Ugh that’s a power outage nightmare for a lot is us! No thank you
February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Warmup Begins
Hi in beaumont was 55. We made barely to 48. Never touched 50s. Like i stated days ago. You can always bet you will be 5 degrees colder than what’s forecasted when it comes to cold air. Monday night they are saying 19 for beaumont. Im prepping for 14.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Funny how a lot of these snow sleet and ice maps now have ALL of SETX buried...except Jefferson county Beaumont. ...figures.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
If you wanted to draw-up a map for a power-outage nightmare across SE Texas, that would be it.
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Kingwood36
- Posts: 1592
- Joined: Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:29 am
- Location: Freeport
- Contact:
All I know is the rain falling now feels pretty danged cold. Yall can keep that freezing rain nonsense up in the north. Snow or nothing.
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LightningBolt
- Posts: 35
- Joined: Mon Jan 15, 2018 7:47 pm
- Location: Central Liberty County
- Contact:
I can't imagine how many downed trees I would have with 3/4 to 1" inch of freezing rain. That would be devastating.
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Texaspirate11
- Posts: 1278
- Joined: Tue Dec 31, 2013 12:24 am
- Contact:
OUR HGX DISCO GETTIN' REAL NOW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
320 PM CST Thu Feb 11 2021
...MAJOR WINTER IMPACTS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS WEEK...
...Sunday night plan on staying where you are with travel being
impacted to severe impacted through Tuesday morning...
.SHORT TERM [Tonight through Friday Afternoon]...
Winter weather advisory for the northwesternmost counties extended
until 10 pm.
Cold front has pushed out well south of the coastal waters and
winds have come up a few knots moreso with gusts - 15 to 20 mph
sustained with wind chills of 29 to 37 were commonplace at 2 pm.
Short wave moving through the Hill Country is producing more
widespread wintery precipitation over the Hill Country and the
eastern edge will impinge on SETX late this afternoon and tonight
as the s/w shifts eastward. More widespread liquid rainfall is
expected across SETX late this afternoon and tonight spreading
east then southeast tonight and tapering off from the northwest.
Areas across Madisonville to Caldwell will continue to have patchy
freezing light drizzle/freezing rain/sleet/rain into mid evening
before it tapers off. The advisory is set to expire at 10 pm but
temperatures at 10 pm may hold at 30-33 degrees there which would
indicate that any icy roads may not improve even though the
precipitation (and Advisory) have ended. Low temperatures
overnight will be a slow slide down to 30-37 north of I-10 and
38-42 south of I-10.
Friday morning the rain should be confined to mainly the 59
corridor southeastward with scattered/numerous showers and
isolated thunderstorms possible well offshore near the 850 front.
But inland in the afternoon it should be just chilly with some
patchy light rain in the upper 30s/lower 40s.
45
.LONG TERM [Friday Night Through Thursday]...
*** OVERVIEW ***
* Surge of Arctic air arrives on Saturday with temperatures
approaching freezing across most of the area by Sunday night.
* First of two disturbances arrives on Saturday, bringing mostly
rain with higher chances of mixed precip north of I-10.
* Second system arrives late Sunday into early Monday. With
colder temperatures in place, widespread wintry precipitation could
impact most of the area during this time.
* Behind the second system, prolonged stretch of below freezing
and potentially historically low temperatures will last well into
next week. Another round of precipitation may arrive by mid-week.
A highly impactful and potentially historic period of prolonged cold
temperatures with multiple episodes of winter precipitation is
expected to impact SE Texas over the next week. With persistent deep
surface high pressure in place over the central CONUS, arctic air
will continue to push into the area as we head into the weekend. By
Saturday, high temperatures are unlikely to break out of the mid-40s
with lows approaching freezing north of the Houston metro. Our first
shot at winter precipitation will arrive on Saturday evening as an
upper shortwave trough pushes through the area. Precipitation type
will be highly dependent on the timing of this feature, though a
period of freezing drizzle/mixed-phase precipitation may occur north
of the Houston metro but elsewhere to the south model soundings
continue to favor a cold rain.
