First Freeze of the ~Winter of 2016

[Ounce]

At Srain's suggestion, when do you think the first freeze at IAH will be? One guess per person with plenty of options from November 2016 to February 2017. And post your guess as well.

Maybe even the pro mets will step in with their SWAG.

Extra credit for when it will snow at IAH in the same time period, but you'll have to post that.

[wxman57]

I picked Nov. 20th in our office pool in 2015 and was dead-on. I remember a freeze in October (1991, I think). Had a bike ride that morning and it was dang cold. Typical first freeze is the first week of December. I have a spreadsheet that I use for the office contest that goes back decades. It's useful for identifying trends. I'm going with Dec. 12th at 5:45am.

[DoctorMu]

IAH: 12/6

CLL: 11/28


Hope I'm wrong, but suspect an early cold snap or two, then not another frost until January.

[Ptarmigan]

I picked Nov. 20th in our office pool in 2015 and was dead-on. I remember a freeze in October (1991, I think). Had a bike ride that morning and it was dang cold. Typical first freeze is the first week of December. I have a spreadsheet that I use for the office contest that goes back decades. It's useful for identifying trends. I'm going with Dec. 12th at 5:45am.

There was no freezing temperature in October 1991. There were freezing temperature in October 1989 and 1993.

[A.V.]

Frostless. Hobby only went down to the 34F last winter. Perfection.

[Cromagnum]

Im betting on no freeze this year again. I sure hope we dont have another Christmas in the 80s with near 100% humidity though.

[Ounce]

Sorry for not including a 'nah-gonna-happen' option. Guess that would defeat the purpose of the title of the thread.

I picked the Jan 11-20 period because I want it to be cold (and dry) when I run the marathon. Cloudy, calm, and 40 or clear, 5-10 mph wind, and 27 would be my best desire for the start of the race.

[Ounce]

As of this writing, 3 people picked Dec 1-10 and 2 have picked Dec 11-20. Those that haven't voted can look golden by picking the right day.

[BlueJay]

December 9, 2016

[tireman4]

I am with Blue Jay, December 9th

[Andrew]

Looks like Wxman is going to be close again (assuming the December 9th date occurs like predicted).

[tireman4]

Hang on..hang on...I am still in play with the 9th..

[A.V.]

Just watch, Houston will be frostless. If not at Bush, then definitely at Hobby.

[StormOne]

Just watch, Houston will be frostless. If not at Bush, then definitely at Hobby.

Not so fast my friend. This Winter could be an interesting one. Already has been up here- Negatives possible Saturday night with dangerous wind chills. The month of December is not the only cold month, January and February are typically the "cold season" as well.

[A.V.]

Just watch, Houston will be frostless. If not at Bush, then definitely at Hobby.

Not so fast my friend. This Winter could be an interesting one. Already has been up here- Negatives possible Saturday night with dangerous wind chills. The month of December is not the only cold month, January and February are typically the "cold season" as well.

No, see, these arctic fronts can come in with these cold days and blustery winds, no doubt... but the low temperatures just don't bottom out much. I've seen it time and time again; they call for a freeze, only for temperatures to be only in the lower 40s. They just don't take into account the oceanic return flow that often finds its way into SE Texas after a cold front (either from the Gulf or the E-Pac); this return flow generates the high clouds that trap heat, and hold temps steady. Like with this Saturday's front... lets say temps truly do top out in the mid 40s (which I feel is a bit overdone). Watch the lows then be around 38-39F, instead of close to freezing, due to the aspects described above.

December-February provides a window for cold, but the likelihood varies:

- February, basically, is a spring month in Houston; the only true reliable window for cold is during the early part of the month.

- December mostly starts out warm, and cold patterns usually come into play around the Winter solstice or so; the cold this year is a bit earlier than it has been in previous years.

- January is the only month that is solidly is within the window for cold in Houston... and even then, you can see that past the first week/half of the month, the worst of winter tends to have passed for the city. Thus, if the city hasn't had a freeze by that time, the chances of such temperature decrease exponentially for the season:
https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/ ... a-20141112

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Just watch, Houston will be frostless. If not at Bush, then definitely at Hobby.

Not so fast my friend. This Winter could be an interesting one. Already has been up here- Negatives possible Saturday night with dangerous wind chills. The month of December is not the only cold month, January and February are typically the "cold season" as well.

No, see, these arctic fronts can come in with these cold days and blustery winds, no doubt... but the low temperatures just don't bottom out much. I've seen it time and time again; they call for a freeze, only for temperatures to be only in the lower 40s. They just don't take into account the oceanic return flow that often finds its way into SE Texas after a cold front (either from the Gulf or the E-Pac); this return flow generates the high clouds that trap heat, and hold temps steady. Like with this Saturday's front... lets say temps truly do top out in the mid 40s (which I feel is a bit overdone). Watch the lows then be around 38-39F, instead of close to freezing, due to the aspects described above.

December-February provides a window for cold, but the likelihood varies:

- February, basically, is a spring month in Houston; the only true reliable window for cold is during the early part of the month.
- December mostly starts out warm, and cold patterns usually come into play around the Winter solstice or so; the cold this year is a bit earlier than it has been in previous years.

- January is the only month that is solidly is within the window for cold in Houston... and even then, you can see that past the first week/half of the month, the worst of winter tends to have passed for the city. Thus, if the city hasn't had a freeze by that time, the chances of such temperature decrease exponentially for the season:
https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/ ... a-20141112

Sigh.... The bolded above couldn't be any further from the truth. Our coldest and most wintry month is February. Heck, March has even brought Winter weather to us a few times in the last decade.

