January 2019 - Active Progressive WX Pattern Ahead

[CRASHWX]

I am watching that as well as first half of feb as a whole!

February has had freezes and winter weather. It also has the most snowfall.

You right it is traditionally our coldest time frame

[Cpv17]

Most people on S2K seem to think the 500mb pattern sucks right now, but I’m not real sure what they’re talking about. The 500mb pattern that appears to be setting up within the next 10 days looks fantastic to me and even the CPC put us into the freezer today on their 6-10 day temp forecast. I think they’re talking about the pattern setting up in the long range, but that’s a fools guessing game.

[davidiowx]

Most people on S2K seem to think the 500mb pattern sucks right now, but I’m not real sure what they’re talking about. The 500mb pattern that appears to be setting up within the next 10 days looks fantastic to me and even the CPC put us into the freezer today on their 6-10 day temp forecast. I think they’re talking about the pattern setting up in the long range, but that’s a fools guessing game.

Lol! If none of the global operational and/or ensembles models show a foot of snow in DFW it’s a river full of tears and anger over there. I visit both a lot as both have great posters (including yourself, Cpv17) but sometimes it’s way overboard! We live in TEXAS! If it snows, hallelujah, but to expect it year after year, or even once every few years, your asking for a serious let down.

[Kingwood36]

Most people on S2K seem to think the 500mb pattern sucks right now, but I’m not real sure what they’re talking about. The 500mb pattern that appears to be setting up within the next 10 days looks fantastic to me and even the CPC put us into the freezer today on their 6-10 day temp forecast. I think they’re talking about the pattern setting up in the long range, but that’s a fools guessing game.

Lol! If none of the global operational and/or ensembles models show a foot of snow in DFW it’s a river full of tears and anger over there. I visit both a lot as both have great posters (including yourself, Cpv17) but sometimes it’s way overboard! We live in TEXAS! If it snows, hallelujah, but to expect it year after year, or even once every few years, your asking for a serious let down.

Agreed 100% lol

[CRASHWX]

You know the thing is we probably have a greater chance of a major tropical system each year than a minimal winter storm and we probably have a much greater chance of taking a Cat5 in the mouth before a 12 inch crippling snow fall that could cause major damage as well...maybe not catostophic but serious damage to the power grid

[Cpv17]

Most people on S2K seem to think the 500mb pattern sucks right now, but I’m not real sure what they’re talking about. The 500mb pattern that appears to be setting up within the next 10 days looks fantastic to me and even the CPC put us into the freezer today on their 6-10 day temp forecast. I think they’re talking about the pattern setting up in the long range, but that’s a fools guessing game.

Lol! If none of the global operational and/or ensembles models show a foot of snow in DFW it’s a river full of tears and anger over there. I visit both a lot as both have great posters (including yourself, Cpv17) but sometimes it’s way overboard! We live in TEXAS! If it snows, hallelujah, but to expect it year after year, or even once every few years, your asking for a serious let down.

Lol yeah, for sure! I mean the models are showing a major front coming in 7-8 days & none of them over there are even saying a word about it. I’m like the only one over there saying anything about it.

[Cpv17]

0z Euro has snow deep down into Mexico next week and all the way down to Brownsville, but doesn’t have anything for us. I really question that.

[CRASHWX]

0z Euro has snow deep down into Mexico next week and all the way down to Brownsville, but doesn’t have anything for us. I really question that.

It will move up the coast the model just looses it...in my opinion

[Cpv17]

0z Euro has snow deep down into Mexico next week and all the way down to Brownsville, but doesn’t have anything for us. I really question that.

It will move up the coast the model just looses it...in my opinion

The 500mb setup on the 0z Euro at day 8 & 9 look absolutely amazing. How the Euro doesn’t show any snow across Texas with the exception of deep south Texas is beyond me.

[stormlover]

Fv3gfs still showing it lol

[srainhoutx]

Tuesday morning weather briefing from Jeff:

Active weather pattern will remain in place over much of the nation resulting in a series of cold front across TX.

Moisture return is underway over the area in response to developing low pressure over NM and the retreat of the weekend cold ridge to the east. Cloud deck will thicken and lower today as Gulf moisture increases and expect that by late morning some areas of drizzle may develop. Rain chances ramp up this evening as a cold front moves into the region. Combination of lift along and behind the front and incoming strong short wave will likely result in widespread showers and possibly a few thunderstorms tonight. Rainfall amounts will generally be on the low side with most areas seeing less than .50 of an inch.

