INVEST 95L GOM Back to Code yellow but who really knows

[Hardcoreweather]

We now have Invest 95L and it's expected to track west along the gulfcoast

[Hardcoreweather]

Model runs

http://i508.photobucket.com/albums/s330 ... bd937b.jpg

[srainhoutx]

Appears shear is too strong for development with 95L. Guests from FL are driving to Houston and currently on I-10 near Tallahassee reporting tropical mist. Have a great 4th of July folks.

[Hardcoreweather]

Radar shot and frontal location

http://i508.photobucket.com/albums/s330 ... 3142fb.png

[srainhoutx]

NOUS42 KNHC 021400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT FRI 02 JULY 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 03/1100Z TO 04/1100Z JULY 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-032

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF COAST)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 03/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 03/1700Z
D. 28.5N 86.5W
E. 03/1730Z TO 03/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71
A. 04/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0202A CYCLONE
C. 04/0445Z
D. 28.0N 87.0W
E. 04/0515Z TO 04/0930Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES
AT 04/1800Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

[Hardcoreweather]

Might be a good intercept if I chase it by boat If it does form into something I will do my best to provide live streaming video from my dash cam like I do with severe weather

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUL 2 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL
ZONE...CONTINUES OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR WEST
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE
SLOW TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA

[Hardcoreweather]

Latest model runs from the Hardcoreweather

http://i508.photobucket.com/albums/s330 ... 8e1f93.jpg

[wxman57]

Don't need a radar (looks well above surface) or a satellite estimate of wind to find the weak swirl, plenty of obs offshore. Looks like about a 1016mb low in a high-shear and quite hostile environment. I'm still not concerned about this feature, it's just something to keep offshore conditions rough in the clean-up area and produce rain along the mid Gulf Coast this weekend.

[Hardcoreweather]

Not much model support

http://i508.photobucket.com/albums/s330 ... adf080.jpg

[wxman57]

There does appear to be a weak circulation from obs offshore now. But winds around this small vortex are only 10 kts today (15 kts yesterday). Pressure 1012mb. Near 27.3N/87.7W. Development chances close to zero:

[Hardcoreweather]

New model runs

http://i508.photobucket.com/albums/s330 ... b8d460.jpg

[Hardcoreweather]

Recon is on for today 1pm central time

[Hardcoreweather]

[srainhoutx]

000
NOUS42 KNHC 031430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT SAT 03 JULY 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z JULY 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-033

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NORTHERN GULF)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 04/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 04/1700Z
D. 28.0N 90.5W
E. 04/1730Z TO 04/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 05/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0202A CYCLONE
C. 05/0445Z
D. 28.5N 91.0W
E. 05/0515Z TO 05/0930Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES
AT 05/1800Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARK: TASKING FOR 03/1800Z AND 04/0600Z
CANCELED BY NHC AT 03/1200Z.

[redfish1]

may want to keep a close eye on this one....starting to build more convection

[Hardcoreweather]

20% now

00
ABNT20 KNHC 031738
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUL 3 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE HAVE INCREASED A LITTLE TODAY. THE LOW IS LOCATED
ABOUT 165 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK.
ALTHOUGH STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY INHIBITING
DEVELOPMENT...A SMALL RELAXATION OF THESE WINDS COULD RESULT IN
BETTER ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA

[redfish1]

in my opinion i think this system bears watching

[wink1968]

Has the chances of development stayed at the 20% for the next 48 hours?

[Hardcoreweather]

Has the chances of development stayed at the 20% for the next 48 hours?

down to 10%