We now have Invest 95L and it's expected to track west along the gulfcoast
INVEST 95L GOM Back to Code yellow but who really knows
Last edited by Hardcoreweather on Mon Jul 05, 2010 7:11 pm, edited 5 times in total.
- srainhoutx
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Appears shear is too strong for development with 95L. Guests from FL are driving to Houston and currently on I-10 near Tallahassee reporting tropical mist. Have a great 4th of July folks.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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- srainhoutx
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NOUS42 KNHC 021400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT FRI 02 JULY 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 03/1100Z TO 04/1100Z JULY 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-032
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF COAST)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 03/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 03/1700Z
D. 28.5N 86.5W
E. 03/1730Z TO 03/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71
A. 04/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0202A CYCLONE
C. 04/0445Z
D. 28.0N 87.0W
E. 04/0515Z TO 04/0930Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES
AT 04/1800Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT FRI 02 JULY 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 03/1100Z TO 04/1100Z JULY 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-032
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF COAST)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 03/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 03/1700Z
D. 28.5N 86.5W
E. 03/1730Z TO 03/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71
A. 04/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0202A CYCLONE
C. 04/0445Z
D. 28.0N 87.0W
E. 04/0515Z TO 04/0930Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES
AT 04/1800Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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Might be a good intercept if I chase it by boat If it does form into something I will do my best to provide live streaming video from my dash cam like I do with severe weather
- srainhoutx
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUL 2 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL
ZONE...CONTINUES OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR WEST
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE
SLOW TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUL 2 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL
ZONE...CONTINUES OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR WEST
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE
SLOW TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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- wxman57
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- Location: Southwest Houston (Westbury)
- Contact:
Don't need a radar (looks well above surface) or a satellite estimate of wind to find the weak swirl, plenty of obs offshore. Looks like about a 1016mb low in a high-shear and quite hostile environment. I'm still not concerned about this feature, it's just something to keep offshore conditions rough in the clean-up area and produce rain along the mid Gulf Coast this weekend.
- wxman57
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- Contact:
There does appear to be a weak circulation from obs offshore now. But winds around this small vortex are only 10 kts today (15 kts yesterday). Pressure 1012mb. Near 27.3N/87.7W. Development chances close to zero:
- srainhoutx
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000
NOUS42 KNHC 031430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT SAT 03 JULY 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z JULY 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-033
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NORTHERN GULF)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 04/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 04/1700Z
D. 28.0N 90.5W
E. 04/1730Z TO 04/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 05/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0202A CYCLONE
C. 05/0445Z
D. 28.5N 91.0W
E. 05/0515Z TO 05/0930Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES
AT 05/1800Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARK: TASKING FOR 03/1800Z AND 04/0600Z
CANCELED BY NHC AT 03/1200Z.
NOUS42 KNHC 031430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT SAT 03 JULY 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z JULY 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-033
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NORTHERN GULF)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 04/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 04/1700Z
D. 28.0N 90.5W
E. 04/1730Z TO 04/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 05/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0202A CYCLONE
C. 05/0445Z
D. 28.5N 91.0W
E. 05/0515Z TO 05/0930Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES
AT 05/1800Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARK: TASKING FOR 03/1800Z AND 04/0600Z
CANCELED BY NHC AT 03/1200Z.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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may want to keep a close eye on this one....starting to build more convection
20% now
00
ABNT20 KNHC 031738
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUL 3 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE HAVE INCREASED A LITTLE TODAY. THE LOW IS LOCATED
ABOUT 165 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK.
ALTHOUGH STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY INHIBITING
DEVELOPMENT...A SMALL RELAXATION OF THESE WINDS COULD RESULT IN
BETTER ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA
in my opinion i think this system bears watching
Has the chances of development stayed at the 20% for the next 48 hours?
down to 10%wink1968 wrote:Has the chances of development stayed at the 20% for the next 48 hours?