MARCH 2018 - Pleasant Good Friday/Easter Weekend Ahead

[unome]

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/af ... 1803190015

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
715 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

.UPDATE...
Severe weather threat (large hail) continues across the area and
have expanded the severe thunderstorm watch from Montgomery to
Waller to Jackson county. Storms moving east and southeast but
should weaken between 8 and 9 pm.

[unome]

local storm reports http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/exper/lsr/ ... autoreload

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0137.html




Mesoscale Discussion 0137
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0755 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

Areas affected...south central through southeast Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 11...

Valid 190055Z - 190230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 11
continues.

SUMMARY...Storms will continue to pose a threat for isolated large
hail and damaging wind gusts next couple hours primarily from a
portion of south central through southeast Texas.

DISCUSSION...Storms that developed earlier this afternoon are in the
process of evolving into a cluster with embedded supercells from
south central through southeast TX. Storms will continue east next
couple hours. However, 00Z RAOBS from Shreveport and Lake Charles
show a modest capping inversion near 800 mb suggesting increased
surface-based convective inhibition with onset of nocturnal cooling.
Thus while the storms will continue to pose a severe threat next
couple hours, a weakening trend will probably commence by 03Z.

..Dial.. 03/19/2018

...Please see http://www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...

[unome]

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/af ... 1803190119

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
819 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2018

TXZ164-177>179-199-200-190200-
San Jacinto TX-Walker TX-Liberty TX-Polk TX-Montgomery TX-Trinity TX-
819 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2018

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 819 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Onalaska to 6 miles southwest of Conroe.
Movement was east at 30 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Conroe, Cleveland, Willis, Livingston, Shepherd, Panorama Village,
Onalaska, Cut And Shoot, New Waverly, Coldspring, Point Blank,
Goodrich, North Cleveland, Lake Livingston State Park, West
Livingston, Lake Conroe Dam, Oakhurst, Tarkington Prairie and
Evergreen.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
southeastern Texas.

[unome]

NWS HGX is rockin' it on Twitter

https://twitter.com/NWSHouston

[DoctorMu]

The worst of the cells just passed north of Conroe and Cleveland.

So no show tonight for The Woodlands and south. The second cell brought us another 2-3 min of hail, but it is collapsing near Huntsville. The first cell is still raging near Livingston. Not quite quarter size in round 2 - no damage to cars and roof fortunately. There's some minor structural damage closer to Texas A&M.

[Cromagnum]

Amazing how February it rained nearly every single day and in March it has not rained at all so far outside of a spit and a sprinkle down here. Could use a quick 0.25 inch here and there to keep things happy.

[jasons2k]

Amazing how February it rained nearly every single day and in March it has not rained at all so far outside of a spit and a sprinkle down here. Could use a quick 0.25 inch here and there to keep things happy.

You got your wish. No rain here for 3 weeks, going on 4. It’s drying-up fast and we need some rain for the plants. Come this summer folks will be wishing we had a wet spring.

[Cromagnum]

It dried up enough that I could finally get some yardwork in. Battling lawn fungus all over my St Augustine due to February though. It's definitely feast or famine.

[tireman4]

Although no worries here, folks in Alabama might be on edge today.

[srainhoutx]

Keeping an eye on next Monday and Tuesday for another potential severe weather event impacting portions of our Region. The ingredients necessary for severe thunderstorms are showing up in the longer range ensemble scheme with a rather deep Western trough dropping a rather strong upper air disturbance into Northern Mexico/Arizona/New Mexico/West Texas. Dryline boundary across the Permian Basin/Edwards Plateau with plenty of deep Gulf of Mexico moisture look available. We will need to monitor any capping issues that created a forecasting challenge yesterday for areas to our N and W. Unfortunately for those in the Brazos Valley and across portions of our Northern areas such as Madisonville/Huntsville on toward Lake Livingston, the capping inversion eroded and severe storms blossomed with hail the size of baseballs and severe thunderstorm straight line winds of 70 MPH+ causing a lot of damage.

[srainhoutx]

The afternoon Updated Precipitation Forecast for Day 6 to 10 and Day 8 to 14 suggests wet weather may return as we end March and begin April.

[srainhoutx]

The overnight ECMWF and GEFS Ensembles continue to advertise a pattern early/mid next week conducive of developing some rather wide spread rainfall with the possibility of heavy thunderstorms as a deep Western trough taps into some
Eastern Pacific moisture and abundant moisture off the Gulf overhead. While it is too soon to know the exact details of exactly how much rainfall may occur, other than the Canadian model which blasts the cold front offshore, the ensemble mean suggest a stationary frontal boundary may be the most likely solution this far out. We will watch the carefully throughout the rest of the week into the weekend and 'fine tune' the forecast of what our next week sensible weather may bring.

[sau27]

Its still quite a ways out, but those deep digging troughs this time of year make me nervous

[BlueJay]

Today is the vernal equinox. Spring is officially here!

[Katdaddy]

Perfect SE TX weather for the 1st day of Spring 2018. The Spring Equinox arrived at 11:15AM this morning. Blue skies, temps in the upper 60s & low 70s, humidity in the upper 20s & low 30s, and dew points in the upper 30s this evening……..the definition of Chamber of Commerce weather for it gets no better.

[CrashTestDummy]

The wind was cold this afternoon if you were sitting in the shade. Otherwise a nice day. Hoping for similar weather with no wind tomorrow so I can fly my drone in sunny weather.

[DoctorMu]

Amazing how February it rained nearly every single day and in March it has not rained at all so far outside of a spit and a sprinkle down here. Could use a quick 0.25 inch here and there to keep things happy.

You got your wish. No rain here for 3 weeks, going on 4. It’s drying-up fast and we need some rain for the plants. Come this summer folks will be wishing we had a wet spring.

Sunday's severe storms brought an inch of rain and 2-3 inch hail. Weather cuts both ways in Texas!

[DoctorMu]

Perfect SE TX weather for the 1st day of Spring 2018. The Spring Equinox arrived at 11:15AM this morning. Blue skies, temps in the upper 60s & low 70s, humidity in the upper 20s & low 30s, and dew points in the upper 30s this evening……..the definition of Chamber of Commerce weather for it gets no better.

Another Amazing day. Bottle it up.

[Katdaddy]

Ready for another beautiful and slightly warmer SE TX weather day!

[srainhoutx]

What a pleasant 46F this morning in NW Harris County. Major storms on the West Coast and East Coast mean Texas is Ridge City for the next couple of days. No real chance of any rainfall until possibly next Tuesday through Friday as a very slow moving storm system organizes across the Southern Rockies and Northern Mexico. Fingers crossed we can get at least some rain to was away the pollen.