Our main area of focus continues to be the arrival of a second, more
amplified shortwave on late Sunday into early Monday. As this
feature pushes towards SE TX and develops a slight negative tilt,
GFS/EC solutions indicate the formation of an associated coastal low
over the western Gulf of Mexico. PWs will remain in the vicinity of
1-1.25 in as this feature continues to develop, and model soundings
remain well-saturated. With lows on Sunday evening expected to dip
into the 20s to low 30s across the overwhelming majority of the
area, an impactful winter precipitation event is anticipated. While
precipitation type will remain highly dependent on the timing of
this system`s arrival and the exact vertical temperature profiles
present across the area (i.e. the presence and extent of an elevated
warm layer), we are becoming increasingly confident in a widespread
mixed-phase event beginning Sunday night and persisting into Monday.
Global deterministic solutions continue to indicate the possibility
of snow, sleet, and freezing rain impacting portions of the area
during this time. This will make for a particularly hazardous
commute on Monday, particularly for those who travel on elevated
roadways or bridges. Surface streets may become involved as well
given these persistent cold temperatures. Travelers are urged to
pay close attention to the latest forecast as this situation
develops. Over the next few days, timing, amounts, and types of
precipitation will become more refined as higher- resolution
guidance becomes evaluable.
Upon the exit of the second system and subsequent clearing, SE TX
looks to experience its coldest night in many years on Monday
evening. Low temperatures across the Brazos Valley and other
northern zones remain progged to drop into the single digits, while
the Houston metro is expected to reach the low to mid 10s. Along the
barrier islands and coast, temperatures will still remain well below
freezing. Daily records are likely in play for several days at each
of our climate sites. These conditions will be extremely hazardous
to the "4 Ps" - people, pets, plants, and pipes. Consider the
actions you will need to take to ensure the protection of each of
these things. Risk may be further compounded by the possibility of
power outages given the expected winter precipitation earlier in
the day and increased energy demand for the heating of buildings.
Freezing temperatures are expected to last well into the upcoming
week, with lows remaining in the 20s for at least parts of the area
through next Thursday. Another episode of winter precipitation is
possible on Wednesday/early Thursday as a third upper trough pushes
through the area, though the timing of this system and temperature
profile across the area remains highly uncertain across model
solutions.
Now is the perfect time to prepare for this period of hazardous
weather. Be sure to have multiple ways to receive weather
information and continue to monitor the forecast, particularly if
you must travel this weekend and early next week.
Cady
&&
.AVIATION [21Z TAF Update]...
Not many changes to the previous aviation discussion. IFR and LIFR
conditions persist with some improvements to the visibility, but
ceilings remain below 010 across the flying area. Some reports have
given indication of FZRA in the CLL area but nothing has been see on
ASOS, so for now we can deal with that a bit later on. Shortwave
trough in the area has provided enough lift in a few spots to
allow some TSTM development, but these will be the exception and
not the rule today, so most mention of TS has been as VCTS but
showers have been at all terminals. Still looking like conditions
will persist through the forecast period with not much improvement
to flying categories. 35
&&
.MARINE...
Moderate to strong offshore winds in the wake of the cold front
will continue through the weekend. SCA flags for winds near 20
knots with seas of 4-9 feet. High pressure continues to push south
Friday and will help to create a swath of concentrated elevated showers
and thunderstorms between the 850 and 975mb front in a zone of
favorable frontogenesis into early Saturday morning. Potent s/w
rotates through Saturday night which should help to lessen the
coverage of showers but lingering light rain will remain as
moderate to strong isentropic upglide commences Sunday morning
with a coastal low taking shape Sunday evening near Brownsville.
This low tracks northeast and the arctic airmass plunges southward
and into the coastal waters Monday morning. This is likely to the
be coldest airmass to move out over the Upper Texas Coastal Waters
in more than a decade and in fact perhaps since the 80s. Gale
conditions are very likely with sustained winds of 30-35 knots and
gusts of 45 to 50 knots. Bitter cold wind chill readings will
plague the area Monday and Tuesday. Freezing spray on the bays may
even become an issue with air temperatures of 15-23 degrees
howling across the bays Monday night. Wind chill readings of 8 to
20 degrees extending well offshore. The gale force winds should
begin to relent Tuesday with SCA conditions coming to end by late
Tuesday.
Next system will bring back moderate southeast/easterly flow
Wednesday morning.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
320 PM CST Thu Feb 11 2021
...MAJOR WINTER IMPACTS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS WEEK...
