JUNE 2016: Showers/Storms Possible

[srainhoutx]

I see at least 7.8 inches up your way Singlmom over the past 24 hours. We really need to monitor developments SW near Matagorda Bay. That activity may train up across portions of Ft Bend, Harris and Montgomery Counties this evening particularly with the storm motion being driven by that pesky upper low West of San Antonio. Unfortunately we have at least a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall into Saturday. Here in NW Harris County the storms are very tropical like dumping heavy rainfall in short order.

[sau27]

Definitely seeing some outflow convergence on the western side of the city, between the beltway and Katy. I think that is probably going to help the storms fill in around the metro area fairly soon. And that is even before the larger scale event starts. Thats just my amateur opinion though.

[djjordan]

My mother in law and my kids mother were flying in to Houston today and got diverted to San Antonio due to weather.... the plan is they are taking off in an hour from San Antonio to Houston .... Crossing my fingers they get to do that. Another part of me says they may just be safer staying the night in San Antonio and trying to finish the trip tomorrow.

Anyways.... we have had wave after wave of Heavy Tropical downpours all afternoon .... then the sun would come out and bake us and then it would start all over again. Raining as I type this right now.

[DoctorMu]

Definitely seeing some outflow convergence on the western side of the city, between the beltway and Katy. I think that is probably going to help the storms fill in around the metro area fairly soon. And that is even before the larger scale event starts. Thats just my amateur opinion though.

As the ULL slowly migrates East it would make sense that new bands would form or associate with those boundaries, with series of cells moving through...in a more tropical pattern probably than what we saw last week. Very interesting... an extratropical upper level land system attempting to mimic a diffuse, but very large, semi-organized tropical depression...

[djjordan]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
536 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN LIBERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 830 PM CDT

* AT 534 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN FROM NEAR JERSEY VILLAGE TO BUSH
INTERCONTINENTAL AIRPORT TO KINGWOOD MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.
UP TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN. RAINFALL RATES OF
AROUND 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL CONTINUE WITH THESE STORMS. FLASH
FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
HUMBLE...KINGWOOD...NORTHSIDE / NORTHLINE...ALDINE...GREATER
GREENSPOINT...SPRING BRANCH NORTH...GREATER HEIGHTS...NEAR NORTHSIDE
HOUSTON...GREATER FIFTH WARD...SPRING BRANCH WEST...EASTERN ADDICKS
PARK TEN...SPRING...CROSBY...ROMAN FOREST...EAST LITTLE YORK /
HOMESTEAD...ACRES HOME...FAIRBANKS / NORTHWEST CROSSING...GREATER
INWOOD...WESTBRANCH AND LAZYBROOK / TIMBERGROVE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS
WELL AS OTHER DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

[wxman57]

The average high at IAH for this time of year is 90 degrees. IAH has yet to reach 90 degrees this year...

[houstonia]

From the Texas Forest Service:

TFS News Header
Incident Alert | Texas A&M Forest Service | Incident Management Team to set up in Fort Bend County

June 2, 2016 — COLLEGE STATION, Texas — The Lone Star State Incident Management Team from Texas A&M Forest Service deployed to Fort Bend County today, providing resources in support of continued response to severe weather.

The deployment was activated by the Texas Division of Emergency Management and includes 35 team members. The team is setting up a base camp for emergency responders involved in the flood response. The site is to serve as a staging area for resources.

Texas A&M Forest Service also is supporting the Fort Bend County Office of Emergency Management Joint Information Center with public information officers, helping staff District Disaster Chair 16 at the Department of Public Safety office in Rosenburg and the State Operations Center in Austin.

The Regional All-Hazard Incident Management Team network is comprised of responders throughout the state from all walks of life and professions. They are trained to respond to an emergency when called upon either by their local team or by the state. Texas A&M Forest Service has the responsibility of mobilizing teams and individual members in Texas. Currently, in addition to ongoing local responses, regional response members are working with Texas A&M Forest Service in Fort Bend and Brazoria counties.

About the Lone Star State Incident Management Team

When a disaster occurs in Texas and it exceeds the capabilities of the local government, the Lone Star State Incident Management Team may be ordered by the Texas Division of Emergency Management (TDEM) to respond. The team adheres to the Incident Command System (ICS) which allows the IMT to organize and respond to any type of disaster — including wildland fires, hurricanes, floods, tornados and such events as the Space Shuttle Columbia recovery. LSSIMT members are capable of remaining active on an incident for up to 21 days at a time and must be self-sustaining for 72 hours.



For updates on this situation, please follow

Fort Bend County Office of Emergency Management http://www.fbcoem.org

Texas A&M Forest Service social media:

https://twitter.com/AllHazardsTFS

https://www.facebook.com/texasforestservice

https://twitter.com/TXForestService



Contact

Kristen Newman, Public Information Officer, knewman@tfs.tamu.edu, 254-218-2224

Texas A&M Forest Service Communications Office, newsmedia@tfs.tamu.edu, 979-458-6600



To subscribe to TFS News please go to http://tfsweb.tamu.edu/subscribe. To unsubscribe from this mailing list, please send an email to this address: TFS-INCIDENT-NEWS-SIGNOFF-REQUEST@LISTSERV.TAMU.EDU Nothing is required in the body of the message. You will receive a confirmation email that you have been removed.

