January 2019 - Active Progressive WX Pattern Ahead

[Katdaddy]

Mostly sunny skies this morning with increasing clouds this afternoon. A high chance of rain, showers, and a possible thunderstorm tonight through early Saturday morning. Clearing skies Saturday morning will lead to a mostly sunny Saturday afternoon with highs in the mid 60s. Mostly sunny Sunday with highs in the mid 50s.

[tireman4]

There is good agreement in the latest long-range models and ensembles that our much anticipated pattern change will be arriving over the next few weeks. Canada will likely get cold in the 6-10 day frame, with potential cross polar flow bringing the cold air down into the U.S. and eventually Texas around or shortly after January 20.

My long-range coworker and I are in agreement that the January 20-February 20 time period will be filled with several threats of winter storms across the state. Just be patient...exciting times are likely coming soon!

South Texas Storms glad to have you join us at the WXinfinity forum.

Thanks, happy to be here!

And yeah, I'm definitely on the cold and wet train. It's looking like we're heading towards that kind of weather pattern by late January into February. We'll see...still plenty of time to monitor.

Welcome. So glad to have you here.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 111203
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
603 AM CST Fri Jan 11 2019

.DISCUSSION [12Z TAF ISSUANCE]...

VFR conditions will prevail this morning with winds becoming more
SE during the day. A cold front is expected to move across the
region this afternoon through Saturday morning, resulting in an
increase in SHRA activity with possible TSRA. Heaviest activity
should occur from around 12/05 to 12/10Z resulting in periods of
MVFR/IFR conditions. Thereafter, rain activity will clear up but
some -RA mixed with BR could prevail at the end of the forecast
period. Winds will become more west after 12/10Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 AM CST Fri Jan 11 2019/

DISCUSSION...
Ridging over KY extending into TX leading to light east and
southeast flow over the area. Skies are generally clear but ST
deck is expanding north and east from the Hill Country/Coastal
Bend as WAA increases moisture over SETX. Upper troughing over the
4 Corners will swing out to the east today and tonight with the
associated cold front moving through W TX this afternoon and into
SETX overnight/early Saturday. The profile over the region
moistens up from the 0.8-1." PW range this morning to 1.2-1.4"
tonight. As the mid levels moisten up expect to see an increase in
mid level clouds this afternoon over the area as well as the SC
deck expansion. Rain chances start in the far west late this
afternoon and then rapidly expand east and increase in coverage.
Overnight with the frontal passage expect a broad swath of
showers/light rain to pass through...limited CAPE tonight but
given the strong PVA and relatively high PW (for January-near the
2nd standard deviation) will most likely see scattered
thunderstorms mixed in with the swath. Greater forcing over the
north should help to focus not only the thunderstorms in that area
but probably increase rain rates as well. Most areas should get
0.2-0.4" of rain out of this with some spots getting 1 to 2
inches. Rain chances come down quickly Saturday morning from west
to east and dry weather should be on tap with slightly below
normal coolish temperatures again Sunday through Tuesday. Rain
chances return Tuesday as the subtropical jet aims a plume of
Pacific moisture over Mexico and combines with the retreating
surface ridging and easterly flow to bring a stratiform rain
setup to SETX Tuesday PM through Wednesday afternoon. Overcast and
gloomy probably a good descriptor for this one. A s/w moving
through the area flattens out Wednesday and leaves the area with a
front/pre-frontal trough close by and lingering rain chances as
another upper trough takes aim on the Southern Plains but on the
upside temperatures Wed-Fri look warmer.
45

MARINE...
Southeast winds expected today. A cold front is expected to reach
the coast Saturday afternoon. Winds will become north in the wake of
the front Saturday night and continue through early next week. SCEC
conditions are possible over the Gulf waters Saturday afternoon
through Sunday morning. Onshore flow is expected to return by
midweek.
24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 63 53 60 38 52 / 10 70 10 0 0
Houston (IAH) 67 56 66 41 56 / 0 90 20 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 64 58 65 46 55 / 0 70 40 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...45
Aviation/Marine...24

[harp]

Did ya'll see the last few frames of the 12Z FV3 GFS?? Wow, it dumps the motherload of cold along with precip. I know it's way far out and will change, but I sure like the trend.

[Cpv17]

Well I see the 12z FV3 is back similar to what it was showing at 6z a few mornings ago. Massive blocking up north sending historic Artic blasts down south. This is the second time now the FV3 has shown this in the past 3 days.

[Cpv17]

The 12z Euro is now showing a pretty strong front coming through around the 19th/20th. Most likely would result in a freeze for most of the viewing area. That front could mark the beginning of a series of strong fronts. I don’t really see any normal or above normal temps after the 20th.

[jasons2k]

If you rewind several weeks, were supposed to be in the icebox by now. Still 10 days away. I’m holding out hope it won’t be as bad as the models are showing.

[Cpv17]

If you rewind several weeks, were supposed to be in the icebox by now. Still 10 days away. I’m holding out hope it won’t be as bad as the models are showing.

Winter is coming about two to three weeks later than expected. Many of us thought it would be here the first week of January, but we failed to realize how long it would take for the SSW to work its way down here towards the surface from whatever layer of the atmosphere is way up there lol I think it’s called the troposphere?

[CRASHWX]

Real strat-warm events can take several weeks to translate...NOTE TO SELF!

[tireman4]

Tim Heller's last day is today

[CRASHWX]

YES IT COMES GOES AND HAS FOR DAYS...LOL

[CRASHWX]

I’m having heck learning how to manage uploads! I am officially. T-tard...hope you guys can figure it out! Lol

[Kingwood36]

26639F0C-4042-4412-B3A7-9EB7461512EC.pngF90DFDDE-19AC-4261-BCA4-E73ACCA841F6.pngE38C635D-E40C-40B6-BD4B-4B93DD2616DE.png2A496B41-DB88-43B7-BB94-7A22711F711F.pngYES IT COMES GOES AND HAS FOR DAYS...LOL

Nice to see but none of it reaches houston... atleast not yet

[Andrew]

There does seem to be general support that between the 20 & 25 of January cold air will filter south into the United States. The bigger question is how far south it dives before tracking east and if there is any overrunning moisture.

[Andrew]

I’m having heck learning how to manage uploads! I am officially. T-tard...hope you guys can figure it out! Lol

Hey Crash,

What is your specific issue? You can place it inline if you want and that helps to organize it somewhat. I know it is a little more difficult to do on mobile versus a computer. Let me know if you need any help. Thanks for all the posts you have done.

[CRASHWX]

I’m having heck learning how to manage uploads! I am officially. T-tard...hope you guys can figure it out! Lol

Hey Crash,

What is your specific issue? You can place it inline if you want and that helps to organize it somewhat. I know it is a little more difficult to do on mobile versus a computer. Let me know if you need any help. Thanks for all the posts you have done.

Ok like when I go to library and select and then it loads I am not sure which one is which so if I tag info to it sometimes it wrong

[CRASHWX]

I’m sure I just doing something wrong...but when a great site! I have so much fun interacting! You guys did a bang up job!

[CRASHWX]

[CRASHWX]

o

[CRASHWX]