...Sunday night plan on staying where you are with travel being
impacted to severe impacted through Tuesday morning...
.SHORT TERM [Tonight through Friday Afternoon]...
Winter weather advisory for the northwesternmost counties extended
until 10 pm.
Cold front has pushed out well south of the coastal waters and
winds have come up a few knots moreso with gusts - 15 to 20 mph
sustained with wind chills of 29 to 37 were commonplace at 2 pm.
Short wave moving through the Hill Country is producing more
widespread wintery precipitation over the Hill Country and the
eastern edge will impinge on SETX late this afternoon and tonight
as the s/w shifts eastward. More widespread liquid rainfall is
expected across SETX late this afternoon and tonight spreading
east then southeast tonight and tapering off from the northwest.
Areas across Madisonville to Caldwell will continue to have patchy
freezing light drizzle/freezing rain/sleet/rain into mid evening
before it tapers off. The advisory is set to expire at 10 pm but
temperatures at 10 pm may hold at 30-33 degrees there which would
indicate that any icy roads may not improve even though the
precipitation (and Advisory) have ended. Low temperatures
overnight will be a slow slide down to 30-37 north of I-10 and
38-42 south of I-10.
Friday morning the rain should be confined to mainly the 59
corridor southeastward with scattered/numerous showers and
isolated thunderstorms possible well offshore near the 850 front.
But inland in the afternoon it should be just chilly with some
patchy light rain in the upper 30s/lower 40s.
45
.LONG TERM [Friday Night Through Thursday]...
*** OVERVIEW ***
* Surge of Arctic air arrives on Saturday with temperatures
approaching freezing across most of the area by Sunday night.
* First of two disturbances arrives on Saturday, bringing mostly
rain with higher chances of mixed precip north of I-10.
* Second system arrives late Sunday into early Monday. With
colder temperatures in place, widespread wintry precipitation could
impact most of the area during this time.
* Behind the second system, prolonged stretch of below freezing
and potentially historically low temperatures will last well into
next week. Another round of precipitation may arrive by mid-week.
A highly impactful and potentially historic period of prolonged cold
temperatures with multiple episodes of winter precipitation is
expected to impact SE Texas over the next week. With persistent deep
surface high pressure in place over the central CONUS, arctic air
will continue to push into the area as we head into the weekend. By
Saturday, high temperatures are unlikely to break out of the mid-40s
with lows approaching freezing north of the Houston metro. Our first
shot at winter precipitation will arrive on Saturday evening as an
upper shortwave trough pushes through the area. Precipitation type
will be highly dependent on the timing of this feature, though a
period of freezing drizzle/mixed-phase precipitation may occur north
of the Houston metro but elsewhere to the south model soundings
continue to favor a cold rain.
Our main area of focus continues to be the arrival of a second, more
amplified shortwave on late Sunday into early Monday. As this
feature pushes towards SE TX and develops a slight negative tilt,
GFS/EC solutions indicate the formation of an associated coastal low
over the western Gulf of Mexico. PWs will remain in the vicinity of
1-1.25 in as this feature continues to develop, and model soundings
remain well-saturated. With lows on Sunday evening expected to dip
into the 20s to low 30s across the overwhelming majority of the
area, an impactful winter precipitation event is anticipated. While
precipitation type will remain highly dependent on the timing of
this system`s arrival and the exact vertical temperature profiles
present across the area (i.e. the presence and extent of an elevated
warm layer), we are becoming increasingly confident in a widespread
mixed-phase event beginning Sunday night and persisting into Monday.
Global deterministic solutions continue to indicate the possibility
of snow, sleet, and freezing rain impacting portions of the area
during this time. This will make for a particularly hazardous
commute on Monday, particularly for those who travel on elevated
roadways or bridges. Surface streets may become involved as well
given these persistent cold temperatures. Travelers are urged to
pay close attention to the latest forecast as this situation
develops. Over the next few days, timing, amounts, and types of
precipitation will become more refined as higher- resolution
guidance becomes evaluable.
