MARCH 2018 - Pleasant Good Friday/Easter Weekend Ahead

[ticka1]

Fast approaching is Rodeo time. Will it be cold and wet? Rainy and warm? Or will they have nice spring weather? What are long range models hinting at?

[srainhoutx]

NWSCPC‏Verified account @NWSCPC · 1h1 hour ago
Odds are tilted towards warm and dry conditions in our forecast for March through May from California through the Southern Plains, which could intensify drought concerns for the region. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... php?lead=1 …

[snowman65]

I do believe spring has sprung! Time to put out the weed and feed.

[srainhoutx]

The Updated CFSv2 Weekly Outlooks suggest more "colder" air may arrive after the first week of March.

[Texaspirate11]

It always seems to rain when the Trail riders come into town....

[srainhoutx]

It also seems we have a cold shot during the Rodeo as well. This year may be no different.

[DoctorMu]

It also seems we have a cold shot during the Rodeo as well. This year may be no different.

That's often the case, stretching into the first part of Spring Break time. Late winter La Nina busting quite possible.


Bring back some NW flow!

[harp]

If we are going to get a cold snap in early March, it still isn't showing up on the operational GFS.

[srainhoutx]

A quick update on what early March Weather may bring. Our Teleconnection Indices suggest a significant Northern Hemispheric Pattern change may be lurking with an extremely negative Arctic Oscillation and an extremely negative North Atlantic Oscillation suggesting a Bridge to Bridge Blocking Regime impacting North America. The GEFS Ensembles are 'sniffing out' this pattern change that may bring a return of "colder" weather across much of North America including where we live in Texas. It's Rodeo time in Houston and I expect both chili and chilly weather may be in the cards...

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02222018 00Z GEFS gfs-ens_z500a_namer_52.png

02222018 00Z GEFS 306gfs-ens_T2ma_namer_52.png

[snowman65]

The Updated CFSv2 Weekly Outlooks suggest more "colder" air may arrive after the first week of March.

oh great...looks like more warm and muggy and rainy because that thing hasnt been accurate that far out since december.

[srainhoutx]

I continue to see the return of chilly and possibly wet weather the first full week of March in the longer range GEFS Ensemble schemes. The Teleconnection Indices continue to advertise a extremely negative Arctic Oscillation and extremely negative North Atlantic Oscillation as a result of the Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event that happen last week. This sort of Northern Hemispheric Blocking pattern is capable of ushering in much colder air across a large expanse of North America including Texas.

[srainhoutx]

We might need to keep those jackets handy as the Climate Prediction Center Day 8 to 14 Outlook suggests below normal temperatures and slightly above normal precipitation along the Texas Coast.

[DoctorMu]

We might need to keep those jackets handy as the Climate Prediction Center Day 8 to 14 Outlook suggests below normal temperatures and slightly above normal precipitation along the Texas Coast.

Arctic at record warmth (up to 40°F above normal) and cold air displaced throughout the northern hemisphere. Our turn?

[snowman65]

Im not even seeing anything below 50 for the first half of March....this is the strangest winter I can recall in my 51 years.

[jasons2k]

Nice discussion, and first time I have seen a hashtag in an AFD discussion. Times are changing...

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
524 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2018

.DISCUSSION...
A warm/humid day is expected across SE TX today as we await the
arrival of the next cold front late tonight/early Thurs morning.
Isolated showers/thunderstorms will be possible by the afternoon
across mainly the northern half of the CWA as this boundary app-
roaches from NCTX. The bulk of the activity associated with this
system will likely be concentrated along the front (or prefront-
al trough) itself. Given the cap already in place/better support
aloft north of the area/limited instabilities, scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms are expected with FROPA.

Weak upper ridging along with building surface high pressure de-
veloping in the wake of the front should give us fairly seasonal
temps/lower humidities through the end of this week. The weekend
forecast still looks to be in flux as onshore winds return along
with low-level moisture. POPS set to return to the area in earn-
est by Sun as low-level winds strengthen and disturbances in the
re-established SW flow aloft approach from the WSW. Rain chances
should continue through Mon/Mon night as the next cold front be-
gins to trek down from the Southern Plains. Thereafter, not that
much confidence with what happens next as long-range models keep
waffling. #SpringHasSprung 41

[Katdaddy]

The cool front is moving across SE TX this morning with only a narrow line of showers mainly N of Houston. This front will push off the coast today and usher in very nice cooler and drier weather with clearing skies. Spring has sprung.

[BlueJay]

What a lovely March 1st! I would say March is coming in like a lamb.

[srainhoutx]

Looks like a chance for some showers and possibly some thunderstorms Sunday though next Tuesday before a bit stronger cold front arrives ushering in slightly below normal temperatures and a dry spell developing. Fortunately for drought parched California, it looks very unsettled with abundant mountain snow fall and potentially flooding rainfall at lower elevations.

[DoctorMu]

^Yep, potential for our friend NW flow to return and drive out the foggy boggies.

Two fronts Sunday night/Monday am and Tuesday night/Wed Am will stair step temps from seasonal to cooler than normal as we turn the corner on a new week. There's a chance of rain with the first front, but this is largely a chance to dry out a little, and prepare for spring gardening.


No freezing temps expected though late next week. Probably low to mid 40s for lows in HOU by next Thursday morning per 18z GFS run. Climo may say don't plant anything tender just yet...but I'd be surprised if we saw another freeze. There's always a chance a light frost in the Brazos Valley to begin Spring Break time...but that's about it.

[Katdaddy]

A beautiful dry and mild SE TX day on the way. Mostly sunny skies with some high clouds and high temps in the mid 70s. Increasing clouds Saturday with rain chances back in the picture for Saturday night through Tuesday morning.