July 2019: Warming Trend/Slight Chances For Rain

[Texaspirate11]

0z Euro Ensemble spread

I guess you could call it a spaghetti western.

I’m sorry it’s 4 am and I couldn’t resist.

thanks for the giggle - its been a LONG night....

[Katdaddy]

A crazy morning on the way at the MidCoast office next to Discovery Green with Good Morning America. Perhaps I can see my friend Travis Herzog and meet Ginger Zee.

I would not be surprised if we have our next TD by this evening in the NE GOM. Some of the models have shifted back W to SE TX overnight. Still many unknowns at this point thus continue being tropical weather aware and have a hurricane plan ready just in case its needed.

From this morning’s Houston-Galveston NWS AFD:

What does this mean for southeast Texas? Although a few of the models have come into a better agreement with the track forecast, uncertainty is still high concerning the direct impacts for the our local region. Possible impacts may include heavy rainfall, storm surge or minor coastal flooding, and/or tropical or hurricane force winds.

Best Case: If the system moves into the LA/MS coast, then the bulk of the storm`s rainfall activity and strongest wind field would remain outside of SE Texas. Thus, a warmer and drier trend would be expected. Main impacts with this scenario would be possible high heat index values (maybe reaching Heat Advisory criteria) along with some convective activity over the local area.

Worst Case: If the system tracks further west and moves into the vicinity of the TX coast, then the bulk of the storm`s rainfall activity and strongest wind field would move in or near SE Texas, or at least portions of it. Thus, a wetter forecast pattern would be expected over our local area. However, due to the uncertainty of the storm`s intensity, specific wind and rainfall values are unknown at this time.

The General Message: Uncertainty in regards of the development and track of the system continues. Regardless of development, now is the time to verify your hurricane preparedness plan with your family and neighbors. Continue to monitor your local NWS and NHC forecasts for the latest information regarding this system.

[Scott747]

Both hurricane models at 6z were slightly to the e compared to the 0z runs.

So far they are inline with the op GFS and moving into la before posing a threat to se tx.

[srainhoutx]

Good morning. We still have a mess off to our East with a bit more convection across the Ne and Northern Gulf, but no real identifiable low level circulation. I do see a upper level spin (500mb) well SSE of Mobile Bay and possibly a weak mid level spin (850mb) West of Tampa. In general the surface and buoy observations do suggest a very broad area of surface low pressure across that portion of the Gulf. I believe we still have another 12 to 24 hours before a definable depression forms and until then, we really are shooting in the dark about an actual center of circulation that can be ingested into the computer model outputs. Hopefully we can get a Hurricane Hunter to investigate this afternoon and provide some good data for this evening.

Oh, and those Euro Ensemble members certainly raise an eyebrow when considering the overnight UKMET. Almost 36 years ago I remember seeing the first grainy satellite and radar images of thunderstorms festering S of Mobile Bay and New Orleans. 2 days later Alicia came calling on the Upper Texas Coast. Stay weather aware folks and if you live along the Coast of Louisiana and the Upper Texas, be prepared to implement those Hurricane plans you should already have in place. Friday night into Saturday is not that far off for a possible land falling tropical system.

[unome]

GOES-East Meso-1 now over 92L

Image from NASA SPoRT

20190710_121739_sport_goesEast_abi_mesoscale1_daytimeMicrophysics - Copy.jpg

[tireman4]

This is an ever changing situation. Please keep checking, Jeff says twice a day, here, the NWS and the NHC. The pro and amateur mets on here will try to snswer your questions as best they can, but remember they are busy too. Thanks again to all the pros that hang out here. We know your time is valuable. Make sure your Hurricane kit is up to date and ready. One last item. The models will continue to flip flop..the trend is what you look for.

[Belmer]

While 18z and 00z Euro came in stronger and further west, the 06z Euro has shifted back east into Louisiana just west of Vermilion Bay with a 988mb at landfall. Weaker, too, suggesting a high end Tropical Storm or weak Cat 1 Hurricane. Expect more windshield wiper adjustments between now and 00z runs tonight. Higher confidence once a CoC develops...

