February: Clear Skies & Moderating Temps To End The Month

[Heat Miser]

TxJohn is an "Ed" on steroids. Reverse Phsychology at its finest.

Ed.....
Anyway, I agree that the Meteorologist depend on the models way too much, but it's probably the best way to predict "reasonably" what the weather will do a few days out.
But, there's always that fly in the ointment that could bust the best of forecast.

[srainhoutx]

Euro says no winter storm for SE TX. GFS says cold rain. Bummer. The trend is warmer n a bit drier.

IF we do get anything it won't be anything serious.

Maybe next time

Oh really? That certainly looks like a Coastal Low/trough to me and temperatures are certainly not overly warm. Shouldn't you be trolling David Paul on Facebook?

[wxman57]

IT WAS supposed to be in the 50s today. the models didnt get it right. and thats less than 12 hours. so it amazes me that you have people on this board model hugging the gfs for something 5-6 days away. if the models cant get our temps right 12-24 hours ahead of time how can you trust a model for 5-6 days out? quit model hugging people

Earlier this week, the GFS was indicating highs in the 40s today with light rain after a frontal passage this morning. The high today was in the mid 60s this morning. If anyone forecast the temp to hit the 50s this afternoon then he/she wasn't looking at any model guidance.

In fact, here's the GFS meteogram from yesterday morning, indicating temps steadily falling into the low 40s with light rain this afternoon.



The models have done fairly well once the event is within 2-3 days. Beyond then, there will likely be some changes in the projections. Model trends are a good indication of the changes to come. You can't ignore the trends.

[wxman57]

I prefer to think of myself as a realist. While I'd like to see snow as much as any of you (even though I hate cold), I don't let my desire to see snow affect my forecast. Current data do not indicate any snow for Houston later this week. The trend is toward cold rain, if anything.

[TxJohn]

I prefer to think of myself as a realist. While I'd like to see snow as much as any of you (even though I hate cold), I don't let my desire to see snow affect my forecast. Current data do not indicate any snow for Houston later this week. The trend is toward cold rain, if anything.

Thank you for keeping it real. I agree...I won't live in a fantasy world like others. The trend is there...don't be disappointed next weekend folks

[Brandy3835]

Will we just see cold rain in Beaumont Thur/Fri as well?

[TxJohn]

we shall see....can't wait for Friday. the disappointment...the models are more reliable than wishcasting.

[srainhoutx]

It's a long time until Friday. I believe we do a rather good job of discussing trends and possibilities on this Weather Board. While we may agree to disagree at times, we are very fortunate to have Decades of weather forecasting experience right here in our Weather Community. There is a lot of uncertainty still in the forecast for Thursday night into Friday. That pesky Coastal trough/low is a big wildcard, if it develops. I'm not looking forward to the 50% chance of Thunderstorms and 36F that HGX currently is forecasting for my area.

[skidog40]

37 katy

[don]

Fwiw 18z Gfs is colder again with temps in the low to mid 30s with overrunning precip. Lets see if this is the beginning of a trend, or if the model will continue to flip flop...

[TxJohn]

Low 30s won't give us snow. It'll give us a chance of sleet if upper air dynamics are right. If it ain't 32 degrees...I personally won't hold my breath. But it'll be really fun to see what develops.

[txsnowmaker]

Low 30s won't give us snow. It'll give us a chance of sleet if upper air dynamics are right. If it ain't 32 degrees...I personally won't hold my breath. But it'll be really fun to see what develops.

You obviously weren't around here in December 2008 (or have a very short memory), when it snowed in Houston in the mid/upper 30s when a cold core upper level low traversed the area. Under certain conditions, snow can even fall above 39F.

I have my own personal (and obviously unofficial/non-meteorological) doubts about snow in Metro Houston this winter, but that doesn't entitle me or anyone else to our own set of facts. Onward, and let Mother Nature do as she may.

[Ptarmigan]

You obviously weren't around here in December 2008 (or have a very short memory), when it snowed in Houston in the mid/upper 30s when a cold core upper level low traversed the area. Under certain conditions, snow can even fall above 39F.

I have my own personal (and obviously unofficial/non-meteorological) doubts about snow in Metro Houston this winter, but that doesn't entitle me or anyone else to our own set of facts. Onward, and let Mother Nature do as she may.

The December 2008 was caused by a cold upper level low. It was not cold before.

Temperature 3 days before and after snow on December 10, 2008.
12/7/2008 65/38
12/8/2008 72/45
12/9/2008 78/43
12/10/2008 43/32 1.40 Inches Snow Fell
12/11/2008 56/33
12/12/2008 64/32
12/13/2008 72/38

Most of December 2008 was warm and even hit 80 on December 19th.

It can snow in March, which happened once on March 10, 1932.
http://www.wxresearch.com/snowhou.htm

[Paul Robison]

What are the dangers, if any, posed by this trough of low pressure that is forecast to move east out of the southwestern US next Thursday and Friday?

[JulieC]

Well, there is no point in arguing here about what the weather will do as NOBODY really knows unless you are a fortune teller. There are just a lot of "could be" and"maybe" and there is no use in arguing about that. I like to come here and read the "behind the scenes" discussions before the tv folks make the forecasts. I have always been interested in the reasons why we have the weather that we have, I just couldn't cut the math and science that would have been required for me to officially study it! I'm glad you guys are here to explain complicated forecasts in layman's terms but I could do without the arguing and the insistence who will be right in the end. Thanks for what you do and the service you provide to novice weather nerds like me. JMO.........

[SusieinLP]

I'll hug the first model that shows 2" of rain with temps at 80. This game is awful, BTW

[TexasBreeze]

The only thing that turned out good in the game so far is the weather...

[TexasBreeze]

True good point.

[cristina6871]

I was talking to my mom about the 1973 rare snow storm (I was just a tot). And she mentioned another snow event in the very early 1990s. Just curious, when might that have been. It wasn't just a dusting according to her.

[redneckweather]

Cristina, she might have been talking about the big arctic blast right before Christmas in 1989. I believe Houston Metro and surrounding areas saw 1-3 inches out of that. I don't remember anything in the early 90's but I could be wrong.