very aggressive and shows mean values upwards of 7-10 inches and maximum totals of 10-15 inches in this area tonight.

Given already 5-8 inches of rainfall over this area the last few days…rainfall of this magnitude will generate significant flash flooding and rises above flood stage on creeks and rivers.

Heavy rainfall may expand into portions of Fort Bend, Brazoria and maybe Galveston Counties early Friday, but it remains in question how far inland and east any significant heavy rains may develop or move.

This is a potentially dangerous flash flood threat for this area tonight into early Friday
It looks like I’ve been getting dumped on in Wharton County already the past couple hours according to radar. Glad I dumped out my rain gauge this morning before I left to go to work.
BlueJay
Posts: 938
Joined: Tue Mar 04, 2014 10:47 am
Location: Alden Bridge-The Woodlands, Texas
Contact:

We are finally getting some of the rain up here in The Woodlands!
davidiowx
Posts: 1109
Joined: Thu Jan 23, 2014 2:39 pm
Location: Richmond, TX
Contact:

It sure does Cpv17. Looks like I got some good rains as well, my darn wifi on my weather station needs to be reset so I can't see rain totals on my app, but I will see what came down here in an hour or so.


Edit: Looks like 4.5" in El Campo according to one of the Ambient weather stations down there.
User avatar
Rip76
Posts: 1949
Joined: Mon Feb 15, 2010 12:38 am
Location: The Woodlands
Contact:

Getting a bit breezy out here this afternoon as well.
Cpv17
Posts: 6019
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

davidiowx wrote: Thu Jul 08, 2021 5:02 pm It sure does Cpv17. Looks like I got some good rains as well, my darn wifi on my weather station needs to be reset so I can't see rain totals on my app, but I will see what came down here in an hour or so.


Edit: Looks like 4.5" in El Campo according to one of the Ambient weather stations down there.
I just got home and dumped 1.05” out. We haven’t got that much here so far.
Dls2010r
Posts: 175
Joined: Sat Dec 01, 2018 6:21 am
Contact:

Still Nada her in Santa Fe. Just a little pocket. I don’t think Rip76 is getting anything either😂😂.
User avatar
Rip76
Posts: 1949
Joined: Mon Feb 15, 2010 12:38 am
Location: The Woodlands
Contact:

Dls2010r wrote: Thu Jul 08, 2021 6:40 pm Still Nada her in Santa Fe. Just a little pocket. I don’t think Rip76 is getting anything either😂😂.
Dry slotted all day.
Dls2010r
Posts: 175
Joined: Sat Dec 01, 2018 6:21 am
Contact:

Same here. They’ve been taking the rain out of the forecast..
Stratton20
Posts: 4942
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

I think IMO they need to start taking some counties out the FFW, dont think its going to be a big event, the rain now might help to stabilize the atmosphere
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 6494
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

The atmosphere had a very sub-tropical look this afternoon. Having lived in Florida and North Carolina, it was cool to see that kind of air again.

The "Outer bands" arrived not quite an hour ago. Good thing I finished mowing. Remarkable stretch of weather for July in the Brazos Valley...and it goes on and on.

Tonight could be a real nocturnal soaker.
User avatar
don
Posts: 2951
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:33 pm
Location: Wichita Falls
Contact:

Again since yesterday, the "main event" is not suppose to start till overnight.You can see the rain from the gulf closing the gap as we speak.As the storms over Louisiana die, helping to pull the moisture closer to the center.
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 6494
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

don wrote: Thu Jul 08, 2021 1:15 pm12Z Canadian
Yeah. GFS has nearly half a foot. There are bullseyes all along the coast across the models.

The CoC appears to be near Alice, TX on radar and windmap.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 29.29,3512
Dls2010r
Posts: 175
Joined: Sat Dec 01, 2018 6:21 am
Contact:

My 4 acres floods Ill gladly take the no rain. Turns into a big pond with no fish in my back yard.
Stratton20
Posts: 4942
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

Don but wouldnt that light rain over the gulf help to stabilize the atmosphere?
User avatar
Ptarmigan
Statistical Specialist
Statistical Specialist
Posts: 4162
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:20 pm
Contact:

DoctorMu wrote: Thu Jul 08, 2021 7:08 pm The atmosphere had a very sub-tropical look this afternoon. Having lived in Florida and North Carolina, it was cool to see that kind of air again.

The "Outer bands" arrived not quite an hour ago. Good thing I finished mowing. Remarkable stretch of weather for July in the Brazos Valley...and it goes on and on.

Tonight could be a real nocturnal soaker.
Looks like a core rain event. They occur with warm core lows and the thunderstorms tend form near the center at night. Examples of core rain are Harvey, Allison, Claudette, Amelia, and 1921 Thrall Flood.
Dls2010r
Posts: 175
Joined: Sat Dec 01, 2018 6:21 am
Contact:

So that should be further South correct?
User avatar
Rip76
Posts: 1949
Joined: Mon Feb 15, 2010 12:38 am
Location: The Woodlands
Contact:

It appears to definitely be filling in looking at radar.
Post Reply
  • Information
  • Who is online

    Users browsing this forum: Bing [Bot] and 56 guests