July 2019: Warming Trend/Slight Chances For Rain

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tireman4
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July 2019: Warming Trend/Slight Chances For Rain

Post by tireman4 » Fri Jun 21, 2019 9:20 am

:)

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Re: July 2019

Post by BlueJay » Fri Jun 21, 2019 9:40 am

tireman4 wrote:
Fri Jun 21, 2019 9:20 am
:)
Nicely said, tireman!

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Re: July 2019: 4th Of July Outlook

Post by tireman4 » Mon Jun 24, 2019 7:13 am

Well, you know..LOL

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Re: July 2019: 4th Of July Outlook

Post by srainhoutx » Mon Jun 24, 2019 2:57 pm

Taking a look ahead to the 4th of July Holiday Weather, there are indications that a surge of deep tropical air will arrive early next week into the Western Gulf. Some of the individual ensemble members attempt to spin up some sort of tropical mischief, but the best bet this far out is daily chances of showers and thunderstorms for our Region with a weakness between a Ridge to our West and a weak Ridge to the SE over Florida. The afternoon Updated Day 8 to 14 Outlook is suggesting such a potential. We will see how things develop into the weekend.
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Re: July 2019: 4th Of July Outlook

Post by srainhoutx » Tue Jun 25, 2019 8:21 pm

The afternoon Updated Day 6 to 10 Outlook that takes us just beyond the 4th of July continues to advertise a wet and unsettled pattern. Those making plans for outdoor activities might want to follow our future sensible weather updates over the next week.
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Re: July 2019: 4th Of July Outlook/Daytime Showers/Storms

Post by srainhoutx » Sun Jun 30, 2019 8:19 am

A tropical wave axis is near the Yucatan Peninsula this morning as it moves WNW. Tropical showers and some storms are active this morning in the NW Caribbean Sea, but no tropical development is expected. This surge of deeper tropical moisture will continue to migrate toward the Texas Coast today and tomorrow with deeper moisture moving inland late Monday night through at least Thursday morning. Rain chances look to increase early Tuesday morning and continue into Wednesday. The 4th of July Outlook suggests scattered showers and storms may be possible during the day on Thursday and decreasing in areal coverage Thursday evening in time for the big 4th of July Fireworks!
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06302019 14Z Gulf Surface Chart GULF_latest.gif
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Re: July 2019: 4th Of July Outlook/Daytime Showers/Storms

Post by DoctorMu » Sun Jun 30, 2019 10:49 am

After the wave and July 4 holiday, we look high and dry in July on NWS, GFS, CMC, Ensemble until a potential backdoor front in mid July.

Get ready for reality after this week.

Hope for more liquid gold with the wave between July 4th fireworks.

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Re: July 2019: 4th Of July Outlook/Daytime Showers/Storms

Post by srainhoutx » Sun Jun 30, 2019 2:11 pm

I do not see the rain chances completely disappearing throughout the first week of July for our Region. The Bermuda/SE Ridge is not overly strong and with an onshore flow continuing into late next week, I believe we will have at least an isolated shot of heat of the day seabreeze showers/storms into next weekend. Beyond that, the MJO may come into play across the Western Atlantic Basin and the Gulf as mid/late July comes around.
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06302019 CCKW twc_mjoCCKW_vp200.png
06302019 MJO NCEP diagram_40days_forecast_GEFS_member.gif
06302019 ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif
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Re: July 2019: 4th Of July Outlook/Daytime Showers/Storms

Post by unome » Sun Jun 30, 2019 3:28 pm

good to hear !

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Re: July 2019: 4th Of July Outlook/Daytime Showers/Storms

Post by Katdaddy » Mon Jul 01, 2019 4:47 am

Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms will develop across portions of SE TX. A surge of tropical moisture still set to arrive Tuesday and Wednesday with some locally heavy rain. This surge of moisture still looks to move out of SE TX in time for the 4th of July fireworks but could still see scattered afternoon showers and a few thunderstorms through the upcoming weekend.

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