[unome]

cool tool: ITHACA - Extreme Rainfall Detection System (ERDS)

http://www.ithacaweb.org/projects/erds/
http://erds.ithacaweb.org/#layers
https://twitter.com/ithaca_erds

https://twitter.com/NASARain/status/1146462770340270080

NASA Precipitation
‏Verified account @NASARain
Jul 3

Did you know that GPM data is used as an input within the @Ithaca_erds Extreme Rainfall Detection System (ERDS) to provide immediate information about potential extreme hydrological events throughout the world? Learn more: http://www.ithacaweb.org/projects/erds/

Disclaimer

The Extreme Rainfall Detection System (ERDS) is the result of a research activity devoted to the monitoring and forecasting of extreme precipitation at global scale. Although a big effort is made in order to improve the reliability of the system, the data and information provided by ERDS are currently experimental and may not be accurate, especially if intended at local scale. The web site and the data contained within it are provided on 'as available' basis, services and data may be not updated and may be withdrawn at any time and without notice. ITHACA does not assume liability for any inaccuracies in the information provided and for failure of the software.

[dbrooks77346]

Forgive for asking questions , just trying to learn a little bit.

So is the UKMET a reliable model? Also the Ensembles what exactly does that come from?

[srainhoutx]

Wednesday morning Update from Jeff:

Development of a tropical storm or hurricane likely in the northern Gulf of Mexico

Residents should review hurricane plans and supplies and be ready to enact those plans starting today

Hurricane, tropical storm, and storm surge watches will likely be issued later today for portions of the US Gulf coast

Discussion:
Deep convection has developed this morning over the eastern Gulf of Mexico in association with the SSW movement of an area of low pressure off the FL panhandle yesterday evening. Convection is becoming better organized and it is likely that a more defined surface low will form later today SE of the mouth of the MS River and WNW of Tampa. Satellite also shows well defined upper level outflow is already in place across the southern and western potions of the system which is helping to vent the surface layer and increase upward motions.

Track:
There remains considerable uncertainty in the forecast track until and actual surface low/center forms later today. Forecast steering motions will highly hinge on the following:

· A short wave trough moving across the Great Lakes and OH River Valley (wants to pull the system N and NE)

· A developing high pressure ridge over the SW US (wants to pull the system W/SW)

· A developed yet weaker high pressure ridge east of FL (wants to pull the system N)

A stronger system will be steered by a deeper layer of the atmosphere and a look at the storm centered forecasted soundings over the northern Gulf of Mexico by Friday show weak southerly steering winds below about 850mb (a weaker system would move more northward) while winds from 850mb to 200mb are more out of the N and NE (a stronger system would move more W/WNW). Those guidance members that have trended deeper (stronger) with the system overnight have a track more toward the western side of the current guidance envelop) while the weaker guidance shows a more northerly and eastern solution. As for the trough over the Great Lakes, I am just not confident that it will be deep enough to grab the system, especially if the center forms further offshore. Additionally, over the next 24-36 hours as the system begins to attempt to consolidate, deep convection on its southern and southwestern flank will try and “tug” the center toward that area so it will be possible to see center reformations toward the SW/WSW over the next day or so until a well defined inner core develops.

Intensity:
Conditions appears favorable for intensification of the system once a defined center and more likely once a defined inner core develops. Water temperatures over the north-central Gulf are running 85-90 degrees and upper level winds appear to be favorable with light NE shear across the northern Gulf. Intensity guidance has continued to creep upward with a tropical storm very likely and a minimal hurricane certainly possible. As the system nears the US Gulf coast Friday into Saturday there does appear to be a window where some stronger intensification will be possible. This is something that will have to be monitored closely over the next 24-36 hours.