Cold air mass will quickly overtake the region early Wednesday as the next chunk of modified arctic air moves southeast over the Ohio Valley. Low temperature son Wednesday morning will drop into the 36-39 degree range over much of the area and light rainfall will linger until about 6-8am. A few models show just enough cooling in the mid levels to get a flake of snow of tow across our northern counties Wednesday morning, but think the dry air will be working into the area prior to the mid levels being cold enough to support anything frozen. Would not rule out a little bit of rain/snow mix north of a line from College Station to Huntsville tomorrow morning. With surface temperatures above freezing, whatever falls will not have any impacts.

Wednesday will be cold with strong cold air advection likely keeping temperatures in the 40’s all day. Clearing skies late in the day will set the stage for near freezing temperatures Thursday morning over much of the area. This should be a light freeze with lows in the 29-32 range.

Fairly quick return of southerly winds by Thursday evening ahead of another front for late Friday and yet another front for Saturday. The Friday front will likely have little impact over the area, but the Saturday front is being monitored for another shot of cold air and potentially some showers late Saturday. ECMWF model has been the strongest with the short wave on Saturday and shows much more rainfall over the area compared to the drier GFS and CMC. Looks like moisture return will be fairly meager, but intensity of the short wave could squeeze out some rainfall late Saturday. Strong cold air advection once again behind the Saturday evening frontal passage with cold temperatures again next Sunday.

Another front looks to impact the area next Tuesday and this boundary may bring more “true” arctic air toward the area however models have been struggling greatly with the recent cold air intrusions into the US and that trajectory of these air masses. Most of the coldest air has been shunted to the NE/E of our region so that is something to watch heading into next week to see exactly how much cold air we may in fact get.

[CRASHWX]

16 DAY MEAN SNOW...more interested in the blanket laid down across the north.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 221146
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
546 AM CST Tue Jan 22 2019

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

A strong LLJ has developed over the area but moisture return has
not quite increased as much as expected. That moisture increase is
still expected today and should help support MVFR ceilings the
rest of the day into tonight. LLJ of near 40kts is pretty strong
but still enough mixing not to need LLWS in TAFs. For now will go
with ceilings dropping to MVFR later this morning through the rest
of the afternoon. Cold front should reach KCLL by 03Z-ish and
then Houston terminals 06Z-ish and off the coast. TAFs will keep
mention of SHRA/RA but would not be surprised if there were an
isolated storm for a brief mention of TSRA. Likely time frame for
that will be along the front. Post frontal precipitation should
come to an end after 12Z WED or the end of the TAF.

Overpeck

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 409 AM CST Tue Jan 22 2019/...

.DISCUSSION...
Radar imagery is quiet this morning across SE TX, though some of the
global guidance was indicating the potential for some light rain or
drizzle area wide. For example, NAM12 this morning appears to be
overdone, currently placing light showers over our far eastern
zones, east of I-45 as well as north of I-10. The GFS and ECMWF
have trended drier in the short term, not increasing the chance
for scattered showers or drizzle until mid morning, out ahead of
today`s cold front. Anticipate better coverage of streamer showers
and drizzle below the strong cap of dry air between 850 to 700mb
as seen in the forecast soundings by late morning, carrying on
through the remainder of the day. Most of today`s precipitation
won`t occur until later this evening associated with the frontal
boundary..

Overcast skies will hang tight today, keeping high temperatures in
the mid 60s to low 70s. Onshore flow will place dewpoints in the
upper 50s to low 60s. Forecast soundings indicate precipitable
waters (PWs) between 0.60 to 0.80 inches for much of the day,
increasing through the overnight hours to between 1.10 to 1.30
inches, approximately a quarter to half inch above normal PWs for
this time of year. Pressure falls will continue over NW NM into N
TX as the cold front tracks eastward. This area of low pressure
will take a SE dive through S OK and across the Red River Valley
this afternoon, with a cold front trailing behind. There is fairly
good agreement on the timing of this cold front. Showers and a few
isolated thunderstorms will be possible with the frontal passage,
mainly during the evening and overnight hours, with the front
pushing off the coast early Wednesday morning. Based on the global
guidance 00Z runs, the wind shift and associated precipitation
should reach our northern zones from Burleson to Houston counties
between 9 to 11 pm, I-10 and the metro around 11pm and 2am, and
finally the coast closer to 2 to 5am. Forecast soundings show
little in the way of instability, with the best lapse rates of 5-6
C/km looking to occur during the early morning hours with little
in the way of CAPE. Still cannot rule out a few isolated rumbles
of thunder as the main line of precipitation pushes southward. The
chance for a wintry mix of precipitation across our far northern
counties appears unlikely at this time. The timing of the best
moisture and coldest temperatures appear out of phase, and
forecast soundings show ample drying in the mid levels, acting to
hinder the development of wintry precipitation. Additionally,
surface temperatures should remain above freezing, so impacts look
to be minimal even if isolated pockets of wintry precipitation
do occur. We will continue to monitor this time frame closely as
we receive updated model guidance and data moving forward.

