First Freeze of the ~Winter of 2016

[StormOne]

Overall, cold-lovers are lucky that the North American continent has such peculiar geography (nothing to block cold air moving south); all it takes is an east-west mountain, or a moderating water body where the plains are, or even a permanent SE ridge, and then Houston (and the rest of the coastal South) would basically be having tropical climates.

Good thing every one of those scenarios are literally impossible!

[A.V.]

Good thing every one of those scenarios are literally impossible!

No, the SE ridge can indeed become permanent over Texas and the entire South. And a geographic barrier in the plains can always be built:
http://motherboard.vice.com/read/a-phys ... he-midwest

[A.V.]

#arcticfail

[StormOne]

#arcticfail

Not so fast

[Ounce]

Three people have successfully picked Dec 11-Dec 20 as the First Freeze of the ~Winter of 2016.

The NWS at IAH reported 32 degrees at 12:53 a.m., this morning. In fact, at 6:53 a.m. it was 30 degrees.

Sunday at 8:53 a.m., the NWS reported 34 as the morning's low, so I wouldn't be surprised for today's 30 degrees to slip a little more. Sunday's low temperature was 33 degrees at 11:53 p.m.

[A.V.]

Not so fast

Still a fail. This arctic mass, which brought intense, record breaking cold to the Midwest (once in a lifetime), and was basically a direct shot into Texas, could barely drop Houston to freezing levels; Galveston, Lake Jackson, etc still remain without a freeze. Once December passes, the axis of cold shifts east, and the arctic blasts won't be Texas centered. On top of that, a warm pattern commences. Thus, this looks like it will be the last cold blast of this caliber for the season. Even with this cold, temps still haven't been below 30F; Houston is about to have another zone 10 winter.

[srainhoutx]

Not so fast

Still a fail. This arctic mass, which brought intense, record breaking cold to the Midwest (once in a lifetime), and was basically a direct shot into Texas, could barely drop Houston to freezing levels; Galveston, Lake Jackson, etc still remain without a freeze. Once December passes, the axis of cold shifts east, and the arctic blasts won't be Texas centered. On top of that, a warm pattern commences. Thus, this looks like it will be the last cold blast of this caliber for the season. Even with this cold, temps still haven't been below 30F; Houston is about to have another zone 10 winter.

Complete hogwash and you've been trolling other venues with this exact assumption. We can no way determine what the sensible weather will bring beyond 3-5 days and it is foolhardy to assume that before SE Texas enters our most climatological favored period of January into February what the forecast may hold.

Code: Select all

Weather Research Center 


Houston Ice Storms [1960-2011] 

YEAR DATE REMARKS 
1961 January 25 Freezing Rain/Glazing 
1965 February 24 Glaze 
1968 January 8 Glaze 
1970 January 18-19 Glaze 
1971 January 7-8 Glaze 
1973 January 9-12 Glaze 
1973 February 8-9 Glaze 
1976 November 28-29 Glaze 
1977 January 2  Glaze 
1978 January 21-22 Glaze 
1982 January 12-14 Glaze 
1983 December 22-23 Glaze 
1983 December 26 Glaze 
1985 January 3 Glaze 
1985 January 12-13 Glaze 
1985 January 31 - February 1 Glaze 
1988 February 11 Glaze 
1989 February 4-8 Glaze 
1989 December 22 Glaze 
1990 December 22-23 Glaze 
1994 February 8-9 Glaze 
1997 January 12-14 Glaze 
2007 January 16-17 Freezing Rain/Glaze 
2011 February 4 Freezing Rain/Glaze 
Weather Research Center
5104 Caroline St. Houston, Texas 77004
 (713) 529-3076

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Houston Snow
 
YEAR DATE Inches 
1895 February 14-15 20  
1912 January 12 0.1 
1918 January 11 0.2 
1925 December 28 0.4 
1926 January 26 0.8 
1929 December 21-22 2.5 
1932 March 10-11 0.8 
1940 January 22 3.0 
1944 December 10 Trace 
1949 January 30 2.6 
1958 February 12  Trace 
1960 February 12 4.4 
1961 January 25 Trace 
1961 December 13 Trace 
1963 January 14 Trace 
1963 February 12 Trace 
1964 February 21 Trace 
1973 January 11 2.0 
1973 February 9-10 1.4 
1973 February 17-18 1.4 
1978 January 19-20 0.4 
1980 February 2 1.4 
1981 January 19 Trace 
1981 February 11 Trace 
1985 January 2 1.0 
1985 February 1 0.3 
1989 February 6 Trace 
1989 December 22 1.7 
1994 February 12 0.1 
1995 January 2 Trace 
1996 December 17 Trace 
2004 December 24 Trace 
2008 December 10 1.4" 
2009 December 4 1.0" 
2010 February 23 Trace" 
Weather Research Center
5104 Caroline St. Houston, Texas 77004
 (713) 529-3076

[A.V.]