[StormOne]

Just watch, Houston will be frostless. If not at Bush, then definitely at Hobby.

Not so fast my friend. This Winter could be an interesting one. Already has been up here- Negatives possible Saturday night with dangerous wind chills. The month of December is not the only cold month, January and February are typically the "cold season" as well.

No, see, these arctic fronts can come in with these cold days and blustery winds, no doubt... but the low temperatures just don't bottom out much. I've seen it time and time again; they call for a freeze, only for temperatures to be only in the lower 40s. They just don't take into account the oceanic return flow that often finds its way into SE Texas after a cold front (either from the Gulf or the E-Pac); this return flow generates the high clouds that trap heat, and hold temps steady. Like with this Saturday's front... lets say temps truly do top out in the mid 40s (which I feel is a bit overdone). Watch the lows then be around 38-39F, instead of close to freezing, due to the aspects described above.

December-February provides a window for cold, but the likelihood varies:

- February, basically, is a spring month in Houston; the only true reliable window for cold is during the early part of the month.

- December mostly starts out warm, and cold patterns usually come into play around the Winter solstice or so; the cold this year is a bit earlier than it has been in previous years.

- January is the only month that is solidly is within the window for cold in Houston... and even then, you can see that past the first week/half of the month, the worst of winter tends to have passed for the city. Thus, if the city hasn't had a freeze by that time, the chances of such temperature decrease exponentially for the season:
https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/ ... a-20141112

There are also many times where upper 30s look likely then a freeze happens. Montgomery stated what I was gonna say about the February statement, so I'll ignore that.

A freeze will happen in December. This Winter is just too juicy for a freeze to not happen down there now. Heck, this is bringing us wind chills of -30 tomorrow. Just because we had one continentally warm Winter last year doesn't mean that's the way it is from here on out. Most of the country, even the West Coast, is seeing below normal temperatures. It's time SE TX gets its fair share, and that should start tomorrow night.

[A.V.]

Sigh.... The bolded above couldn't be any further from the truth. Our coldest and most wintry month is February.

The map I posted above, along with the weather average charts, show how off you are with this post. January (first half of the month) is clearly the coldest, most wintry time of the season. February, on the other hand, is the warmest on average for all the winter months (and has the lowest occurrence of freezes, and warmest average absolute minima), and, for all intents and purposes, is a spring month.

Heck, March has even brought Winter weather to us a few times in the last decade.

Average last frost for Houston ranges from early-mid February; at the same time, considering that mid January is the average coldest point of the year, the chances of seeing a freeze for the season, if freezing temps haven't already been reached, is quite slim.

So, like I said, January is the only winter month that is solidly within the window for cold in Houston. Only the early and latter portions of February and December (respectively) are solidly in the reliable cold window; outside of those ranges (like with the month of March), the chance is too slim to be reliable.

There are also many times where upper 30s look likely then a freeze happens. Montgomery stated what I was gonna say about the February statement, so I'll ignore that.

Less common than the opposite, from my experience.

A freeze will happen in December. This Winter is just too juicy for a freeze to not happen down there now. Heck, this is bringing us wind chills of -30 tomorrow. Just because we had one continentally warm Winter last year doesn't mean that's the way it is from here on out. Most of the country, even the West Coast, is seeing below normal temperatures. It's time SE TX gets its fair share, and that should start tomorrow night.

Well, I'll believe it when I see it.

[StormOne]

Well, I'll believe it when I see it.

Good god. Last Winter is the first time in IAH's existence that a freeze was not recorded. Once again, last Winter was warm across our entire continent. This Winter is already producing better numbers than last Winter, and we are not technically even in the Winter season yet. Just because Houston was freeze-less last year, doesn't mean Houston will never see a freeze again. Freezes not happening until after Christmas is not necessarily "rare" for Houston.

[A.V.]

Good god. Last Winter is the first time in IAH's existence that a freeze was not recorded. Once again, last Winter was warm across our entire continent.

Actually, IAH recorded two freezes during Jan 2016; however, temps were no lower than 32F. Houston Hobby, on the other hand, was frost-less (and it wasn't the first time).

Last winter saw some pretty cold temps for the Eastern US (especially the Northeast); Texas just happened to avoid the brunt of the blasts.

This Winter is already producing better numbers than last Winter, and we are not technically even in the Winter season yet.

I thought it was established that astronomical winter ≠ meteorological winter. Even at that, the December has been colder than normal thus far (meaning it isn't a December that has a high chance of happening). Forecasts show a more zonal flow taking place for January across the US; if that lasts beyond the first half of the month, then one can say with confidence that Houston will not see a freeze for the winter season (based on what I've shown with my map).

Just because Houston was freeze-less last year, doesn't mean Houston will never see a freeze again. Freezes not happening until after Christmas is not necessarily "rare" for Houston.

I see that the climate is becoming less and less supportive of true cold, meaning a return to how the climate naturally should be for the latitude. Florida is the state first experiencing the effects, and it will soon spread across the entire Southern US. USDA hardiness zones are getting warmer and warmer across the South:
http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/sites/r ... -31-hi.jpg

Overall, cold-lovers are lucky that the North American continent has such peculiar geography (nothing to block cold air moving south); all it takes is an east-west mountain, or a moderating water body where the plains are, or even a permanent SE ridge, and then Houston (and the rest of the coastal South) would basically be having tropical climates.