JUNE 2016: Showers/Storms Possible

[BlueJay]

I am hopeful that we will have a quiet hurricane season.

[srainhoutx]

The afternoon updated Climate Prediction Center Outlooks suggest no real change in this wet and stormy pattern.

The attachment 610analog.off (4).gif is no longer available

[srainhoutx]

The overnight Global guidance continues to suggest a somewhat active and unsettled pattern as we begin June. The longer range European and GFS schemes are suggesting the possibility of a monsoonal trough developing around the 5th-6th of June across the NW Caribbean and the Bay of Campeche. There are some indications that a broad area of lowering pressure may attempt to organize a surface low, so we may need to monitor for any potential tropical troubles attempting to spin up later next week.

[Texaspirate11]

THE NOAA GODS have spoken

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center outlook for the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season has been released. It will most likely be a near-normal season, but forecast uncertainty in the climate signals that influence the formation of Atlantic storms make predicting this season particularly difficult.

Remember, the outlook cannot tell you if or where the storms will make landfall and what the impacts would be. You should prepare the same, regardless of the seasonal forecast numbers. It only takes one storm hitting you to make it a bad year.
http://www.noaa.gov/near-normal-atlanti ... e-season-m…

[srainhoutx]

The Friday Updated Climate Prediction Center Extended Outlook well into June show no real change in this wet and stormy pattern. The Experimental Week 3 to 4 Outlook paints the same general pattern continuing. It is also noteworthy that the Global guidance suggests some potential tropical troubles later next weekend in the NW Caribbean Sea/Southern Gulf of Mexico. The guidance also suggests a potential stalling boundary across Central Texas next Thursday with the possibility of another heavy rainfall event. Stay tuned folks. We appear to be stuck in a very stubborn pattern.

[BlueJay]

I will appreciate a lovely weekend from June 10 - 12 as we will be hosting many out - of - staters in the Fayette County area. In reading srain's posts, we may need to plan some indoor activities.
I'll stay tuned!

[srainhoutx]

The overnight guidance continues to advertise an active weather pattern developing as we begin June. A slow moving frontal boundary looks to meander across Texas beginning late Wednesday into next weekend. Showers and thunderstorms with another heavy rainfall potential begins to enter our sensible weather forecast Thursday into next Saturday. We will need to monitor the trends early next week for yet another active and unsettled pattern.

Hurricane Season kicks off Wednesday and there continues to be some indications that a monsoonal trough may develop across the NW Caribbean Sea possibly extending into the Southern Gulf in the early days of June. While there are no signs of tropical development, very deep tropical moisture appears to pool across the Western Caribbean Sea and possibly into the Bay of Campeche. It is not uncommon in early June to see a broad area of lowering pressure associated with these monsoonal troughs that can eventually spawn a surface low, so we will continue to monitor that area for any potential tropical troubles that may spin up.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS suggest an additional 2-5 inches of rainfall may be possible, particularly Tuesday into Thursday as we begin June.

[Ptarmigan]

The afternoon updated Climate Prediction Center Outlooks suggest no real change in this wet and stormy pattern.

610analog.off (4).gif

610temp.new (3).gif

610prcp.new (4).gif

814temp.new (4).gif

814prcp.new (5).gif

Some of the analogs are interesting, especially 2004, 2006, and 2007. They had wet summers. 2004 and 2006 had developing El Nino, while 2007 came off of El Nino and becoming La Nina.

[srainhoutx]

The afternoon Global guidance continues to advertise a rather unusual pattern developing during the coming work week. Another Western trough swings through the Southern Rockies while further North along the Polar jetstream a very potent storm system organizes and sends a Canadian front into the Southern Plains. Ahead and along the front, the models suggest showers and thunderstorms may develop with a very moist airmass in place ahead of the rather slow moving frontal boundary. There are indications that a Coastal trough/low may attempt to organize near Brownsville that further raises an eyebrow. While we are several days away from knowing exactly what the sensible weather will be, due to all the recent flooding and our neighbors are suffering from flooded homes, it is worth monitoring the weather trends particularly early next week. Stay tuned and check back for more updates.