Complete hogwash and you've been trolling other venues with this exact assumption. We can no way determine what the sensible weather will bring beyond 3-5 days and it is foolhardy to assume that before SE Texas enters our most climatological favored period of January into February what the forecast may hold.

Code: Select all

Weather Research Center 


Houston Ice Storms [1960-2011] 

YEAR DATE REMARKS 
1961 January 25 Freezing Rain/Glazing 
1965 February 24 Glaze 
1968 January 8 Glaze 
1970 January 18-19 Glaze 
1971 January 7-8 Glaze 
1973 January 9-12 Glaze 
1973 February 8-9 Glaze 
1976 November 28-29 Glaze 
1977 January 2  Glaze 
1978 January 21-22 Glaze 
1982 January 12-14 Glaze 
1983 December 22-23 Glaze 
1983 December 26 Glaze 
1985 January 3 Glaze 
1985 January 12-13 Glaze 
1985 January 31 - February 1 Glaze 
1988 February 11 Glaze 
1989 February 4-8 Glaze 
1989 December 22 Glaze 
1990 December 22-23 Glaze 
1994 February 8-9 Glaze 
1997 January 12-14 Glaze 
2007 January 16-17 Freezing Rain/Glaze 
2011 February 4 Freezing Rain/Glaze 
Weather Research Center
5104 Caroline St. Houston, Texas 77004
 (713) 529-3076

Code: Select all

Houston Snow
 
YEAR DATE Inches 
1895 February 14-15 20  
1912 January 12 0.1 
1918 January 11 0.2 
1925 December 28 0.4 
1926 January 26 0.8 
1929 December 21-22 2.5 
1932 March 10-11 0.8 
1940 January 22 3.0 
1944 December 10 Trace 
1949 January 30 2.6 
1958 February 12  Trace 
1960 February 12 4.4 
1961 January 25 Trace 
1961 December 13 Trace 
1963 January 14 Trace 
1963 February 12 Trace 
1964 February 21 Trace 
1973 January 11 2.0 
1973 February 9-10 1.4 
1973 February 17-18 1.4 
1978 January 19-20 0.4 
1980 February 2 1.4 
1981 January 19 Trace 
1981 February 11 Trace 
1985 January 2 1.0 
1985 February 1 0.3 
1989 February 6 Trace 
1989 December 22 1.7 
1994 February 12 0.1 
1995 January 2 Trace 
1996 December 17 Trace 
2004 December 24 Trace 
2008 December 10 1.4" 
2009 December 4 1.0" 
2010 February 23 Trace" 
Weather Research Center
5104 Caroline St. Houston, Texas 77004
 (713) 529-3076

Go back through this thread, and look at the map I posted. On average, cold temps tend to be focused eastward in the US by January, whereas most of Texas has been through the coldest by December. Occurences of winter precip in certain years does not change that fact.

[A.V.]

The city is very large, so one corner may have had an ice storm, whereas another area just had cold rain. Furthermore, winter precip doesn't necessarily mean coldest temps. In Jan 2007, for instance, Hobby did not freeze for the entire month, and IAH only went down to 32F.

No temps at Hobby below 20F since the end of the 80s. Even this mega arctic blast still failed to bring temps below 32F. The climate is becoming milder and milder.

[A.V.]

I post again this fantastic map, which shows the climate warming up:
http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/sites/r ... -31-hi.jpg

[mcheer23]

Lol @ A.V go get a hobby or something, you're obviously not a good troll.

[GBinGrimes]

Mcheer23, you beat me to the punch. AV's feet must be getting tired...been on the soapbox a long, long time.

[Andrew]

Mcheer23, you beat me to the punch. AV's feet must be getting tired...been on the soapbox a long, long time.

We took care of him

[StormOne]

Not so fast

Still a fail. This arctic mass, which brought intense, record breaking cold to the Midwest (once in a lifetime), and was basically a direct shot into Texas, could barely drop Houston to freezing levels; Galveston, Lake Jackson, etc still remain without a freeze. Once December passes, the axis of cold shifts east, and the arctic blasts won't be Texas centered. On top of that, a warm pattern commences. Thus, this looks like it will be the last cold blast of this caliber for the season. Even with this cold, temps still haven't been below 30F; Houston is about to have another zone 10 winter.

Look at my location. I live in the Midwest. It was very cold, but not record breaking. So you can't pull the once-in-a-lifetime excuse on me, because this cold happens every Winter here, and I'm sure I'll feel it once or twice more this year. And what warm pattern? January is most always the coldest Winter month of SE TX. Sometimes even February is colder than December. Winter is far from over. Also, accept it. Houston is not North Dakota. Below 20 is a very rare occurrence at both HOU and IAH, and it always has been.

Also, that map you posted is wrong about us, and even then it is very general. Guys! Our lowest temperatures over the next 30 years are going to be between 21 and 40 except for oddball years! Unbelievable!

Edit: I see he has been fenced by a mod. Thank you to whoever did it. Back to serious stuff, like Christmas.