Upon the exit of the second system and subsequent clearing, SE TX
looks to experience its coldest night in many years on Monday
evening. Low temperatures across the Brazos Valley and other
northern zones remain progged to drop into the single digits, while
the Houston metro is expected to reach the low to mid 10s. Along the
barrier islands and coast, temperatures will still remain well below
freezing. Daily records are likely in play for several days at each
of our climate sites. These conditions will be extremely hazardous
to the "4 Ps" - people, pets, plants, and pipes. Consider the
actions you will need to take to ensure the protection of each of
these things. Risk may be further compounded by the possibility of
power outages given the expected winter precipitation earlier in
the day and increased energy demand for the heating of buildings.
Freezing temperatures are expected to last well into the upcoming
week, with lows remaining in the 20s for at least parts of the area
through next Thursday. Another episode of winter precipitation is
possible on Wednesday/early Thursday as a third upper trough pushes
through the area, though the timing of this system and temperature
profile across the area remains highly uncertain across model
solutions.
Now is the perfect time to prepare for this period of hazardous
weather. Be sure to have multiple ways to receive weather
information and continue to monitor the forecast, particularly if
you must travel this weekend and early next week.
Cady
&&
.AVIATION [21Z TAF Update]...
Not many changes to the previous aviation discussion. IFR and LIFR
conditions persist with some improvements to the visibility, but
ceilings remain below 010 across the flying area. Some reports have
given indication of FZRA in the CLL area but nothing has been see on
ASOS, so for now we can deal with that a bit later on. Shortwave
trough in the area has provided enough lift in a few spots to
allow some TSTM development, but these will be the exception and
not the rule today, so most mention of TS has been as VCTS but
showers have been at all terminals. Still looking like conditions
will persist through the forecast period with not much improvement
to flying categories. 35
&&
.MARINE...
Moderate to strong offshore winds in the wake of the cold front
will continue through the weekend. SCA flags for winds near 20
knots with seas of 4-9 feet. High pressure continues to push south
Friday and will help to create a swath of concentrated elevated showers
and thunderstorms between the 850 and 975mb front in a zone of
favorable frontogenesis into early Saturday morning. Potent s/w
rotates through Saturday night which should help to lessen the
coverage of showers but lingering light rain will remain as
moderate to strong isentropic upglide commences Sunday morning
with a coastal low taking shape Sunday evening near Brownsville.
This low tracks northeast and the arctic airmass plunges southward
and into the coastal waters Monday morning. This is likely to the
be coldest airmass to move out over the Upper Texas Coastal Waters
in more than a decade and in fact perhaps since the 80s. Gale
conditions are very likely with sustained winds of 30-35 knots and
gusts of 45 to 50 knots. Bitter cold wind chill readings will
plague the area Monday and Tuesday. Freezing spray on the bays may
even become an issue with air temperatures of 15-23 degrees
howling across the bays Monday night. Wind chill readings of 8 to
20 degrees extending well offshore. The gale force winds should
begin to relent Tuesday with SCA conditions coming to end by late
Tuesday.
Next system will bring back moderate southeast/easterly flow
Wednesday morning.
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
-
Katdaddy
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 2517
- Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 8:18 am
- Location: League City, Tx
- Contact:
Memories of 1983 and 1989 are flashing back and this event could be more significant. As much as I dislike the cold weather, I will take this over a CAT 4 or 5 hurricane. Hopefully we get more sleet and snow rather than damaging freezing rain.
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TexasBreeze
- Posts: 1010
- Joined: Sun Sep 26, 2010 4:46 pm
- Location: NW Houston, TX
- Contact:
Haven't seen a discussion with that many bullet points and strong worded headlines since Hurricane Harvey was making its approach.
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MontgomeryCoWx
- Posts: 2617
- Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
- Location: Weimar, TX
- Contact:
Just finished winterizing the home. Radiant barriers, pipe insulation, faucet covers and heavy blankets with heat lamps for the water well.
Chickens will be coming into the garage as I've set up a coop in there and the donkeys have 6 heat lamps under their overhang although they will probably scream at me for letting them stay outside.
Loaded up on Kerosene if we lose power.
Team #NeverSummer
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srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19685
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
Reports coming in of icing on bridges near Brenham.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
I was watching FOX 26 last night and Dr. Jim had a high of 58 for today. Boy did that ever bust badly lol
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Kingwood36
- Posts: 1592
- Joined: Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:29 am
- Location: Freeport
- Contact:
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MontgomeryCoWx
- Posts: 2617
- Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
- Location: Weimar, TX
- Contact:
That never gets old.
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