Surface high pressure will build in behind the front by Wednesday
morning and remain overhead through early Friday morning. Skies
will clear from NW to SE Wednesday, with clear skies area wide by
late Wednesday afternoon. Dry air will usher in behind this
feature as well, and PWs drop well below a quarter of an inch.
With the ridge in control across the region, anticipating a
substantial swing in the diurnal temperatures. High temperatures
in the mid 40s to low 50s and low temperatures Wednesday into
Thursday in the upper 20s to 30s. Wednesday should be the coldest
day through the next week. The warming trend ensues Thursday and
Friday with high temperatures in the 50s and low temperatures 30s
to 40s.

Partly cloudy skies will return to the forecast Saturday. Onshore
flow is anticipated early Saturday morning out ahead of the next
frontal feature which looks to move through the region late
Saturday into Sunday. This front will bring our next best chance
for precipitation, with the potential for area wide showers
Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. Still plenty of
uncertainty in the extended with various solutions amongst
global guidance, with the ECMWF remaining the wettest solution at
this time. Additionally, global guidance also hints at another
cold front looking to reach SE TX late Monday into Tuesday.

Hathaway

.MARINE...
Strong onshore flow should continue this morning and then begin to
decrease later this afternoon. 42019 buoy had a recent gust of 33
knots with sustained winds at 25 knots. Colder Gulf shelf waters are
holding down wind near the coast where the 42035 buoy has 10-15 kt
winds. Stronger winds are pushing seas higher with 9ft at the 42019
and 6ft at 42035. Advisory and cautions will continue this morning
with an advisory for the offshore waters this afternoon mainly for
higher seas. Seas should not subside much ahead of the front given
the long southerly fetch.

Cold front is slated to push off shore around 09Z Wednesday. Overall
looks like there will be a chance at some frequent gusts above gale
force for the offshore waters from Freeport to Matagorda so we will
issue a gale watch for those areas from 10Z to 18Z Wednesday. Small
craft advisory will be issued for the rest of the marine waters of
the upper Texas coast. Advisory conditions will continue after 18Z
Wednesday and subside Wednesday night. Return flow sets up for the
end of the week with southerly winds as high pressure moves east.

Tides to start out today are a good 1 foot above normal and likely
see higher tides continue through today. With the cold front pushing
through Wednesday morning, we may need to monitor tides for a low
water advisory by Wednesday afternoon for low tide. Tide levels
could swing to about 1 foot below normal.

Overpeck


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 70 38 49 32 58 / 50 70 30 0 0
Houston (IAH) 71 40 49 33 57 / 30 100 60 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 67 44 49 41 54 / 20 90 90 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 6 PM CST Wednesday for the
following zones: Coastal waters from High Island to
Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until noon CST today for the
following zones: Matagorda Bay.

Gale Watch from late tonight through Wednesday morning for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for the following
zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
Freeport TX out 20 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from noon to 6 PM CST Wednesday for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION from noon CST today through
late tonight for the following zones: Coastal waters from
Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal
waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Wednesday for the following
zones: Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60
NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CST Wednesday for the following
zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX
from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

[redneckweather]

Tireman, maybe provide a link next time for that discussion. That took up an entire page. lol

[tireman4]

Tireman, maybe provide a link next time for that discussion. That took up an entire page. lol

Well, for almost 10 years, I have provided the text because some folks cannot access the link. I could provide the link, but I think it goes to the general Noaa page. I could be wrong.

[jasons2k]

It’s also helpful to have the full text in the archives.

[CRASHWX]

4926CB9E-FE93-4CE9-AB72-8FD945AB34B0.png

[stormlover]

Fvgfs is still showing it

[mcheer23]

Fvgfs is still showing it

It has for 25 straight runs in SE TX. At least its consistent.

[stormlover]

Fvgfs is still showing it

It has for 25 straight runs in SE TX. At least its consistent.

lol we are about to see how good it is lol