August 2020:

[Tx2005]

I’m assuming the Euro has something to do with it?

I saw a blog post linked on storm2k that seemed to explain why the Euro track doesn’t seem likely unless Laura shifts north.

[tireman4]

Quite surprised with the sudden shift eastward from the NHC. I think between finding out where Laura's center may redevelop and how it transverses over Cuba would hold them off on making any big changes. While good news for Houston being out of the cone, I also worry the public will start writing this storm off as not a threat. If models adjust west again the public will start to ignore this storm with being in and out of the cone with not only from Marco this weekend, but now Laura as well.

You are totally spot on. We are so not even close to being out of the woods. I worry, too as you do, the public will say whew, dodged a bullet.

[Ptarmigan]

NAM has winds of of 230 mph at 5,000 feet or 850 millibars. That is 210 mph at the surface.
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1297725054889975810

[Ptarmigan]

Quite surprised with the sudden shift eastward from the NHC. I think between finding out where Laura's center may redevelop and how it transverses over Cuba would hold them off on making any big changes. While good news for Houston being out of the cone, I also worry the public will start writing this storm off as not a threat. If models adjust west again the public will start to ignore this storm with being in and out of the cone with not only from Marco this weekend, but now Laura as well.

You are totally spot on. We are so not even close to being out of the woods. I worry, too as you do, the public will say whew, dodged a bullet.

I consider the forecast low confidence.

[jasons2k]

Pretty crazy they shifted so far east.

Maybe those two runs of the euro spooked them,I didn’t expect any adjustments to the forecast track but cangelosi said that even though not explicitly forecast Laura could impact the northwestern gulf as a major hurricane read in to it what you may.

Yep, I read that in the discussion and is one reason why I am surprised by not only the shift, but also the shape of the cone. I would think after Day 3 the cone would have a bulge on its SW side to include the Houston area - at least not now until we get the center/Cuba situation resolved - which will be soon.

With the storm consistently tracking on the SW side of the guidance, I just question the east shift at this point. I would have waited for more compelling evidence. As some have said - I also worry this could cause folks to become complacent.

[Tx2005]

Quite surprised with the sudden shift eastward from the NHC. I think between finding out where Laura's center may redevelop and how it transverses over Cuba would hold them off on making any big changes. While good news for Houston being out of the cone, I also worry the public will start writing this storm off as not a threat. If models adjust west again the public will start to ignore this storm with being in and out of the cone with not only from Marco this weekend, but now Laura as well.

I think there is ton of confusion with the public on what’s going on. Lots of people still think the threat is over because Marco went east. Just tonight I had to tell a couple different family members in the area that Laura is a real threat.

Having two storms with the threats crossing over I think has already caused problems. Now you add in the constantly shifting cone and I can imagine lots of Houston folks assuming the threat is over again.

It’s going to be complete chaos if Houston is back in the bullseye tomorrow and they have to issue evac orders Monday or Tuesday.

[Ace]

Looks the the center is definitely looking like it’s reforming S of Cuba heading for open water. I don’t think the Eastern solutions will hold.

[jasons2k]

https://blog.weather.us/making-sense-of ... orm-laura/

[snowman65]

We are leaving in the morning regardless...too much uncertainty to hang around. Going to Lake Travis with in laws. Since I have no control over what happens, I'll just watch from afar.....and go from there.

[Belmer]

Looking at the Cuba radar (http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif) it looks like the 'center' may be about ~20-30 miles south of where the NHC has the center in the 10pm update. If so, that is quite a bit off. Pretty perplexed with this update and what I see on radar.

GFS rolling soon followed by HWRF/HMON.

[sambucol]

Laura:
Will there be another shift west In the models tonight?

[Rip76]

We are leaving in the morning regardless...too much uncertainty to hang around. Going to Lake Travis with in laws. Since I have no control over what happens, I'll just watch from afar.....and go from there.

The right idea

[Scott747]

It's the ICON so tread carefully....

It has a sizable shift to the w.

[Ptarmigan]

I think they should issue a Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watch for all of the Gulf of Mexico. I am not really to fond of the cone of uncertainty.

[srainhoutx]

Radar clearly shows the center of Laura well S and well W of the NHC official forecast point. I believe Laura has remained offshore of Cuba since it existed Haiti and may well remain S of the Southern Cuba Coast throughout the night. I'm typically not one to second guess the NHC forecasters, but seeing these wild swings in track guidance only to have to revert back the past 24 hours is a head scratcher.

[DoctorMu]

Looking at the Cuba radar (http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif) it looks like the 'center' may be about ~20-30 miles south of where the NHC has the center in the 10pm update. If so, that is quite a bit off. Pretty perplexed with this update and what I see on radar.

GFS rolling soon followed by HWRF/HMON.

I see it the same way - she's been heading due west for hours.

I'm shocked that NHC didn't wait until morning to adjust the forecast cone...and partially caved to the Euro.

Could this be any more 2020?

[Tx2005]

Assuming the center really is south of the current spot via the NHC forecast, will they update that prior to the 1 am update?

[djmike]

Laura: Anyone think more shifts east will happen overnight (4am)? Surprised of the shift east as well. I even now am getting frustrated. Amateur opinion is I think its still a Texas to lake charles area landfall by recent models except a few. Laura is still south of cuba. Which would make her keeping her strength keeping her inline with the stronger strength models bringing her more west. I think the euro spooked them. I know they do as much as possible to not have the wiper affect on the cone. No clue why shifted east. Although only a nudge. Watch, by morning it will all shift back west.

[DoctorMu]

Radar clearly shows the center of Laura well S and well W of the NHC official forecast point. I believe Laura has remained offshore of Cuba since it existed Haiti and may well remain S of the Southern Cuba Coast throughout the night. I'm typically not one to second guess the NHC forecasters, but seeing these wild swings in track guidance only to have to revert back the past 24 hours is a head scratcher.

Laura has been easing between Cuba and Jamaica. I've never seen so much of a struggle with initial conditions for the models.

[DoctorMu]

Laura: Anyone think more shifts east will happen overnight (4am)? Surprised of the shift east as well. I even now am getting frustrated. Amateur opinion is I think its still a Texas to lake charles area landfall by recent models except a few. Laura is still south of cuba. Which would make her keeping her strength keeping her inline with the stronger strength models bringing her more west. I think the euro spooked them. I know they do as much as possible to not have the wiper affect on the cone. No clue why shifted east. Although only a nudge. Watch, by morning it will all shift back west.

I'm definitely not taking that bet!

So, today ends as perplexing as yesterday.