July 2019: Warming Trend/Slight Chances For Rain

[Scott747]

First hurricane model (HMON) initialized correctly according to where the current center is estimated which places it further s than how the 12z was initialized. Something to follow if it has any impacts on track.

[Scott747]

Much like the previous runs it's already bouncing around with no definitive center to resolve.

[Kingwood36]

So pretty much more of the same

[tireman4]

And watching continues

[Texaspirate11]

Evacuation orders for parts of Louisiana

[djmike]

I know anythings possible, but do you guys feel the models will jump back west again overnight? Seems like the models enjoy the western sunset and eastern sunrise!

[Kingwood36]

So do we think any watches or warnings are coming this way?

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Consor has a great point regarding the major models under doing the ridge in their previous runs. He backed it up with some data.

I still think this goes West of the NHC track by 60-120 miles.

[djmike]

So do we think any watches or warnings are coming this way?

JMO...I think we will eventually see a watch for Jefferson county. West of that, prob not as things currently stand. As ive been saying, crazier things have happened... sticking to my guns and saying LC area.

[Andrew]

00z model runs will be important because a lot of upper-level data and recon data will be ingested into the models. Hopefully, that will give better confidence in where this is going. As for what is going on now, storms are firing just west of a possible center but the system still remains rather disorganized. Going into the overnight hours you may see an official classification if storms can continue. Overall, there are still a lot of questions to answer with time running out. I would suggest having the basic supplies ready just in case.

[tireman4]

Andrew, first thanks to you snd Steve for your inputs. We appreciate your time. Second, as a layman here, yes..I agree with Andrew, have your kits stocked and ready. This is an ever changing situation. Models are still getting data ingested into them. Be prepared. Be patient. Stay vigilant

[jasons2k]

Barry-to-be is still a mess, but the circulation is consolidating now. The thing that concerns me on satellite imagery is the outflow presentation. When this thing stacks, it's going to bomb. There is a chance this bomb could result in a leftward tug with the steering flow that is setup.

The models tonight are going to be very important, but still watch for the left hook at the end, if it bombs...

[Katdaddy]

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two is looking a little more organized this evening. In recent years the NHC has started Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories for a developing tropical cyclones to give the public more advanced warning and awareness which is well needed for development close to shore with a short time to prepare.

Still many unknowns with strength of the high pressure ridge across the SE US vs the trough across the Ohio Valley during the next several days. A stronger pressure ridge across the Deep South, the more W this system could move toward the Middle and Upper TX Coast. A stronger trough the N and NE will result and a turn to the NW and N across LA. The current NHC forecast track as of 4PM was a little more E than this morning across SW LA.

An except from this afternoons National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX Area Forecast Discussion:

- NHC now issuing forecast advisories on potential tropical
cyclone 2 with a track towards Louisiana.

- Forecast track of tropical system still uncertain as will be the
intensity forecast.

- People of SE Texas and Houston still need to keep close watch of
the forecast for this system and for potential impacts.

This is a simple summary with current concerns and why we should remain tropical weather aware and have a plan ready if needed.

[Kingwood36]

Been atching weatherman57 on stk and he seems pretty confident this isnt coming towards tx

[tireman4]

Do you mean Wxman 57? I swear he was thinking Tx/LA line..but I could be wrong..he will correct me..lol

[Kingwood36]

Do you mean Wxman 57? I swear he was thinking Tx/LA line..but I could be wrong..he will correct me..lol

Ya thats him..lol maybe im wrong but i seem to recall him saying this isnt a tx storm...could be wrong tho

[tireman4]

I know and he is on here too..he has been in favor of tge UKMET ..on S2K

[mcheer23]

I believe this is now a TD. Should have Barry by tomorrow morning

[Kingwood36]

I know and he is on here too..he has been in favor of tge UKMET ..on S2K

Well i guess im wrong then lol

[Cromagnum]

Yeah, I'm not buying the sudden 90 degree turn to the north based on everything I've seen.