FEBRUARY 2018 - Roller Coaster WX To End February

[BlueJay]

srain keeps hinting that February will include more of this real wintery weather. Let's find out.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Two winter weather events in February for SE TX

[harp]

If the arctic reloads and comes south, will there be a southern storm track with it? I know it's too soon to tell, I just thought I would throw that out there.

[srainhoutx]

Not going to spend a great deal of time on the February Outlook the next few days, but I am seeing some interesting 'hints' at many levels that certainly could offer potential for much colder air arriving near February 7th or so. As we know our atmosphere is connected to so many different features at multiple levels and the features offer clues to what our sensible weather may bring in the long range. I continue to see the MJO inducing the strongest tropical forcing we have seen this winter in the Western Pacific as of today. The ECMWF suggests a move into Phase 7, possibly Phase 8 as we begin February. The Teleconnection Indices suggest a very negative WPO meaning a big Bering Sea/Arctic Circle Ridge and a tanking EPO (Alaska/Yukon Ridge) developing with the possibilities of a Greenland Blocking Ridge as well. Other features are trending toward the possibility of Stratospheric Warming as well as a possible split in the Polar Vortex which has been very stable so far the winter. That mean that all levels from the Stratosphere to the Troposphere may be working together in the days ahead. For those following the guidance, stick to the Ensembles the next week or so to look for signs of the upcoming pattern. Those will give a more realistic understanding of what the pattern may be capable of versus looking at the every 6 hour GFS and even every 12 hour ECMWF.

[don]

CMC for the past few runs has been consistently cutting off a low around the beginning of February, Something to watch as the CMC has been good this season at detecting storms in the long range, it detected the 3 winter weather events we've had this season before the Euro or GFS.And keep in mind we don't have to have a very cold airmass to get a winter storm,in fact, the air mass being too cold tends to work against us sometimes because of the suppression of the storm track.

[srainhoutx]

The overnight Ensemble package continues to advertise the first weekend in February could be rather chilly. Still way too soon to know the 'finer details', but many of the indicators we look to could to suggest much colder Arctic Air may well return to Canada and the Great Plains into Mexico.

01232018 00Z 240 ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.png

01232018 00Z 240 ecmwf-ens_T850a_nhem_11.png

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01232018 AO ao_sprd2.gif

[tireman4]

Please use this map for entertainment purposes only, but boy those deep shades of purple...nice..

[snowman65]

Please use this map for entertainment purposes only, but boy those deep shades of purple...nice..

I like purple

[snowman65]

Can someone tell me how to read this chart (in a semi-understandable way)..lol

[don]

0z Euro is very interesting...

[srainhoutx]

Can someone tell me how to read this chart (in a semi-understandable way)..lol

In very simple terms, these are various oscillations (Western Pacific, North Atlantic, Pacific North American and Eastern Pacific) or Telecommunications Indices that give clues as to what our sensible weather may bring in the longer range. The Western Pacific Oscillation is predicted to be very negative suggesting strong Ridging into the Bering Sea/ Arctic Circle indicated by the deep red shades in the 00Z ECMWF EPS. The Eastern Pacific Oscillation is negative, but not as much suggesting a Eastern Pacific Ridge offshore of the California/Western Canada Pacific Coast extending slightly into Alaska. The Pacific North American Oscillation in also negative which assists in developing an Upper trough indicated by the blue shading in the ECMWF EPS (ensembles). Remember there are about 50 individual ensemble members in the ECMWF, so color shading is basically smoothed out to reflect the various differences between the individual ensemble member solutions.

[srainhoutx]

0z Euro is very interesting...

Now if the Global models begin converging...say around next Tuesday on that type solution, we may have something to talk about. 4 snow events in SE Texas in around 8 weeks? We will see...

[srainhoutx]

The morning Updated Climate Prediction Center Day 11+ Analogs are suggesting a cross Polar flow with a very deep Upper Trough situated across the Central portions of North America. I noticed the deterministic GFS is indicating some -50F readings across portions of Canada approaching -30F to -40F along the US/Canadian Border around the second week in February.

[tireman4]

Please use this for entertainment purposes only. I want to say, just by the colors on the map, ( to quote the immortal Dick Enberg), Oh my.....again, entertainment purposes only.

[snowman65]

Technically, it's within 10 days so it bares watching...but yeah....Texas in winter has become the new "show me" state...hehe

[DoctorMu]

0z Euro is very interesting...

Interesting indeed!

[DoctorMu]

Please use this for entertainment purposes only. I want to say, just by the colors on the map, ( to quote the immortal Dick Enberg), Oh my.....again, entertainment purposes only.

Are you not entertained?!

[srainhoutx]

Watching the February 7th or so timeframe carefully. If you notice the ECMWF EPS and GEFS Super Ensembles are suggesting that deep/cold full latitude upper trough digging a bit to the SW of Texas. The 06Z GFS this morning showed a meandering closed cutoff Upper Low near the Baja. If the cold air is in place as we think it may be during that timeframe, eyebrows will be raised if the trends continue.

DUYln-rWAAEL8MU.jpg

01252018 CPC Day 11+ Analogs 500hgt_comp_sup814.gif

gfs_z500_vort_namer_51.png

[tireman4]

Entertainment purposes only, but Wxman 57 posted this on another channel...so enjoy the purple...

[srainhoutx]

Clearly the GFS has gone bonkers (highly scientific word) with a 1070+ Arctic High Pressure over Canada. From the Northern Hemisphere view, you can see the coldest air will be on our side of the Globe. Now will those -40F in Montana and near -50F temperatures in Canada plunge all the way down the Plains into Texas? Time will tell.