January 2019 - Active Progressive WX Pattern Ahead

[srainhoutx]

Folks, let's remember that the Weather Community is tight knit. Many of us are members or frequent other online weather communities. Each is different and attracts people for various reasons. Treat each other with respect and all will be good.

Enough said.

[harp]

There are a lot of weather pages on Facebook and many of them ignore other parts of the country other than the northeast. It's as though nothing else exists. JB is one who seems to favor the northeast due to the fact that he lives in Pennsylvania.

[Cpv17]

It seems like every forecast that’s made is made for the northeast and the rest of the nation doesn’t exist. At least that’s the impression that I’ve gotten over the past few years. I guess it’s due to the massive population in that area. And honestly it’s easy for them to get really interesting weather there. They’re constantly in the sweet spot cuz it seems like the jets are always phasing over them. Very rarely can we get the jets to phase over us.

[Katdaddy]

Excellent post’s from Belmer and Jason. I remember the long range model talks at GoPBi Storm 97, 98, and 99 before Storm2k. Everyone needs to remember a long range model run is not the answer. Look at the overall pattern followed by model consistency 5-7 days out from a weather event to get an idea of what may occur. Winter precipitation in SE TX is the most difficult to predict even 5-7 days out.

[cperk]

Folks, let's remember that the Weather Community is tight knit. Many of us are members or frequent other online weather communities. Each is different and attracts people for various reasons. Treat each other with respect and all will be good.

Enough said.

Well said let’s focus on our weather (wxinfinity)forum and leave storm2k to storm2k.

[Andrew]

The topic needs to get back to weather. This board has become way to "chippy" over the last couple days. Many people across the gulf coast use this site for day to day weather along with long range discussion. Please keep it on topic or we will start issuing some breaks for people.

[CRASHWX]

There are a lot of weather pages on Facebook and many of them ignore other parts of the country other than the northeast. It's as though nothing else exists. JB is one who seems to favor the northeast due to the fact that he lives in Pennsylvania.

Gotta remember he is still an ole’ Texas boy at least somewhat lived in College Station for 5 years. Lol

[CRASHWX]

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[CRASHWX]

Well here in central Hardin County anyway...sure looks like the temps are cooling overall.

[Andrew]

For the next week looks like the cold front will push through much of the state from Friday night until sunrise Saturday. It looks like the front will be off the coast by early morning Saturday with strong cold air advection through the day. A broken line of rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible during the overnight hours. Skies should clear through the day on Saturday with generally clear skies overnight Saturday into Sunday morning. The only thing that will keep temperatures from really tanking Sunday morning will be a breezy north wind and a couple high based streamer clouds. Either way near freezing will be felt across most of the region. For the marathon mid 30s during the beginning of the race, warming to the mid 40s by the end of the race with a north wind. Feel like temperatures during the start of the race will be in the 20s.

For the beginning of next week temperatures will warm up on Monday and Tuesday ahead of another front on Wednesday pushing temperatures back into the 30s for lows. Overall this active pattern looks to stay in place for the next couple of weeks. We will have to continue to monitor the Central and Western parts of Canada to see how cold the source region is. Enjoy winter while we have it, it doesn't last long down here.

[jasons2k]

The NWS now has me at 31 Saturday Night and 35 Sunday night. I wonder if this will be a heavy frost situation after the rain. Something to watch for.

Also, the rain chances tomorrow night were lowered from 90% to 50%. Wasn’t expecting that as they kept steadily raising them until yesterday.

The run tonight was fantastic. In the 60’s. Ran in shorts and short sleeves. Ran the furthest I’ve run since December 17th (although I was sick for almost 3 weeks too!!)...

It was nice to see the sun again too.

[don]

FWIW the 0z GFS gets close to showing a winter storm across southeast Texas this Wednesday with temperatures in the mid to upper 30s across most of the area with plenty of precip, definitely a trend in the right direction.

[Andrew]

FWIW the 0z GFS gets close to showing a winter storm across southeast Texas this Wednesday with temperatures in the mid to upper 30s across most of the area with plenty of precip, definitely a trend in the right direction.

Unfortunately, I feel like we are going to be 5-10 degrees too warm for winter precip. Dew points are in the lower 30s but not much room for wet bulbing to take place. I feel like over Central Texas if enough moisture is left over behind the front they could see some mixed precip. Still 5-6 days out though so I imagine it will change a good bit (probably for the drier).

[don]

The 0z Euro is now showing a light wintry mix across the area...for things to work out we need temps colder at the surface though.
Let's see if the trend continues over the next few days.

[Andrew]

The 0z Euro is now showing a light wintry mix across the area...for things to work out we need temps colder at the surface though.
Let's see if the trend continues over the next few days.

I noticed that too. Interesting to note surface temps are near 40 degrees but if the upper-level profile is anything like the GFS most of the profile is near freezing. As usual, how strong of a warm nose we get could dictate the weather. Could be one of those situations where if moisture sticks around enough you see a few scattered pellets that melt at the surface.

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[CRASHWX]

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5 Days
6-11 days
11-16 days
16 day snowmean
JB SAID MODELS BEGINNING TO SHIW BUG ARTIC INVASION AROUND 26th to 31st

[CRASHWX]

Sorry loaded out of order

[Cpv17]

Nice accumulations on the FV3, but we need temps at the surface to be 5-7 degrees colder.



I also want to add that this has support from a few GFS and Euro ensembles as well, but it’s still 5 days out. Plenty of things could change.

[jasons2k]

NWS now has me at 32 Sat Night and 39 Sun night. Rain chances now 70% for tonight....

Not even looking at next week yet. It will change.

[CRASHWX]

Oh you are it change ...prob 15 times