July 2019: Warming Trend/Slight Chances For Rain

[davidiowx]

Soo weaker and further east.. but just a day or two ago the mindset was along the lines of a weaker storm will move further west because it won’t be affected by the trough as much.. what’s changed today?

[redneckweather]

Off topic but nice little homegrown thunderstorm over near the west side of downtown. Can clearly see a lightning show from Rosharon.

That's actually forming on the outer circulation from the system in the gulf.

[Kingwood36]

So im assuming they are pretty confident its going to LA.Well atleast i have 4 cases of water for the next time something threatens..goodnight

[Andrew]

Soo weaker and further east.. but just a day or two ago the mindset was along the lines of a weaker storm will move further west because it won’t be affected by the trough as much.. what’s changed today?

They still have it as a hurricane. Weaker would be a TS/TD. Only reason they have it slightly weaker is due to less time over water.

[Andrew]

I was checking out the NAM and it does show a sharper trough extending from the Northeast U.S. into Texas. Could be the first sign that models that were pointing west were too weak with the trough and too aggressive with ridging.

[davidiowx]

Soo weaker and further east.. but just a day or two ago the mindset was along the lines of a weaker storm will move further west because it won’t be affected by the trough as much.. what’s changed today?

They still have it as a hurricane. Weaker would be a TS/TD. Only reason they have it slightly weaker is due to less time over water.

Ah that makes sense. Well it appears they are getting more confident on the track so that’s a good thing for us. I trust they know what they are doing!

I’m getting some nice lightning and a t’shower right now. Perfect weather to relax and get some rest

[djmike]

Seriously thought a shift westward. Dont see the 90 degree turn North happening. It would have to start now. The storm was and is still moving SW and what we thought was a center forming was also south than originally thought. But they know more than i do. So it is what it is. Still think a shift west is possible tomorrow. Will be praying for LA for all affected.

[Andrew]

Soo weaker and further east.. but just a day or two ago the mindset was along the lines of a weaker storm will move further west because it won’t be affected by the trough as much.. what’s changed today?

They still have it as a hurricane. Weaker would be a TS/TD. Only reason they have it slightly weaker is due to less time over water.

Ah that makes sense. Well it appears they are getting more confident on the track so that’s a good thing for us. I trust they know what they are doing!

I’m getting some nice lightning and a t’shower right now. Perfect weather to relax and get some rest

Get some rest, models overnight will hopefully provide additional confidence.

[tireman4]

Good night you all

[Rip76]

So, those storms coming down from Dallas.

[Kingwood36]

So, those storms coming down from Dallas.

Go to bed bro lol jk

[unome]

there's some lightning & thunder in our area as well

http://map.blitzortung.org/#7.82/30.157/-95.158

[Andrew]

GFS tracking further east. Seeing a stronger trough overall and little movement from PTC2 over the next 24 hours.

Edit: Trough seems to flatten out pretty quickly. Weird run because it seems to just stall it.

[unome]

smells like grass fire outside though

[Andrew]

Pretty large east swing with the GFS. Shows little movement with the system overall for the next couple of days.

[djjordan]

Pretty neat lightning show off to the north with a line of storms pushing south towards the Montgomery County area.

[Andrew]

CMC Is slower/much further east too. Much more in line with the GFS. Last two models to go are the UKMET and ECMWF

[Andrew]

UKMET went east between Port Arthur and Bolivar

[Cromagnum]

Hoping for at least a round of rain tomorrow otherwise it's sprinkler time. Throwing in the towel on much about this storm affecting Texas in any way.

[DoctorMu]

So, those storms coming down from Dallas.

The straight line winds are impressive - battering a weak part of our back fence. Hope that's not an outflow from dying storms, and it's mostly a bust.

This is our best chance of rain, given the eastward drift of the models. Euro 00z looking weaker and east-er so far