July 2021

[Rip76]

Like Eddie Murphy said, “It’s just sprinkles,” so far today in Fwood.

[TexasBreeze]

Looks like western Harris may get in on the action looking at radar trends. There are more cells overall too than yesterday.

[davidiowx]

Latest update from Jeff:

Significant flash flood threat tonight for area near and just northeast of Matagorda Bay (Jackson, Calhoun, Matagorda, and Wharton Counties).

Mid level trough axis has moved little and will move little tonight with favored eastern flank of the axis, strong moisture transport, and low level convergence aimed at the Matagorda Bay region tonight into early Friday. Expect a band of very heavy to excessive rainfall to develop later this evening and train across this area with hourly rainfall rates of 2-4 inches. HREF guidance is very aggressive and shows mean values upwards of 7-10 inches and maximum totals of 10-15 inches in this area tonight.

Given already 5-8 inches of rainfall over this area the last few days…rainfall of this magnitude will generate significant flash flooding and rises above flood stage on creeks and rivers.

Heavy rainfall may expand into portions of Fort Bend, Brazoria and maybe Galveston Counties early Friday, but it remains in question how far inland and east any significant heavy rains may develop or move.

This is a potentially dangerous flash flood threat for this area tonight into early Friday

[Cpv17]

Latest update from Jeff:

Significant flash flood threat tonight for area near and just northeast of Matagorda Bay (Jackson, Calhoun, Matagorda, and Wharton Counties).

Mid level trough axis has moved little and will move little tonight with favored eastern flank of the axis, strong moisture transport, and low level convergence aimed at the Matagorda Bay region tonight into early Friday. Expect a band of very heavy to excessive rainfall to develop later this evening and train across this area with hourly rainfall rates of 2-4 inches. HREF guidance is very aggressive and shows mean values upwards of 7-10 inches and maximum totals of 10-15 inches in this area tonight.

Given already 5-8 inches of rainfall over this area the last few days…rainfall of this magnitude will generate significant flash flooding and rises above flood stage on creeks and rivers.

Heavy rainfall may expand into portions of Fort Bend, Brazoria and maybe Galveston Counties early Friday, but it remains in question how far inland and east any significant heavy rains may develop or move.

This is a potentially dangerous flash flood threat for this area tonight into early Friday

It looks like I’ve been getting dumped on in Wharton County already the past couple hours according to radar. Glad I dumped out my rain gauge this morning before I left to go to work.

[BlueJay]

We are finally getting some of the rain up here in The Woodlands!

[davidiowx]

It sure does Cpv17. Looks like I got some good rains as well, my darn wifi on my weather station needs to be reset so I can't see rain totals on my app, but I will see what came down here in an hour or so.


Edit: Looks like 4.5" in El Campo according to one of the Ambient weather stations down there.

[Rip76]

Getting a bit breezy out here this afternoon as well.

[Cpv17]

It sure does Cpv17. Looks like I got some good rains as well, my darn wifi on my weather station needs to be reset so I can't see rain totals on my app, but I will see what came down here in an hour or so.


Edit: Looks like 4.5" in El Campo according to one of the Ambient weather stations down there.

I just got home and dumped 1.05” out. We haven’t got that much here so far.

[Dls2010r]

Still Nada her in Santa Fe. Just a little pocket. I don’t think Rip76 is getting anything either.

[Rip76]

Still Nada her in Santa Fe. Just a little pocket. I don’t think Rip76 is getting anything either.

Dry slotted all day.

[Dls2010r]

Same here. They’ve been taking the rain out of the forecast..

[Stratton20]

I think IMO they need to start taking some counties out the FFW, dont think its going to be a big event, the rain now might help to stabilize the atmosphere

[DoctorMu]

The atmosphere had a very sub-tropical look this afternoon. Having lived in Florida and North Carolina, it was cool to see that kind of air again.

The "Outer bands" arrived not quite an hour ago. Good thing I finished mowing. Remarkable stretch of weather for July in the Brazos Valley...and it goes on and on.

Tonight could be a real nocturnal soaker.

[don]

Again since yesterday, the "main event" is not suppose to start till overnight.You can see the rain from the gulf closing the gap as we speak.As the storms over Louisiana die, helping to pull the moisture closer to the center.

[DoctorMu]

12Z Canadian

Yeah. GFS has nearly half a foot. There are bullseyes all along the coast across the models.

The CoC appears to be near Alice, TX on radar and windmap.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 29.29,3512

[Dls2010r]

My 4 acres floods Ill gladly take the no rain. Turns into a big pond with no fish in my back yard.

[Stratton20]

Don but wouldnt that light rain over the gulf help to stabilize the atmosphere?

[Ptarmigan]

The atmosphere had a very sub-tropical look this afternoon. Having lived in Florida and North Carolina, it was cool to see that kind of air again.

The "Outer bands" arrived not quite an hour ago. Good thing I finished mowing. Remarkable stretch of weather for July in the Brazos Valley...and it goes on and on.

Tonight could be a real nocturnal soaker.

Looks like a core rain event. They occur with warm core lows and the thunderstorms tend form near the center at night. Examples of core rain are Harvey, Allison, Claudette, Amelia, and 1921 Thrall Flood.

[Dls2010r]

So that should be further South correct?

[Rip76]

It appears to definitely be filling in looking at radar.