SEPTEMBER 2018 - Very Wet Month Wrap Up

[srainhoutx]

Breaking: The NHC has designated the NW Caribbean area of Disturbed Weather as INVEST 95L

[tireman4]

Invest 95L

[Andrew]

NHC probably declared it an invest due to a little more support from the GFS. With that said still don't expect much development over the next couple days. Any development will likely occur right before landfall.

[mcheer23]

1. Showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and
western Cuba, associated with a surface trough, are showing some
signs of organization. This system is forecast to move slowly
northwestward near the Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday with limited
development. Upper-level winds are forecast to become more
conducive for development on Wednesday when the system moves over
the southern Gulf of Mexico, and a tropical depression could form
on Thursday or Friday while the disturbance moves across the
western Gulf of Mexico. Interests across northeastern Mexico and
the coast of Texas and Louisiana should monitor the progress of
this system. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty
winds are likely over western Cuba through Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[BlueJay]

Good night! Have we ever had so many tropical systems going on at the same time?

[cperk]

NHC probably declared it an invest due to a little more support from the GFS. With that said still don't expect much development over the next couple days. Any development will likely occur right before landfall.

The NHC has a little different take on this system in my opinion.

[mcheer23]

I think models are underestimating this tropical wave.

[stormlover]

euro looks south tx bound

[ticka1]

honest thoughts on 95L will SE Texas see anything and will it develop?

[srainhoutx]

Midday briefing from Jeff for 95L:

Residents along the coasts from Louisiana to NE MX should closely monitor this system

NHC has increased the odds of development of this feature to 50%.

While surface observations continue to indicate a fairly uniform SE wind profile through the wave axis, thunderstorms activity is generally increasing and banding features are becoming more frequent on the eastern and SE flanks of the wave axis. This wave will move slowly NW into the Gulf of Mexico this week where upper level winds are expected to become slightly more favorable for development. The wave is forecast to move toward the WNW and NW in the general direction of the TX coast. Forecast models are becoming a little more bullish on the development of this feature over the NW Gulf of Mexico late this week, with varying solutions as the system nears the NW Gulf coast.

The forecast is likely to see significant changes over the coming days and residents are urged to check the forecast at least daily for changes.

Residents along the TX coast should review their tropical storm and hurricane plans. Now would be a good time to make sure those hurricane kits are fully stocked.

[Andrew]

ECMWF is showing the best development right near landfall. Makes sense as other models have also been indicating that anticyclonic upper level flow could develop over the western gulf late this week. Slower it moves better chance for development.

[stormlover]

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_ATL/atlanim8vis.html

looks like its getting better organized but who knows

[srainhoutx]

Still looking like a sheared lop sided system where the worst of the weather will be NE and E of whatever development happens prior to landfall. Someone across portions of SE Texas into SW Louisiana could see an awfully lot of rainfall.

[Andrew]

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_ATL/atlanim8vis.html

looks like its getting better organized but who knows

A lot of that convection is from the TUTT. Heavily sheared as the vorticity is still well to the west and south of the convection. Going to stay that way until the TUTT moves out of the way and shears out some.

[unome]

http://hurricanecity.com/models/models. ... stinvest=1

the "Storm Page" for Invest 95L from Tropical Atlantic.com, mirrored by HurricaneCity to reduce strain on server

links to storm-specific satellite, models & much more

[srainhoutx]

And for those wondering, the last time there were 4 Hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin at one time was 1893.

[snowman65]

This GFS loop shows Florence bouncing off the tip of N.C/Va. then moving back out to sea, then going back for a second landfall, hanging around for awhile inland, then heading back out to see again.....Very "Harvey" like...IDK

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1012&fh=96

[DoctorMu]

And for those wondering, the last time there were 4 Hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin at one time was 1893.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Sep 10 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Florence, located over the west-central Atlantic Ocean, on
Hurricane Helene, located over the eastern Atlantic, and on
Hurricane Isaac, located over the central tropical Atlantic.

1. Showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and
western Cuba, associated with a surface trough, are showing some
signs of organization. This system is forecast to move slowly
northwestward near the Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday with limited
development. Upper-level winds are forecast to become more
conducive for development on Wednesday when the system moves over
the southern Gulf of Mexico, and a tropical depression could form
on Thursday or Friday while the disturbance moves across the
western Gulf of Mexico. Interests across northeastern Mexico and
the coast of Texas and Louisiana should monitor the progress of
this system. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty
winds are likely over western Cuba through Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php

[jasons2k]

Meanwhile, back home, most of the heaviest rain is well off to the Northeast now. Most of the stuff around here and along the coast is just light stratiform rain.

I also see some rotation on the radar SE of San Antonio. Maybe that will gel into something overnight as it moves ENE...

[srainhoutx]

The afternoon just Updated surface charts for Days 3 through 5 have a low pressure system approaching the Lower/Middle Texas Coast Friday night/Saturday morning somewhere from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas.