FEBRUARY 2018 - Roller Coaster WX To End February

[sambucol]

Any ballpark figures on temps for our area on the upper TX coast? Baytown-Liberty? Thanks!

[srainhoutx]

Any ballpark figures on temps for our area on the upper TX coast? Baytown-Liberty? Thanks!

While it is too soon to know with ANY certainty this far out, it my rival or possibly surpass the last Arctic Blast...temperature wise. Do Not Unwrap Your Pipes...

[harp]

Any ballpark figures on temps for our area on the upper TX coast? Baytown-Liberty? Thanks!

While it is too soon to know with ANY certainty this far out, it my rival or possibly surpass the last Arctic Blast...temperature wise. Do Not Unwrap Your Pipes...

Srain, too early to tell if there will be a southern storm track?

[srainhoutx]

Any ballpark figures on temps for our area on the upper TX coast? Baytown-Liberty? Thanks!

While it is too soon to know with ANY certainty this far out, it my rival or possibly surpass the last Arctic Blast...temperature wise. Do Not Unwrap Your Pipes...

Srain, too early to tell if there will be a southern storm track?

Absolutely Harp. Let's give things a look as February begins to see if the sub tropical jet becomes active, disturbances crossing Texas/Louisiana and possibilities of a Coastal Low/trough. We have to get that cold air here first. There are what looks like 3 waves crossing the Pacific that ushers in at least 3 to 4 Arctic fronts with each one progressively stronger as we head into mid February.

[srainhoutx]

The afternoon Updated Day 8 to 14 Outlook suggests colder and wetter weather may be coming.

[harp]

Thank you very much for your response.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Wow, that’s not normal.

[harp]

Wow, that’s not normal.

Many of us have no idea what this means. Can you explain? Thanks.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Wow, that’s not normal.

Many of us have no idea what this means. Can you explain? Thanks.

This is a great article explaining the effects of the MJO on our weather. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/b ... do-we-care

Basically, if you want to see cold this time of the year, phases 7,8,1,2 are great for us. I believe in february, Phase 3 is beneficial as well. That circle in the middle is the “circle of death” or ENSO background State. Given that we are in a La Niña, you would hate for Phases 4-6 to be strong and then crash into the circle of death as we approach our favored phases. The strong signal we are seeing here is something I certainly haven’t seen during Winter months.

That long range MJO forecast is very tasty if you want some cold air in Texas.

[harp]

Thank you.

[DoctorMu]

Clearly the GFS has gone bonkers (highly scientific word) with a 1070+ Arctic High Pressure over Canada. From the Northern Hemisphere view, you can see the coldest air will be on our side of the Globe. Now will those -40F in Montana and near -50F temperatures in Canada plunge all the way down the Plains into Texas? Time will tell.

The 18z is running slower, but maybe colder way out on the 10th...

[sau27]

*For entertainment only* That 12 z GFS. Heyoo!!

[TexasMetBlake]

I think you're the only one excited lol. I've been through this waaaaaaay too many times and more likely than not the models will lose all of it shortly, hints why not a single person has posted about it. I got excited back in December when over 30 model runs in a row showed ice/snow for southeast Texas only to end up without a single sleet pellet or snowflake.

Then again, maybe I'm just old and grumpy.

[sau27]

No, I know. I bet it's gone next run but sure was interesting to see. I'd never post that one run on social media, but I know this is a more discerning weather crowd.

[Belmer]

*For entertainment only* That 12 z GFS. Heyoo!!

Cold (near 32F) at the surface, but very warm aloft...
About 48F at 925mb
About 50F at 850mb
About 37F at 700mb

Temperature aloft doesn't drop below 32F till about 600mb.

I've already seen my fair share of Freezing rain this winter.

[cperk]

I think you're the only one excited lol. I've been through this waaaaaaay too many times and more likely than not the models will lose all of it shortly, hints why not a single person has posted about it. I got excited back in December when over 30 model runs in a row showed ice/snow for southeast Texas only to end up without a single sleet pellet or snowflake.

Then again, maybe I'm just old and grumpy.

The 18Z GFS shows a winter storm again.

[don]

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_36.png

0z still onboard, Not getting excited yet, I would like to see the other models get onboard first... but all day today the GFS has been consistent on a winter storm next Monday/Tuesday fwiw.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

GFS shows back to back winter storms the first 2 weeks of February... cold is coming, we just need the precip in place

[redneckweather]

Latest GFS says what frozen precip? lol I feel pretty darn confident we have seen our winter excitement this winter season. Days are getting longer and the jasmine will be blooming mid February. Come on Spring time!

[cperk]

Latest GFS says what frozen precip? lol I feel pretty darn confident we have seen our winter excitement this winter season. Days are getting longer and the jasmine will be blooming mid February. Come on Spring time!

Just a gut feeling,but i think you're wrong on this one.