July 2019: Warming Trend/Slight Chances For Rain

[mcheer23]

I see Lake Charles has added in gusts near 90 mph and sustained wind speeds near 65 mph.

[tireman4]

This will be an interesting set of model runs as the data is programmed in...

[djmike]

Beaumont has been added to that NWS tropical storms and hurricane conditions possible list along with Lake Charles.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Never mind... wrong run

[Andrew]

ECMWF coming in a little east on this run so far

[stormlover]

Yep!!!! I think Texas is going to be out of the equation now, 3 days out now!!

[davidiowx]

ECMWF coming in a little east on this run so far

Certainly does. It will be interesting to see the ensembles but I think tonight's runs will be beneficial for determining the track "crosses fingers"

[Kingwood36]

ECMWF coming in a little east on this run so far

Is this the data coming in from the plane or just a model run?

[Cromagnum]

Storm2k folks are saying the ECMWF is initializing too far to the north.

[cperk]

ECMWF coming in a little east on this run so far

Andrew do you think the Euro initialized too far north.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Storm2k folks are saying the ECMWF is initializing too far to the north.

Yep. It’s trying to initialize convection to the north and it’s all the south and southwest at the moment.


The models won’t get it right until the recon data is fed. That hasn’t happened yet.

[cperk]

Yep!!!! I think Texas is going to be out of the equation now, 3 days out now!!

Really.

[srainhoutx]

RECON did find a wind shift S of Mobile Bay. That said winds are not currently to depression strength so far on the first pass of observations.

[stormlover]

Yeah I mean, we are 3 days out last 2 euro runs been on point east of lake Charles, I thinking it’s getting a grasp

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Yep!!!! I think Texas is going to be out of the equation now, 3 days out now!!

Really.

Things will be much clearer after 0z. Right now, it’s still mud.

[tireman4]

Yep!!!! I think Texas is going to be out of the equation now, 3 days out now!!

Not so fast my friend. Everyone needs to be vigilant. The only predictability about trooucal storms is their lack of being predictabilty. Like Dr. Frank says ..never count it out until it is gone

[jasons2k]

The models will struggle until a center consolidates under deep convection....

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Yep!!!! I think Texas is going to be out of the equation now, 3 days out now!!

Not so fast my friend. Everyone needs to be vigilant. The only predictability about trooucal storms is their lack of being predictabilty. Like Dr. Frank says ..never count it out until it is gone

Yeah, my gut feeling is still TX/LA border but I think it would come here before it would land close to NOLA. I don’t buy the northward movement ....

[Andrew]

ECMWF coming in a little east on this run so far

Andrew do you think the Euro initialized too far north.

A little, but I don't think it's as exaggerated as people are saying. I think it was pretty good run by the ECMWF overall. Still a little hesitant though with a batch of models still going west, but feeling a little better about the overall trend for us locally across SE Texas.

[srainhoutx]

Looking at satellite presentations, the entire mess is slowly moving to the SW. That includes the upper/mid circulations and there are several low level vorts rotating around the broad area of lower pressure. Be very careful with those model outputs until we get a lot more additional data. There are numerous 18Z Special Balloon Launches going on across the Region. These Special Balloon Launches will now continue every 6 hours until further notice.