Impacts:
While we are only 72-90 hours from landfall, there still remains significant uncertainty with regard to impacts along the US Gulf coast, where, and how significant. Increasing long period swells will begin to radiate outward from the developing system later today and build across the NW Gulf of Mexico into this weekend. This will result in increasing tides along the upper TX and LA coasts as early as later tomorrow and more likely on Friday. Heavy rainfall is certainly likely along the track of the system, but with that remaining uncertain it is hard to have much faith in any rainfall forecasts at the moment. At the moment this appears to focus across the state of LA. Winds and storm surge potential will also be tied to the track…so not much can be added to those features at this time.

For the upper TX coast: increasing swells will begin to arrive into our outer coastal waters on Thursday and build into the weekend. This will likely bring increasing tides to the Gulf facing beaches. Et surge guidance shows total water levels by late Friday into Saturday up around 3.0ft above MLLW (barnacle level) at Galveston. Will keep rainfall in the 1-3 inches for now.

These impacts are subject to change significantly based on the track

Actions:

· Monitor forecast twice a day
•Check and stock hurricane kits and have plans ready to be enacted this week
•Be ready to enact hurricane response and COOP plans by the middle to end of this week
•Follow trusted weather sources for information (National Hurricane Center, Houston/Galveston National Weather Service, West Gulf River Forecast Center and local government) for any recommendations

[stormlover]

From Bostwick- Satellite pictures and buoy reports indicate the disturbance
south of the Florida Panhandle is becoming better organized early this morning as it moves slowly to the west. This system should become a tropical storm in the next 24 hours.

Unfortunately with the surface low forming further to the south over the Gulf, a more westerly track is certainly on the table. Also, the upper level ridge to the northwest and north of the developing storm is not weakening much at this time. With the ridge basically holding, a more westerly track looks likely.

Therefore, there is an increasing risk of some degree of impact to our area beginning Friday evening through Sunday. Landfall would likely be Saturday with a high likelihood that wherever landfall occurs, it will be as a hurricane.

Still a lot of moving pieces to deal with and I will be updating again later this morning.

[stormlover]

https://www.weatherbell.com/video/the-d ... e-670?full


Joe bastardi

[djmike]

https://www.weatherbell.com/video/the-d ... e-670?full


Joe bastardi

Wow! Talking about the part he “didn't mean to show!”

[Pas_Bon]

https://www.weatherbell.com/video/the-d ... e-670?full


Joe bastardi

Wow! Talking about the part he “didn't mean to show!”

Please enlighten those of us who are following at work sans audio.

[djmike]

Bastardi has state line as potential landfall. Jefferson county/cameron parish.

[Kingwood36]

Bastardi has state line as potential landfall. Jefferson county/cameron parish.

To close for comfort right there

[srainhoutx]

Hey gang, we have a hectic several days about to unfold. Let me encourage you to know your sources and make absolutely sure they are a "Trusted" source. I am already seeing crap starting to be posted on social media and that will only increase. We have a weather community that is known as a reliable and trusted source of information for those that lurk and follow our site. It has taken years to establish that trust and I know everyone wants to keep it that way. Thanks to everyone that contributes and participates. YOU are the reason we have the excellent reputation and a "go to" site for accurate and factual information. Cheers!

[nlosrgr8]

Hey gang, we have a hectic several days about to unfold. Let me encourage you to know your sources and make absolutely sure they are a "Trusted" source. I am already seeing crap starting to be posted on social media and that will only increase. We have a weather community that is known as a reliable and trusted source of information for those that lurk and follow our site. It has taken years to establish that trust and I know everyone wants to keep it that way. Thanks to everyone that contributes and participates. YOU are the reason we have the excellent reputation and a "go to" site for accurate and factual information. Cheers!

Thank you! You could not be more correct!
Signed a long time lurker!

[Kingwood36]

NHC will initiate advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Two at 10 am CDT.

[srainhoutx]

NHC will initiate advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Two at 10 am CDT.

National Hurricane Center‏Verified account @NHC_Atlantic · 5m5 minutes ago
NHC will initiate advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Two at 10 am CDT. http://hurricanes.gov