[srainhoutx]

Update from Jeff:

Training band of thunderstorms developing along and S of US 59 from Wharton County to NE Harris County.

Radar trends indicate intensification and consolidation of this line and heavy to excessive rainfall is becoming increasingly likely under this band. Will need to watch trends closely to see how this development unfolds over the next few hours.

Grounds are completely saturated and additional heavy rainfall will run-off quickly into area watersheds.

Discussion:

Mid level low pressure system over SW TX clearly visible on satellite images this afternoon with good rotation and disturbances rotating around the low. Air mass over TX remains extremely moist with favorable low level inflow continuing to pump tropical moisture into the region. Surface heating this afternoon has resulted in a gradual destabilization of the air mass allowing bands of thunderstorms to develop which are now focusing in WSW to ENE bands. Will continue to deal with this pattern for the next 60 hours with several rounds of thunderstorms likely with heavy rainfall.

Expecting another widespread 3-6 inches of rainfall with isolated totals up to 8 inches. Some portions of N Harris County have had nearly 9 inches of rainfall in the last 24-hrs. Air mass remains very capable of producing excessive hourly rainfall rates of 2-3 inches per hr.

[jojotheidiotclown]

This weather pattern is down right depressing. I see that next week some sun comes back in the forecast, is there hope for a more permanent pattern change to a more typical summer pattern of heat and sun?

[Katdaddy]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
639 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL WHARTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
WEST CENTRAL BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHERN FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 830 PM CDT

* AT 636 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA FROM NEAR NEEDVILLE TO BRAZOS
BEND STATE PARK TO NEAR BONNEY. ONE TO THREE INCHES INCHES OF RAIN
HAVE ALREADY FALLEN. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
NEEDVILLE...HOLIDAY LAKES...FAIRCHILDS...WESTERN BAILEY`S PRAIRIE...
BONNEY...BRAZOS BEND STATE PARK...DAMON AND ROSHARON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...COUNTRY ROADS...FARMLAND...AND OTHER LOW LYING
SPOTS.

[Rip76]

Non-stop tropical downpours in Pearland area.

[houstonia]

As the ULL slowly migrates East it would make sense that new bands would form or associate with those boundaries, with series of cells moving through...in a more tropical pattern probably than what we saw last week. Very interesting... an extratropical upper level land system attempting to mimic a diffuse, but very large, semi-organized tropical depression...

And if you look at the national radar, it looks like the outer bands might be impacting a large area, extending to Oklahoma City and Memphis...

[kayci]

FM 1462 shut down between Brazos River and Oyster Creek... wondering how much further the shut down and evacuations will go.....

[tsb2107]

Long time lurker first time poster. Is North Houston Metro Area in the clear? It looks like most of the stuff in the Gulf is headed east of 45. Are we expecting more rain from the West?

[srainhoutx]

Long time lurker first time poster. Is North Houston Metro Area in the clear? It looks like most of the stuff in the Gulf is headed east of 45. Are we expecting more rain from the West?

Glad you are here. Carefully watching recent development near San Antonio. We appear to have until at least Saturday for potential weather worries.

[jasons2k]

watching the band to the sw

[Rip76]

It appears to be on the move westward?
No?

[jasons2k]

I had another 2.00" this afternoon/evening.

[Ptarmigan]

Code: Select all

000
FXUS64 KHGX 030201
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
901 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
AT 01Z, a weak surface trough extended from near Crockett to la
Grange to a weak area of low pressure near Cotulla. Plenty of
moisture was available at 850 mb with 850 mb dew pts between 12
and 14 degrees. A well defined 850 mb low was located over central
Texas. Moisture was also quite plentiful at 700 mb with the low
extending up to 700 mb and looks nearly vertically stacked. The
position of upper low was further west and located over west-
central Texas with upper level winds still splitting over deep
south and east Texas.

Water vapor imagery shows another disturbance southeast of the
Big Bend heading east and timing of this feature should help to
enhance precip between 07-09z. The disturbance coupled with the
diffluent upper level winds and abundant moisture should allow
for additional shra/tsra later tonight. Short term guidance is a
bit muddled with the RAP very aggressive with rainfall tonight but
the HRRR more benign and shifting the heavier rain axis to the
east. Conditions just look too favorable to ignore so will
maintain the Flash Flood Watch and the high PoPs. Will tweak min
temps and sky cover in the short term. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

AVIATION...
The upper low was nearing Hondo at 6 pm, and should continue
meandering slowly eastward. This will keep the terminal sites
under favorable airmass for shower and thunderstorm development
through the next 24 hours.

Most confident with the first 4 to 6 hours. Area of moisture
convergence will keep storms over KIAH, KHOU, and KSGR through at
least mid evening. Also expect KLBX, KGLS, and KCXO to have good
chances for thunderstorms.

Most areas will likely see another round of storms overnight
tonight and then Friday afternoon.

Expect IFR to MVFR conditions in the areas of storms through the
period.

40

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

A bit concerning tonight. A upper air disturbance over Big Bend could help develop more thunderstorms.

[Andrew]

Updated Excessive rain risks