July 2019: Warming Trend/Slight Chances For Rain

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srainhoutx
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NOAA P-3 about to start an omega pattern as the AF 53rd C-130 finishes up. A lot of good data coming for the 00Z suite of guidance,
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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srainhoutx
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dbrooks77346 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 10, 2019 4:51 pm
srainhoutx wrote: ↑Wed Jul 10, 2019 4:39 pm
dbrooks77346 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 10, 2019 4:36 pm So we are pretty confident that this is a LA Storm ? Or are we waiting until the COC is formed?
WE are not confident any final solution at this time. COC or not, these close in home grown tropical cyclones have a history of throwing a lot of curveballs right up to landfall and beyond... ;)
Understood. Trying to advised some co-workers that things can flip again.
My phone has blown up all day. I personally advised my family/neighbors and circle of friends/associates starting on Monday to pay close attention to the weather updates.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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djmike
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Oh we could wake up to a track into texas still. All cards are still on the table. Many many times i have woken up to some big surprises.
Mike
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mcheer23
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djmike wrote: ↑Wed Jul 10, 2019 4:56 pm Oh we could wake up to a track into texas still. All cards are still on the table. Many many times i have woken up to some big surprises.
Claudette 2003, Debby 2012 ones that had forecast changes.
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sau27
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18z GFS is starting to come in. Through 24 hours tough looks pretty strong. My guess is this run ends up where the others have Central Louisiana or east of there.
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snowman65
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djmike wrote: ↑Wed Jul 10, 2019 4:56 pm Oh we could wake up to a track into texas still. All cards are still on the table. Many many times i have woken up to some big surprises.
humberto 2007 comes to mind
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Rip76
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https://mobile.twitter.com/yconsor/stat ... 5817556993

Interesting
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Jim Cantore just spotted in Winnie, Tx.
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djmike
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Rip76 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 10, 2019 5:02 pm https://mobile.twitter.com/yconsor/stat ... 5817556993

Interesting
Who is yaakov? Is he reliable? Thats an odd statement but plausible I guess.
Mike
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Scott747
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18z is a little further w an s. Turn should be soon if it's like previous runs.
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djmike wrote: ↑Wed Jul 10, 2019 5:08 pm
Rip76 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 10, 2019 5:02 pm https://mobile.twitter.com/yconsor/stat ... 5817556993

Interesting
Who is yaakov? Is he reliable? Thats an odd statement but plausible I guess.
Hes a real meteorologist has a large following on Twitter
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sau27
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Scott747 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 10, 2019 5:11 pm 18z is a little further w an s. Turn should be soon if it's like previous runs.
Hour 66 SLAMS on the brakes
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djmike wrote: ↑Wed Jul 10, 2019 5:08 pm
Rip76 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 10, 2019 5:02 pm https://mobile.twitter.com/yconsor/stat ... 5817556993

Interesting
Who is yaakov? Is he reliable? Thats an odd statement but plausible I guess.
Yes. He is very respected met on a different site.
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djmike
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snowman65 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 10, 2019 5:01 pm
djmike wrote: ↑Wed Jul 10, 2019 4:56 pm Oh we could wake up to a track into texas still. All cards are still on the table. Many many times i have woken up to some big surprises.
humberto 2007 comes to mind
Exactly! Not saying it will happen, but again, I have woken up to big surprises when going to bed NHC was confident on their track and statements. I still stick to my guess of LC area. Local mets here in Beaumont have privately voiced that this will also be a more western storm. Its anyones guess now. Key points will be the COC and ridge. When is the the next euro run??
Mike
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djmike
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Scott747 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 10, 2019 5:13 pm
djmike wrote: ↑Wed Jul 10, 2019 5:08 pm
Rip76 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 10, 2019 5:02 pm https://mobile.twitter.com/yconsor/stat ... 5817556993

Interesting
Who is yaakov? Is he reliable? Thats an odd statement but plausible I guess.
Yes. He is very respected met on a different site.
Ah ok. Guess ive never heard of him. Thanks!
Mike
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cperk
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djmike wrote: ↑Wed Jul 10, 2019 5:08 pm
Rip76 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 10, 2019 5:02 pm https://mobile.twitter.com/yconsor/stat ... 5817556993

Interesting
Who is yaakov? Is he reliable? Thats an odd statement but plausible I guess.
He's an American born meteorologist.
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srainhoutx
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djmike wrote: ↑Wed Jul 10, 2019 5:16 pm
Scott747 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 10, 2019 5:13 pm
djmike wrote: ↑Wed Jul 10, 2019 5:08 pm

Who is yaakov? Is he reliable? Thats an odd statement but plausible I guess.
Yes. He is very respected met on a different site.
Ah ok. Guess ive never heard of him. Thanks!
jconsor on S2k. He is based out of Israel and a very good meteorologist
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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sau27
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Not sure how I feel about the sudden abrupt movements the 18z GFS is showing. It has it tracking a bit further west than previous runs, but then smashes the brakes, even backtracks a bit, and then wobbles/zig-zags ashore in central LA.
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DoctorMu
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Scott747 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 10, 2019 5:11 pm 18z is a little further w an s. Turn should be soon if it's like previous runs.
South means west (ward track).

I'll stick with the average between swings - so, Lake Charles and hugging the Sabine after that.
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Canadian comes ashore just east of Galveston. Models in general, suggesting a period of weak currents before coming ashore.


Image


Euro and HMON targeting NOLA.

Lake Charles it is, then! ;)
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