JUNE 2016: Showers/Storms Possible

[mckinne63]

It's like a sauna out there:

https://i.ytimg.com/vi/zY9eN-1rR0o/hqdefault.jpg

That is soooo true! Did some yard work in the early evening hours. Steamy, steamy, steamy! I so dislike sweating.

[djmike]

Can we get an update on todays weather and what we can expect for the upcoming week? Thanks

[Katdaddy]

A tropical morning across the Upper TX Coast with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some areas may receive brief heavy rainfall. Hearing lots of thunder from the storms to the SW in Alvin and Santa Fe. We dry out and warm up next week.

[mckinne63]

Mostly cloudy here in Stafford. Have not seen any rain. Yesterday, it did look like we may get some sprinkles, but nothing materialized. I will take the clouds, keeps the temps down even if it is humid.

[srainhoutx]

For what it's worth, the 12Z European, GFS and Canadian models are suggesting a potential Western Gulf tropical system spinning up late next weekend.

[srainhoutx]

Several of the shorter term meso guidance suggests a Mesoscale Convective System dropping SE from the Hill Country into SE Texas later this evening. With a NW flow aloft around the Upper Ridge to our West, additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible over the next day or two.

[mckinne63]

It's getting quite dark and noisy here in Stafford. I got my swim in before it started. It looks so still outside, but skies are definetly talking.

[Katdaddy]

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHERN WALLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL GRIMES COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN AUSTIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 445 PM CDT

* AT 243 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA.
UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
HEMPSTEAD...PRAIRIE VIEW...WALLER AND PINE ISLAND.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA. THIS
ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL MAKE MINOR FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TURN AROUND...DON`T DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY WHEN YOU
CAN DO SO SAFELY.

[Katdaddy]

To add to Srain's post regarding next weekend. The Brownsville NWS afternoon AFD also mentions the models showing potential development:

Though just beyond the scope of the long-term, the latest GFS and
ECMWF are showing signs of moving a fairly significant surface
low/tropical wave over the western gulf early next week. As far
as the GFS goes, today`s placement of the low over the western
Gulf early next week is a departure well to the southwest of
where this model was showing this feature yesterday. On the ECMWF
side of things, the placement of the feature over the western Gulf
is a noteable northward departure from the model`s previous run.
Either way, confidence is growng in this model solution as both
the GFS and ECMWF now bring it toward/near our neighborhood. If
the feature actually develops even somewhat similarly to today`s
models, it could lead to a noteable heavy rain event for deep
south Texas around the middle of next week.

[Katdaddy]

Very heavy tropical rains on ongoing across Houston metro.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...CENTRAL HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
* UNTIL 530 PM CDT

* AT 328 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED HEAVY RAIN IN THE CLAY ROAD AREA NORTH OF I-10 DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING. UP TO 1 INCH HAS FALLEN IN 20 MINUTES.
* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...JERSEY VILLAGE...HUNTERS CREEK VILLAGE...BUNKER HILL VILLAGE…PINEY POINT VILLAGE...SPRING VALLEY...SPRING BRANCH WEST...SPRING BRANCH NORTH...ADDICKS PARK TEN...NORTHEASTERN ELDRIDGE / WEST OAKS…HEDWIG VILLAGE...HILSHIRE VILLAGE...FAIRBANKS / NORTHWEST CROSSING…GREATER INWOOD...WESTBRANCH...SPRING BRANCH CENTRAL...BRIAR FOREST...SPRING
BRANCH EAST...MID WEST...CARVERDALE AND LANGWOOD.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA. THIS ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL MAKE MINOR FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TURN AROUND...DON`T DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES. PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY WHEN YOU
CAN DO SO SAFELY.

[Katdaddy]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
352 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
WEST CENTRAL HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 545 PM CDT

* AT 351 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. UP TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE
FALLEN. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
WEST UNIVERSITY PLACE...JERSEY VILLAGE...HUNTERS CREEK VILLAGE...
ASTRODOME AREA...SPRING VALLEY...GREATER FIFTH WARD...FOURTH WARD...
NEARTOWN / MONTROSE...SECOND WARD...GREATER EASTWOOD...DOWNTOWN
HOUSTON...GREATER HEIGHTS...NEAR NORTHSIDE HOUSTON...GREENWAY / UPPER
KIRBY AREA...UNIVERSITY PLACE...AFTON OAKS / RIVER OAKS AREA...GREATER
THIRD WARD...SPRING BRANCH NORTH...MIDTOWN HOUSTON AND MEMORIAL
PARK.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TURN AROUND...DON`T DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY WHEN YOU
CAN DO SO SAFELY.

[Katdaddy]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
435 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 630 PM CDT

* AT 434 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE
FALLEN WITHIN THE LAST HOUR. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
SHORTLY.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
PASADENA...NORTHWESTERN BAYTOWN...LA PORTE...DEER PARK...SOUTH HOUSTON...
SEABROOK...GALENA PARK...JACINTO CITY...BARRETT...SOUTH BELT /
ELLINGTON...CHANNELVIEW...GREATER HOBBY AREA...HIGHLANDS...CLOVERLEAF...
NORTHERN CLEAR LAKE...CROSBY...TAYLOR LAKE VILLAGE...EL LAGO...
SHOREACRES AND MORGAN`S POINT.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WARNED AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES COULD OCCUR IN ONE
HOUR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TURN AROUND...DON`T DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY WHEN YOU
CAN DO SO SAFELY.

[Heat Miser]

Today was not quite typical Summer-time weather.

[DoctorMu]

We had a nice shower with 0.63 in of rain IMBY. Anything to push back sprinkler system use! There a meso threatening from Waco tonight on a SE path. Would not mind another early am shower...before some ridging sets in.

Eyes on the Gulf next weekend.

[nuby3]

Very impressive rainfall accumulation rates with the complex drifting southward from Waco . . accumulating more than 3 inches per hour via Doppler . . more than 10 inches has fallen north and east of Waco . . drifting toward SE Texas..

[djmike]

So much for that complex of storms... Might not be as wet as mets thought here in the Beaumont area. Then again, it is still early.

[DoctorMu]

Dewpoint = 77°F

Even though humid air is of course less dense, since water vapor at 18 g/mole has a lower molecular weight than dry O2 (32 g/mole) and N2 (28 g/mole), it's funny how the human brain perceives air in the early summer as thick and soupy. This seems like a warm minestrone.

[srainhoutx]

The afternoon updated Climate Prediction Center Day 6 to 10 Outlook as well as the Day 8+ Analogs suggest more of the same regarding our sensible weather. It is noteworthy that 1979 is now showing up as the top 2 Analogs. Could we see another Claudette like tropical system come July? Time will tell and we will be monitoring carefully.

[Heat Miser]

I sincerely hope not. I lived through that event near the Friendswood Alvin border, and while it was fun as a kid, I have no interest in that now. Although, I believe the power was out longer with Ike Vs. Claudette and Alicia.

[DoctorMu]

The dewpoint is now 78°F...the temp cooled off under 90°F after sunset, but the heat index is still 100°F! It feels like Tampa in August out there.

Dangerous heat indices approaching 105°F tomorrow and Wednesday. Stay cool. Mad dogs and Englishmen...

I'm not going to say I miss the drought, but it's been a decade since the DP has been this high.