July 2019: Warming Trend/Slight Chances For Rain

[davidiowx]

The GFS sure doesn't move it much for almost a day sitting off the cost of Louisiana..

[davidiowx]

Is it odd it moves it inland with that 1020 HP sitting over Tennessee?

[mcheer23]

UKMET shifts west toward the TX/LA border

[Andrew]

Is it odd it moves it inland with that 1020 HP sitting over Tennessee?

Look at mid/upper-level charts. It shows a pretty large weakness long the Tennesse Valley. Overall, stronger storms will turn north sooner than weaker storms with this type of steering setup.

[cperk]

UKMET shifts west toward the TX/LA border

How strong was it at landfall.

[mcheer23]

UKMET shifts west toward the TX/LA border

How strong was it at landfall.

946 mb

[dbrooks77346]

So basically the Trough in the plains is the key on whether this comes more our way or parks in LA somewhere?

[cperk]

So basically the Trough in the plains is the key on whether this comes more our way or parks in LA somewhere?

Exactly.

[srainhoutx]

Hurricane Hunter RECON Schedule has updated...

Code: Select all

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1230 PM EDT TUE 09 JULY 2019
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 10/1100Z TO 11/1100Z JULY 2019
         TCPOD NUMBER.....19-042

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT SYSTEM (GULF OF MEXICO)
       FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 72          FLIGHT TWO - NOAA 42
       A. 10/1800Z                   A. 11/0000Z
       B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST         B. AFXXX 02BBA AL92
       C. 10/1700Z                   C. 10/2000Z
       D. 28.3N 86.2W                D. NA
       E. 10/1730Z TO 10/2300Z       E. NA
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT           F. 15,000 TO 25,000 FT

       FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 75        FLIGHT FOUR - NOAA 42
       A. 11/0530Z                   A. 11/1000Z
       B. AFXXX 0302A CYCLONE        B. AFXXX 0402A CYCLONE
       C. 11/0415Z                   C. 11/0800Z
       D. 27.9N 87.8W                D. 27.8N 88.3W
       E. 11/0500Z TO 11/0830Z       E. 11/1030Z TO 11/1500Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT           F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

       FLIGHT FIVE - TEAL 76
       A. 11/1130Z,1730Z
       B. AFXXX 0502A CYCLONE
       C. 11/1000Z
       D. 27.7N 88.5W
       E. 11/1100Z TO 11/1730Z
       F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
       A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND REMAINS
          A THREAT.
       B. NOAA 42 P-3 TDR MISSIONS DEPARTING KLAL AT 11/2000Z AND
          12/0800Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
SEF

NNNN

 

[tireman4]

92 L Satellite View

[tireman4]

92 L Surface Circulation

[djmike]

Curious to see the euro at 100/200pm. If gfs shifted W if the others are gonna follow...

[mcheer23]

The further south and west 92L is...the more interesting it will be for us.

[mcheer23]

Curious to see the euro at 100/200pm. If gfs shifted W if the others are gonna follow...

Eh, last night GFS shifted west, EURO went east.

[djmike]

Curious to see the euro at 100/200pm. If gfs shifted W if the others are gonna follow...

Eh, last night GFS shifted west, EURO went east.

Interested to see if the euro will go back west...

[unome]

Hurricane Hunter RECON Schedule has updated...

Code: Select all

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1230 PM EDT TUE 09 JULY 2019
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 10/1100Z TO 11/1100Z JULY 2019
         TCPOD NUMBER.....19-042

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT SYSTEM (GULF OF MEXICO)
       FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 72          FLIGHT TWO - NOAA 42
       A. 10/1800Z                   A. 11/0000Z
       B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST         B. AFXXX 02BBA AL92
       C. 10/1700Z                   C. 10/2000Z
       D. 28.3N 86.2W                D. NA
       E. 10/1730Z TO 10/2300Z       E. NA
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT           F. 15,000 TO 25,000 FT

       FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 75        FLIGHT FOUR - NOAA 42
       A. 11/0530Z                   A. 11/1000Z
       B. AFXXX 0302A CYCLONE        B. AFXXX 0402A CYCLONE
       C. 11/0415Z                   C. 11/0800Z
       D. 27.9N 87.8W                D. 27.8N 88.3W
       E. 11/0500Z TO 11/0830Z       E. 11/1030Z TO 11/1500Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT           F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

       FLIGHT FIVE - TEAL 76
       A. 11/1130Z,1730Z
       B. AFXXX 0502A CYCLONE
       C. 11/1000Z
       D. 27.7N 88.5W
       E. 11/1100Z TO 11/1730Z
       F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
       A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND REMAINS
          A THREAT.
       B. NOAA 42 P-3 TDR MISSIONS DEPARTING KLAL AT 11/2000Z AND
          12/0800Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
SEF

NNNN 

they are really checking out all the levels, surface to 10k, surface to 15k and 15k to 25k - good to see that - will be a busy day !

[jasons2k]

92 L Surface Circulation

Still looks open to me...

[srainhoutx]

NHC now going with a High chance of development 70%/80%...

07092019 2 PM TWD two_atl_5d0.png

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad low pressure area has emerged over Apalachee Bay in the
northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for tropical cyclone formation and development
over the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to
form by late Wednesday or Thursday while the system moves westward
across the northern Gulf of Mexico. An Air Force Reserve Unit
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low on
Wednesday, if necessary. This disturbance has the potential to
produce heavy rainfall from the Upper Texas Coast to the Florida
Panhandle during the next several days. In addition, this system
could produce wind and storm surge impacts later this week or this
weekend from Louisiana to the Upper Texas coast, and interests along
the Gulf Coast should continue to monitor its progress. For more
information, please see products issued by your local weather
forecast office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

[tireman4]

92 L Surface Circulation

Still looks open to me...

Right, I was just showing it up on satellite..

[sau27]

Almost Euro o' Clock