February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Warmup Begins

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Kingwood36
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18z icon
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Kingwood36 wrote: Thu Feb 11, 2021 3:51 pm18z icon
More snow than the last few runs. Unlike some of the other Globals, ICON does distinguish between ice and snow.
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Cpv17
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Thu Feb 11, 2021 4:01 pm
Kingwood36 wrote: Thu Feb 11, 2021 3:51 pm18z icon
More snow than the last few runs. Unlike some of the other Globals, ICON does distinguish between ice and snow.
It seems like some of the models have trended south a bit today with the snow. Nice to see!
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snowman65
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If yall don't send me snow in the next 8 days I'm leaving the board...LOLOL
Cpv17
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Light freezing rain looks like it needs to be added to the forecast tomorrow for extreme western and northern parts of the viewing area.
txsnowmaker
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Oh boy. Nearly half a foot of snow in the 18z GFS within miles of metro Houston.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... _us_17.png
Kingwood36
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txsnowmaker wrote: Thu Feb 11, 2021 4:24 pm Oh boy. Nearly half a foot of snow in the 18z GFS within miles of metro Houston.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... _us_17.png
Ya..remember that's not all snow either
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snowman65
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txsnowmaker wrote: Thu Feb 11, 2021 4:24 pm Oh boy. Nearly half a foot of snow in the 18z GFS within miles of metro Houston.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... _us_17.png
That total includes sleet.....not just snow.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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txsnowmaker wrote: Thu Feb 11, 2021 4:24 pm Oh boy. Nearly half a foot of snow in the 18z GFS within miles of metro Houston.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... _us_17.png
Here's an up close

Image
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Kingwood36
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Thu Feb 11, 2021 4:37 pm
txsnowmaker wrote: Thu Feb 11, 2021 4:24 pm Oh boy. Nearly half a foot of snow in the 18z GFS within miles of metro Houston.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... _us_17.png
Here's an up close

Image
Good news is it has been going more south each time so there's that
TexasBreeze
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Will likely have to watch for mesoscale banding setting up here and there with the Monday system. Just like the one a month ago that hit central Tx, there will be heavier bursts in the bands with quick accumulation of mainly sleet and some snow too where the thermal profile is colder.
You can see the multiple streaks of pinks in the accumulation map of the GFS.
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snowman65
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Kingwood36 wrote: Thu Feb 11, 2021 4:41 pm
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Thu Feb 11, 2021 4:37 pm
txsnowmaker wrote: Thu Feb 11, 2021 4:24 pm Oh boy. Nearly half a foot of snow in the 18z GFS within miles of metro Houston.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... _us_17.png
Here's an up close

Image
Good news is it has been going more south each time so there's that
If it's sleet and freezing rain don't let it come south...yall keep it up there.
txsnowmaker
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snowman65 wrote: Thu Feb 11, 2021 4:37 pm
txsnowmaker wrote: Thu Feb 11, 2021 4:24 pm Oh boy. Nearly half a foot of snow in the 18z GFS within miles of metro Houston.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... _us_17.png
That total includes sleet.....not just snow.
At least some of it is snow according to NWS, which for the first time has introduced snow into the forecast for SW Houston on Wednesday night as well:

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.p ... CWysmROLDt
txsnowmaker
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Wunderground has about an inch of ice and snow for SW Houston Sunday night and another inch of pure snow on Monday am.

https://www.wunderground.com/hourly/us/ ... 2021-02-14
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jasons2k
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Screen shot from Tuesday afternoon....

I barely touched 40. What's just 25 degrees between friends? ;)
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txsnowmaker
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Just wait until the short range meso models crank up. This is going to be wild!
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MontgomeryCoWx
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jasons2k wrote: Thu Feb 11, 2021 5:10 pm Screen shot from Tuesday afternoon....

I barely touched 40. What's just 25 degrees between friends? ;)
My high was 36... original forecast was 62. Lawdy.
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18Z freezing rain...
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Kingwood36
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Thu Feb 11, 2021 5:20 pm
jasons2k wrote: Thu Feb 11, 2021 5:10 pm Screen shot from Tuesday afternoon....

I barely touched 40. What's just 25 degrees between friends? ;)
My high was 36... original forecast was 62. Lawdy.
High was 50...made it to 46
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DoctorMu
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ICON, Euro, GFS, UKMET, Canadian, NAM all on board with ice/snow from the NW territories down through Houston Mon.
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