SEPTEMBER 2018 - Very Wet Month Wrap Up

[texascanetracker]

Modeling seems to match analogs for 95 L but I'm guessing a blocking high has more to do with direction.

[sau27]

Convection is starting to blow up around the circulation just off the Northern Yucatan coast. There still looks to be some northerly shear but today is the day that should begin to relax a bit.
12z GFS coming in - still doesn't want to buy into this system.

[snowman65]

Is the 12Z showing Isaac going through the gulf and hitting Florida panhandle?

[sau27]

It is but its the first run to show such a solution. I wouldn't put much on it at this point. It would have a tough road to get there.

[don]

Back to 70%....

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Sep 12 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Florence, located over the western Atlantic Ocean, on Hurricane
Helene, located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean, and on Tropical
Storm Isaac, located a few hundred miles east of the Lesser
Antilles.

1. Satellite images and surface observations indicate that a broad
area of low pressure has formed in the central Gulf of Mexico.
Although the shower activity is still disorganized, upper-level
winds are forecast to become more conducive for development, and
it is likely that a tropical depression will form on Thursday,
before the system reaches the western Gulf coast. Another
reconnaissance plane is scheduled to investigate the disturbance
tomorrow. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds
are expected across portions of northeastern Mexico, Texas, and
Louisiana late this week, and interests there should monitor the
progress of this system, and refer to products from their local
weather office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[don]

12z HWRF has a Tropical Depression/Storm near Port Aransas with heavy bands of rain moving into Southeast Texas.

[Scott747]

That 12z gfs run is wild.

Suggests we might just be model watching another couple of weeks.

[tireman4]

That 12z gfs run is wild.

Suggests we might just be model watching another couple of weeks.

Oh do tell or show..

[sau27]

That 12z gfs run is wild.

Suggests we might just be model watching another couple of weeks.

Oh do tell or show..

To summarize: Isaac enters the Gulf and hangs a hard right over Western Cuba and hits the Florida panhandle in about a week. After coming ashore what is left of it goes up the east coast, soaking the areas that will already be drenched by Florence.
Next our first fall front pushes through around the 26th and the run ends at hour 384 with another tropical system sitting just to the north of the Yucatan.

Entertaining indeed. I would rather put my money on the Texans playing the Cowboys in the Superbowl this year than this model run panning out.

[Cpv17]

The HWRF drops buckets of rain across a good chunk of our region.

[sau27]

12z Euro is now in. If there is one thing the GFS and Euro can agree on it is that neither has much hope for 95L

[stormlover]

euro does send Vorticity into southern gom....

[Rip76]

Traveling today.

Anything look interesting on satellite regarding 95L?
Shear/trough holding it back, etc?

Thanks

[Cpv17]

Traveling today.

Anything look interesting on satellite regarding 95L?
Shear/trough holding it back, etc?

Thanks

Thunderstorm/convection activity has increased dramatically throughout the day compared to what it was 12 hours ago and NHC raised the percentage back up to 70%.

[Rip76]

Thank you.
I saw the 70% again and was just curious.

[Texaspirate11]

Flash Flood Watch for SE TX starting at MIDNIGHT
thru Thursday

[srainhoutx]

HGX expecting an additional widespread 2 to 4 inches along our Coastal tier of Counties from whatever becomes of 95L with isolated totals of 8 inches possible. Another Flood Watch likely will be required as 95L or something stronger approaches the Lower to Middle Texas Coast.

[jasons2k]

The FFW is just for the coastal zones. Most of the Houston metro area is excluded.

[davidiowx]

The trend today has whatever this turns into, making landfall south of Corpus.

[Texaspirate11]

I was asked by Dickinson OEM to post this for anyone
who LIVES WORKS or PLAYS in Dickinson
Dickinson Connect

https://dickinsonalert.bbcportal.com/Entry

If you know someone...pass it along