August 2020:

[tireman4]

Looking at the Cuba radar (http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif) it looks like the 'center' may be about ~20-30 miles south of where the NHC has the center in the 10pm update. If so, that is quite a bit off. Pretty perplexed with this update and what I see on radar.

GFS rolling soon followed by HWRF/HMON.

Proves they are human. They will have to readjust it. Where is Avila when you need him...lol

[Andrew]

Laura: Anyone think more shifts east will happen overnight (4am)? Surprised of the shift east as well. I even now am getting frustrated. Amateur opinion is I think its still a Texas to lake charles area landfall by recent models except a few. Laura is still south of cuba. Which would make her keeping her strength keeping her inline with the stronger strength models bringing her more west. I think the euro spooked them. I know they do as much as possible to not have the wiper affect on the cone. No clue why shifted east. Although only a nudge. Watch, by morning it will all shift back west.

If the GFS gives into the ECMWF solution yes there will probably be additional shifts east.

[Tx2005]

I’ll just reiterate what I’ve thought the whole time about this situation. I don’t envy the NHC or local officials who have to make decisions about evacuations.

We are just a few days away from a possible major hitting the gulf coast and everybody seems paralyzed.

[txbear]

It’s been said, but wow. That shift seemed to come way out of right field. Especially concerning because I would think that with the biggest convection on the south side of Laura’s center, it would tug the center south over water.

The flip flops are nuts, and I’m not following NHC’s rationale for the shift. Really glad to see srain, Scott747, and our other mets chime in with similar thoughts and observations.

[Ptarmigan]

I’ll just reiterate what I’ve thought the whole time about this situation. I don’t envy the NHC or local officials who have to make decisions about evacuations.

We are just a few days away from a possible major hitting the gulf coast and everybody seems paralyzed.

It is on top of the COVID-19 pandemic.

[tireman4]

As I stated last night and will state again ( as I read The Fords: An American Epic), we have a mystery on our hands, gang

[Andrew]

GFS through 24 hours is still having major issues with how it interacts with Cuba.

[Tx2005]

I’ll just reiterate what I’ve thought the whole time about this situation. I don’t envy the NHC or local officials who have to make decisions about evacuations.

We are just a few days away from a possible major hitting the gulf coast and everybody seems paralyzed.

It is on top of the COVID-19 pandemic.

What an absolute mess.

I’ve been trying to get people I know to pay attention, especially those down in coastal counties and it’s been tough. I do think a lot of people just don’t want to believe that after dealing with covid for so long, now we get hit with this.

While I don’t want anybody to get hit with a major storm, worse case scenario has to be a major hitting the Houston metro directly with only a couple days at best to get however many people (hundreds of thousands...maybe a million) who live in evacuation zip codes out.

[Rip76]

I may back away from the keyboard before I get conspiracy minded.

[Texashawk]

I really want to know what 57 thinks about all this!

[Rip76]

I really want to know what 57 thinks about all this!

Since Katrina. When he doesn’t say much, I get a bit worried.

[Andrew]

GFS further east and weaker.

[Belmer]

If the true center is really south of Cuba (which I'm almost positive it is, radar sure shows it), then the GFS is already too far north with initialization. Though it does initialize pretty much where the NHC has it at.

00z GFS makes landfall in far SW Louisiana, weaker and more eastward than 18z.

[Andrew]

GFS looks around Lake Charles

[Texaspirate11]

I really see LA getting hit from the TxLa and LaMs side - its a squeeze play

[bdog38]

funny, Harvey was a weak *** depression (also Allison) 2 of the most destructive storms ever in houston. always keep an eye to the sky.

[HurricaneMike]

GFS has shifted Northeast a bit.

[Belmer]

GSF and Euro are weaker due to more land interaction over Cuba, thus more eastward as what has been pretty much discussed. With Laura being potentially off the southern coast and if it remains west or even wnw south of the coast, I would not put it past me to see Laura on the cusp of becoming a hurricane tomorrow as long as it can avoid land. Its presentation already looks healthy on satellite being where it is between Haiti and Cuba.
Euro ensembles have been consistent with a stronger Laura more westerly component it goes due it riding around the ridge.

Lets see if HWRF/HMON pick up on its location..

[sambucol]

Did the gfs initialize too far north on this run?

[djmike]

funny, Harvey was a weak *** depression (also Allison) 2 of the most destructive storms ever in houston. always keep an eye to the sky.

Nice reminder. So true. Thank you.