January 2019 - Active Progressive WX Pattern Ahead

[CRASHWX]

I don’t buy the models temp runs next week...it does not add up to the major changes in the atmosphere. Just opinion and precip. Gonna flip like hot cakes at IHoP

[srainhoutx]

Tuesday morning weather briefing from Jeff:

Main forecast item of interest for the next several days will be the arrival of an arctic air mass into the region Saturday and rain chances ahead of this feature.

Cloud bank has overspread the region this morning and with continued NE winds draining cold air into the region from western Louisiana, temperatures are not going to rise much today…likely only into the mid 50’s. Coastal trough will slowly develop along the middle TX coast later this afternoon and help in increase moisture advection over the surface cold air mass. Expect light rain, drizzle and fog to develop overnight and linger into Wednesday especially south of I-10.

Much warmer air mass spreads into the region on developing southerly winds ahead of a powerful upper level trough and arctic front. With increasing moisture and some instability in place by Friday expect to see scattered showers and even a few thunderstorms develop over the region. Approach of the strong frontal boundary and upper level trough late Friday into early Saturday will result in widespread showers and thunderstorms. Overall fast motion of the system should keep rainfall totals generally under 1 inch for most areas.

Weekend:

Arctic cold front will blast across the region with strong cold air advection and rapidly falling temperatures. Front should be near the coast by late morning and all sites will experience high temperatures prior to the frontal passage. Temperatures by Saturday afternoon and evening will likely be a solid 20-30 degrees colder than Friday evening as strong cold air advection drives the air mass across TX and offshore. Advective freeze is looking likely for most areas NW of US 59 for Saturday night and winds will continue to howl as the arctic high pressure builds into the area. Wind chills by Sunday morning will fall well into the 20’s and 10’s over the entire region with winds of 15-25mph. Low temperatures Sunday morning will fall into the low 30’s and upper 20’s along and NW of US 59 and into the mid 20’s N of HWY 105. This will be a damaging advective freeze event will winds remaining up all night reducing the “greenhouse” effect of warmth from the earth’s surface. High temperatures on Sunday will struggle to get much above 40 degrees and with the center of the arctic high just NE of SE TX Sunday night, maximum cold conditions can be expected with clear skies and calm winds. Will likely be looking at a hard freeze (25 or lower for 2 hours or more) for a good portion of the area Monday morning with temperatures into the mid 20’s along and N of I-10 and upper 20’s to the coast.

Take the time over the next few days to prepare for this cold weather outbreak and winterize outdoor items that require protection.

[tireman4]

Tweet From Jeff....

[Kingwood36]

Sure is quite in here...

[CRASHWX]

Waiting for the next model Firenze! Lol

[sambucol]

Yep! Waiting on the next model run! I have a good feeling about our chances of snow

[Cpv17]

I’m loving the look on the 12z model suite today!

[CRASHWX]

Snow still showing up on MEANS

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[Kingwood36]

I’m loving the look on the 12z model suite today!

Well??? Come on..spill it! Lol

[Cpv17]

Just wanted to say the trend on today’s models have warmed temperatures up a good 5-7 degrees for this weekend. A light freeze instead of a hard freeze basically. We shall see.

[Kingwood36]

Just wanted to say the trend on today’s models have warmed temperatures up a good 5-7 degrees for this weekend. A light freeze instead of a hard freeze basically. We shall see.

Figures

[Cpv17]

I’m loving the look on the 12z model suite today!

Well??? Come on..spill it! Lol

It appears as we head later into this month, instead of the coldest anomalies sliding off towards our east, they may head more in our direction. I always look up in Canada for the cold air. If it builds in central Canada, we usually just get a glancing blow and the east and southeast gets the brunt of it, but if it builds in western or west central Canada, then we usually get hammered. We need the PNA to relax and go towards a neutral phase. The telleconnections are awesome right now, with a -EPO, -AO, & -NAO. You don’t see that happen that much. Now we just need the PNA to cooperate and we should cash in.

[Kingwood36]

So what happens if the PNA doesn't cooperate? Sorry for all the questions just trying to learn a bit lol

[Cpv17]

So what happens if the PNA doesn't cooperate? Sorry for all the questions just trying to learn a bit lol

A negative PNA basically is a big trough in the west and a ridge in the east. Meaning the west would be cold and stormy. Cold air likes to make its way south into the base of a trough. A positive PNA is opposite. Ridging in the west, troughing over the east. A neutral PNA has favorable conditions across the central part of the country..often times we see a +PNA setup during the winter. That’s why the northeast gets hammered with major snowstorms almost every year it seems.

[srainhoutx]

As we flip flop along with the various model schemes, just remember those models are still resolving some issues from the Sudden Strat Warming Event. The Polar Vortex that was raging over Eastern Europe/Siberia has completely collapsed and indications are growing that the warming in the Stratosphere are working their way down to the Troposphere where we live. The Ensembles are suggesting a fairly deep fall into a very Negative Artic Oscillation state as the end of January nears. Those same Ensembles suggest the East Pacific Oscillation will tank to a rather negative state as well. The latest 12 European model is showing a signal of a potential storm system early/mid next week. That is what that Happy Hour GFS run of yesterday depicted and has since dropped. Theses model will remain rather volatile up until 24 to 72 hours prior to any event. Our weekend weather system is still well out in the Northern Pacific Ocean and will not be inland until sometime Thursday night/early Friday. That approaching storm system will be impacting the West Coast over the next 3 days with heavy rainfall and very heavy higher terrain snow that will spread into the Central Rockies by Friday. Snow is likely across much of the Central Plains and on East and NE depending on the eventual storm track.

Oh, and I see Mickey Mouse showing up in the long range Euro Charts. It always raises an eyebrow when a big old North American Blocking regime rears it's head. While in may not be record breaking cold by any means. It does get my attention and likely will keep folks interested in watching the upcoming much talked about weather pattern develop. Cheers!

[Cpv17]

This is what I like to see folks! Horseshoe shaped blocking! Looks fantastic!! Lock it in please! This is off today’s 12z Euro:

[tireman4]

Remember folks..this happens all the time:

1. Models do not handle the cold well.
2. Models lose the cold all the time. All the time.
3. Good rule of thumb...5-7 days out before an event.

IMHO. I could be way off. Your mileage may vary

[Cpv17]

This is what I meant earlier by saying towards the end of the month the coldest anomalies are aimed more towards Texas, rather than the east/southeast. This is what you want to see.

[CRASHWX]

Perfect example of models under underestimating temps with Artic front...they will either flip of correct as the mesoscale models take up the slack...IMO

[Cpv17]

Just wanted to say the trend on today’s models have warmed temperatures up a good 5-7 degrees for this weekend. A light freeze instead of a hard freeze basically. We shall see.

Figures

I wouldn’t worry too much about it. Global models do this a lot at this stage within 5 days. They tend to lose the cold air. Once we can start using the mesoscale models around Thursday then we can make a more accurate forecast.